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Showing posts with label The Div Guy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The Div Guy. Show all posts

Stock Screen: Oil and Gas Transport Plays

BusinessWeek has a great screen of oil and gas transportation stocks by Beth Piskora. These stocks have held up well over the last couple of years and have been my top performers.

Stock Screen: Oil and Gas Transport Plays
Quick: name an industry group where the average dividend yield is hovering around 11%. If you guessed utilities, real estate investment trusts (REITS), or banks, you're wrong. But if you guessed oil and gas transportation companies, that would be correct.

Most oil and gas pipeline companies are set up as Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), which means they must, by law, distribute their earnings, just like REITs do. That makes them good choices for income-focused investors, in our view.

"The distribution—or dividend—level is a very important driver of investor interest in this group," explains Tanjila Shafi, a Standard & Poor's equity analyst. "The companies know this, so they are working very hard not to cut the payouts. They are doing other things like cutting capital expenditures to preserve capital, just to maintain the distribution levels."

Shafi recommends only six MLPs, and believes all six should be able to maintain their distribution levels this year. She also believes that they, as a group, are the strongest companies in the industry, have good balance sheets, and are more likely to be able to tap the capital markets. She notes investors may find other MLPs with higher dividend yields, but recommends for purchase only these six, each of which carries an S&P investment ranking of 4 STARS (buy) or 5 STARS (strong buy).

Company Ticker S&P STARS Rank (2/12/09)
Energy Transfer Partners ETP 4
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners KMP 5
Magellan Midstream Holdings MGG 4
NuStar Energy NS 4
Oneok Partners OKS 4
Plains All American Pipeline PAA 4


Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of KMP and OKE which owns part of OKS at the time of this post.

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Are Dividends in Dire Straits?

BusinessWeek has an interesting article on the state of dividends by Ben Steverman. Are Dividends in Dire Straits?

Many companies, especially banks, have had to slash or eliminate payouts. How low will dividends go?

Companies continue to slash dividend payments to shareholders, as firms rush to hold on to capital amid the continuing credit crisis and deteriorating economy.

The latest to slash its payout is financial firm State Street (STT), which on Feb. 5 dropped its quarterly dividend from 24¢ to 1¢ per share. On the same day, auto and truck dealer Penske Automotive Group (PAG) suspended its dividend.

In the past two months, corporate boards have cut dividends by half or more at Macy's (M), Pfizer (PFE), and Constellation Energy Group (CEG). Dividends have been eliminated—or nearly so, with payouts slashed 96% or more—at Bank of America (BAC), Motorola (MOT), and Citigroup (C).

The trend is disturbing to investors, who especially appreciate dividends at times of economic uncertainty.

"Investors are really looking for yield, and they're looking for safety," says Bruce Bittles, R.W. Baird's chief investment strategist. "Companies that cut their dividend take away both."

Howard Silverblatt, Standard & Poor's senior index analyst, says actual dividend payments by firms in the S&P 500 index plunged 23.9% in January. (S&P, like BusinessWeek, is a unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP).) "It's going to be a bad dividend year," he says, predicting 2009 will be "the worst in at least 50 years."

Financial Crisis Is a Huge Blow
Thanks to the financial crisis, it's no surprise that many of these dividend-cutters are banks. To make up for large losses and shore up their capital, financial firms aren't just cutting dividends but also taking federal government bailout money.

Dividend cuts may actually be a positive for already-battered financial firms. A dividend cut can help avoid other less attractive options for raising cash, such as issuing new stock, which dilutes current shareholders' stakes. "It's the lesser of two evils," Plesser says.

The S&P Dividend Aristocrats is a list of 60 large-cap U.S. firms that have raised dividends every year for the past 25 years. The list will look very different next year. By announcing dividend cuts, several prominent firms, including Bank of America, State Street, Fifth Third Bank (FITB), and Pfizer, are set to break their streaks. Newspaper firm Gannett (GCI) is also likely to lose its crown; on Jan. 30, the firm said its board would consider a dividend cut later this month.

Still, many less troubled firms are hanging on. A healthy number of firms continue to raise dividends, even if shareholders are seeing smaller increases. AT&T (T) claimed its 25th annual dividend increase in December, when it inched up its payout by 2.5%. The year before, AT&T's dividend had risen 12.7%.

In this environment, any increase in dividends, no matter how small, can help inspire the confidence of market players desperate for some safety and stability. However, the overall trend of falling dividends gives investors one less reason to get excited about stocks these days.
Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of BAC, PFE and C at the time of this post.

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Dividend Stock Review: Royal Bank of Canada (RY)

OK, so I bought another bank stock. I guess I can't help myself but I recently purchased shares of Royal Bank of Canada (RY). Thanks to the large drop in the prices of financials, that sector of my portfolio is now very small and I can beef it up with another bank. I looked for one of the more conservative banks that has not had problems with bad CMO's on the books. Here is a run down on the bank.

Royal Bank of Canada is Canada's largest bank by both assets and market capitalization. The company has four business segments: Canadian Banking, Wealth Management, U.S. and International Banking, and Capital Markets.

Canadian Banking provides about 55% of total revenues through its personal banking, business financial services, cards and payment solutions, and insurance businesses. RY has the largest retail banking network in Canada, with over 1,100 branches and 3,900 automated banking machines.

Wealth Management is about 17% of total revenues and is largely comprised of RBC Dain Rauscher, the wealth management arm of RY in the U.S., which ranks seventh for full-service securities firm in the U.S. The wealth management group has a network of over 3,300 financial consultants. With C$13.1 billion mutual fund assets under management, RY is the largest mutual fund provider among Canadian banks. RY's focus in wealth management is on high net worth clients with more than C$1 million in investable assets.

U.S. and International Banking is around 8% of revenues and offers personal and business banking and retail brokerage services in the U.S., banking in the Caribbean, and private baking services internationally. RY's U.S. banking arm, RBC Centura, ranks among the top 15 in deposit market share in the southeastern U.S., and has a network of 350 branches and 395 ATMs.

RBC Capital Markets, 19% of revenue provides corporate and investment banking, sales and trading, and research to corporations and public sector and institutional clients in North America and select global markets. The segment consists of two main businesses, Global Markets and Global Investment Banking and Equity Markets, and has a 50% ownership in RBC Dexia Investor Services.

RY's central corporate strategy revolves around its "Client First" approach, which focuses on enhancing client satisfaction and loyalty. The company seeks to be the leader in financial service in Canada and to leverage its distribution capabilities across business lines. In the U.S., RY is focusing on its primary advisor strategy and on delivering a broader suite of wealth management products at RBC Dain Rauscher.

The company is combining its capital markets and wealth management operational activities to create an integrated investment bank. RY has recently taken steps to accelerate its expansion through both new branch openings and acquisitions. Outside North America, the global private banking business is increasing scale through target acquisitions, and building additional distribution capabilities.

The company is also interested in building on its strong position in Caribbean banking, expanding opportunistically in China where it sees competitive advantages.

Over the past five years, RY's return on equity rose from 15.0% to 24.6% in 2007 and currently 23.0%.

S&P has a BUY rating for the stock and a 12 Month Target Price of $33.00

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of RY at the time of this post.

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Dividend Stock Review: Seagate Technology (STX)

I purchased my first technology stock since 1999. I have followed Seagate Technology for a few years and finally purchased some shares late this week. I had been looking to purchase a technology stock that paid dividends as well. The company cut it's dividend earlier this week but the stock still yields over 3%.

Seagate Technology is one of the world's largest manufacturers of hard disc drives. This technology is used to store information in computers and other electronic devices, and almost all of the company's revenues are derived from the design, manufacture, and marketing of these hard disc drives. A limited amount of revenue (less than 1%) is generated by its wholly owned subsidiary, EVault Inc., which provides data storage services for small to medium-size businesses. The company's products are marketed under the Seagate Technology and Maxtor Corporation brand names.

The company has used acquisitions to strengthen its core business, while also expanding into newer, but potentially lucrative end-markets. In January 2007, the company acquired EVault Inc. for $187 million and expanded into the online data storage market. In May 2006, Seagate acquired a key competitor, Maxtor Corporation, for $1.9 billion.

I believe weak demand, along with some price deflation, will hurt STX margins and net income during the rest of 2009 which should then look to rebound some in 2010. I expect restructuring will help lower the company's high cost structure. I explect STX to continue free cash flow generation later this year and to maintain its leading market share position.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of STX at the time of this post.

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Taxation of Master Limited Partnerships

Dividend Tree recently asked me about the distributions from Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) which is a Master Limited Parnership (MLP) . MLPs are not like regular corporations and do not get taxed on income. Instead they tend to return most of their income (typically 85 to 90%) to investors or partners through quarterly distributions. This shifts the tax responsibility to the partners, who are taxed at their ordinary income rates. Since ordinary income rates of investors are typically lower than the income tax rates of corporations, this proves to be advantageous to the MLPs and hence their investors. Here is a good article from Forbes by Joseph Tatusko talking about the stability, tax benifits and strong performance in a low interest rate environment of MLP's.

Income Pipelines
In times of heightened uncertainty and higher volatility, it's important to be reminded that not all markets or sectors misbehave or perform similarly when the going gets tough. Master limited partnerships (MLPs) have been an exception to the malaise in equities the first several weeks of 2008 and as a group appear very well positioned to benefit from lower interest rates.

MLPs don't always perform in the same manner as other traded equities because they differ in several key aspects. MLPs do not pay corporate income tax, and they return most of their free cash flow, often referred to as distributable cash flow, to investors in the form of quarterly cash distributions. The average distribution yield now stands at 7.5%, which can be especially appealing to income-oriented investors, particularly in light of today's bond yields of 5% and less.

MLPs also possess a unique tax advantage in that 80% to 90% of distributions typically are tax-deferred for federal income tax purposes. The distributions are subject to tax only when the units are sold, and if the units are held for more than a year, they are taxed as long-term capital gains (currently 15%) rather than ordinary income (marginal rates as high as 35%), as is the case for corporate bonds.

MLP price performance in January illustrates several important characteristics that MLPs historically have demonstrated over longer periods of time--namely low correlation to other equities (prices don't move together) and lower price volatility (prices don't move as greatly). The Westport Resources MLP Index was unchanged over this turbulent past month, while the S&P 500 was down 6%, indicating that low correlation between MLPs and other equities has continued through January (0.37 correlation between MLP Index and the S&P 500 over the past year).

So far, 2008 is shaping up to be a good year, as most MLPs appear poised to feast on the Fed's rate-cut diet. MLP prices in the past have been negatively correlated to interest rates--low rates good, high rates not so good. This shouldn't be too surprising, since a low interest rate environment means lower debt expense for the MLPs and increased interest from investors seeking more attractive yield plays.

Important considerations when evaluating MLPs include distribution growth potential and coverage, cash flow stability, leverage, underlying commodity risk, growth opportunities and capital expenditure plans.


Below are six MLPs that investors might consider purchasing after performing their own due diligence.

MLP Description
Amerigas Partners (APU) Residential and commercial propane distribution
Buckeye Partners (BPL) Pipelines--refined products
Enterprise Products (EPD) Pipelines--natural gas & crude oil
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) Pipelines--natural gas, CO2, crude
Oneok Partners (OKS) Natural gas gathering & transportation
Sunoco Logistics Partners (SXL) Pipelines & storage--refined products & crude oil

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of KMP and OKE(OKE owns part of OKS) at the time of this post.

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Finding True Value in Master Limited Partnerships

While many of my bank and finacial stocks such as American Capital (ACAS) did poorly in 2008. I am happy to say my largest holding Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) performed very well for the year. I am going to add some more pipeline companies to my mix of stocks for their consistent dividend payments and stable share price. I think Master Limited Partnerships such as KMP will do well in 2009 and for the long term.

KMP is down about 15% for the year versus a 40% drop in the S&P 500. KMP also paid out over 7% in distribtions for the year. Here is an article from Morningstar going over Master Limited Partnerships such as KMP. Finding True Value in Master Limited Partnerships

First off, with numerous MLPs in 5-star territory, one needs to consider other factors beyond the star rating to find the business offering the best risk/reward profile. This may also help one consider how large to size one's investment. After all, our Consider Buying price is the point at which you should consider buying units, but "consider" implies deliberation, in our view. In addition to our fair value uncertainty ratings and fair value estimates, we suggest MLP investors weigh these factors.

Consider Commodity Price Exposures
MLPs that gather and process natural gas tend to be more exposed to commodity price movements than traditional pipeline MLPs. The difference in the price of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs), known as a frac spread, can make or break processing margins, and because NGLs tend to be priced off crude oil, processing margins have dropped close to zero in recent weeks. While MLPs can hedge out most of their exposure, it's difficult to impossible to hedge all exposures. However, we see opportunity in fee-based gatherers and processors such as Western Gas Partners (WES) and Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS), which have sold off along with other gas gatherers and processors but are significantly more insulated from commodity prices.

Look for Good Coverage
MLPs with high distribution coverage have a better ability to weather the tough market. That's why we looked favorably on Energy Transfer Partners' (ETP) third-quarter decision to maintain rather than raise its distribution. By holding the distribution at second-quarter levels, Energy Transfer was able to increase its distribution coverage and retain the additional cash to help fund future growth. While traditionally MLPs targeted a 1.1x coverage ratio, in this market we are looking for MLPs that cover distributions by 1.4x or better.

Liquidity Matters
Along the same lines, we think liquidity may be the greatest advantage for an MLP in this market. Having cash on hand or available through credit lines gives MLPs a cushion against the unexpected. Liquidity also can allow an MLP to continue its growth plans, and we continue to think that MLPs with strong balance sheets will be the likely buyers if the industry consolidates. As we recently noted, investment-grade MLPs that can raise capital are doing so, and we think this is a mark of prudence.

The Winner's Circle
So which MLPs make the grade by avoiding undue commodity exposure, maintaining strong distribution coverage, and working from a secure liquidity position? We've picked five names that we think do an exceptional job of balancing distribution stability with distribution growth. Any one of these, in our view, presents a compelling risk/reward proposition.

Energy Transfer Partners
With a successful debt offering adding to the company's liquidity position and several years' worth of major projects just recently entering service, we think Energy Transfer will be able to maintain its growth momentum. We would not be surprised if Energy Transfer slowed or halted distribution growth in 2009, but we would expect to see any nondistributed cash deployed to fund growth projects, generating solid returns in years ahead.

Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)
Weak demand for refined products, particularly gasoline, has hurt Magellan's throughput volumes this year, but we don't think cash flows are likely to suffer nearly as much as throughput. Investments in storage assets and terminals plus an inflation-adjusted pipeline tariff should continue to enable Magellan's steady growth.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD)
Enterprise has $2.2 billion in available liquidity and stable, fee-based assets stretching across the entire midstream energy value chain. Its cash position should allow Enterprise to continue its investment program without tapping equity markets in 2009, and it also puts Enterprise on our short list of potential industry consolidators.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP)
While the majority of Kinder's cash flows stem from predominately fee-based pipeline transportation contracts, nearly a quarter of Kinder Morgan's cash flows are derived from oil production through its CO2 business. We've long admired Kinder's very conservative hedging program that locks in selling prices for up to five years, creating a predictable, stable cash flow stream.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA)
As the largest operator of crude oil transportation and storage assets in the United States, Plains All American is in a great position, in our view, to benefit from falling oil prices. When oil is cheaper on the spot market than in the future, producers and traders are willing to pay premium prices to store oil at Plains' Cushing facility. We think this market dynamic will continue to benefit Plains over the next several quarters.

Bonus Round--General Partner MLPs
We feel compelled to mention that, in our view, among the most attractive MLP investments available to investors today are general partner MLPs. Three of the MLPs in our winner's circle--Energy Transfer Partners, Magellan Midstream Partners, and Enterprise Products Partners--have publicly traded general partners-- Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Magellan Midstream Holdings (MGG), and Enterprise GP Holdings (EPE)--and each of these general partner MLPs have in recent weeks traded at or above the yield of their underlying MLP.

This just doesn't make much sense to us, and it smells like an opportunity. General partner MLPs hold incentive distribution rights (IDRs) in their underlying MLP, and these IDRs provide general partners with an increasing claim on cash payouts over time: As an MLP increases its distribution to limited partners, its general partner will see its share of total cash distributions increase. Thanks to this incentive structure, we can work out the distribution math and know that, for instance, if Magellan Midstream Partners increases its distribution by 8%, its general partner, Magellan Midstream Holdings, will be able to raise its distribution by about 15%. In exchange for faster distribution growth, we'd expect to see MGG trade at a lower yield.

So what does it mean that a general partner and its underlying MLP are trading at or near the same yield? To us, it means that the market is penalizing the perceived riskiness of general partners' cash flows to such an extent that the growth premium we'd expect to see is canceled out. But if we're confident in the underlying MLP's cash flows and in its ability to grow its distribution over time--a confidence we have in all five of our winner's circle picks--then what we see in the market is an opportunity to buy distribution streams growing 1.5 to 2.0 times faster than those of the underlying MLP at the same price--or, in other words, free growth.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns share of KMP at the time of this post.


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Reasons to buy stock now

The markets have not been kind this year and just about every sector has taken a big hit. I just read an interesting article that give some reasons to buy stocks now. Manuel Schiffres has written Six Reasons to Buy Stocks Now and here are some highlights.

Many investors are angry, frustrated and disillusioned with stocks. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some people have decided to swear off stocks forever. Others may be wondering how much more pain they can endure before they also bail out. Those reactions to the bear market are no surprise.

1. Stocks are battered and cheap. Between its peak on October 9, 2007, and its low on November 20, 2008, Standard & Poor's 500-stock index plunged 52%. That makes this bear market the worst since the Great Depression (through December 12, the S&P was 44% below its high).

2. Stocks are overdue. Let's not forget that the current bear market is the second megacollapse of this decade. From December 31, 1999, through December 11, 2008, the S&P 500 produced an annualized return of -4.0% (if you invested $10,000 in an S&P 500 index fund at the start of 2000, the fund would be worth roughly $6,960 today).

3. The low-risk alternatives are pathetic. Yes, we all know the old Will Rogers line that you should be more concerned about return of investment than return on investment. But will you really be satisfied with a ten-year Treasury note that pays a mere 2.5% (or a T-bill that yields virtually nothing)? It won't take much for stocks outpace the risk-free alternatives.

4. It's not the 1930s. Yes, the economy stinks. Joblessness is up, a growing number of companies are filing for bankruptcy, and consumer spending and sentiment are in the tank. But the economy is nowhere near a depression, which by one popular definition is a decline in real growth of at least 10%.

5. The market shows signs that the worst is over. Between November 20 and December 15, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 11 of 16 trading sessions. Perhaps more significantly, the stock market has risen on days when the news has been awful -- for example, on December 5, when the government reported that the number of jobs lost in November was the highest since December 1974, and on December 12, the day after authorities accused Wall Street legend Bernard Madoff of orchestrating a fraudulent investment scheme that could cost his clients as much as $50 billion.

6. If not now, when? Say you've sold a bunch of stocks and plan to reenter the market when things look better. Or perhaps you have inherited some money and are waiting for the "right time" to put it to work. The chances that you'll nail the right time -- or come anywhere near it -- are slim.

Why? Bear markets almost always end in an atmosphere of deep gloom, and stocks start going up well before the economy bottoms. For instance, the month with the previous record for most jobs lost was December 1974. The horrific 1973-74 bear market bottomed in October '74. But most people are constitutionally incapable of pulling the "buy" trigger when the news is unfailingly bleak.

If you wait for the news to get better, however, you'll almost certainly miss the initial leg of the next bull market. And the early moves are typically fast and furious. T. Rowe Price, the fund company, looked at returns of the S&P 500 following each decline of at least 20%. In those six instances (not counting the current bear market), the S&P has been up an average of 31% in the subsequent year. The lesson: Not owning stocks can also cost you dearly.


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Stock Screen: Low-Beta Dividend Stocks

After nursing my wounds from recent dividend cuts, I thought a screen of Low-Beta stocks is what the Dividend Dr. would recommend. BusinessWeek has a screen of Low-Beta stocks by By Beth Piskora of S&P. I will remove the non-dividend stocks from the screen. Stock Screen: Low-Beta Beauties

S&P's latest list finds top-ranked stocks that tend to be less volatile than the broader market. Among them: PepsiCo, and Wal-Mart.

The risk metric known as beta can be a useful investment criterion during these times of market volatility.

An issue with a beta of 1.5, for example, tends to move 50% more than the total market in the same direction. An issue with a beta of 0.5 tends to move 50% less. If a stock or stock fund moved exactly as the market moved, it would have a beta of 1.0. Thus, high beta is typical of a volatile stock, while a low beta is typical of a stock that moves less than the market as a whole. A stock with a negative beta moves in the direction opposite to that of the market. With a beta of -1.0, a stock has the same volatility as the market, but tends to rise when the market falls, and vice versa.

Stock fund betas are calculated once a month using 36 months of return data.

Considering the overall market's performance over the past three years, we screened for four- and five-STARS stocks with negative betas (suggesting inverse performance) or a positive beta of 0.25 or lower.

Company/S&P STARS Rank
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)/5 STARS
Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC)/4 STARS
BB&T Corp. (BBT)/4 STARS
General Mills (GIS)/5 STARS
Kinder Morgan Energy (KMP)/5 STARS
NuStar Energy (NS)/4 STARS
Owens & Minor (OMI)/4 STARS
PepsiCo (PEP)/4 STARS
Southwest Airlines (LUV)/4 STARS
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)/5 STARS
Wells Fargo (WFC)/4 STARS
Zions Bancorporation (ZION)/4 STARS

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Stock Update: ONEOK (OKE)

I started purchasing shares of ONEOK (OKE) which is pronounced One Oak back in November of 2005 at around $27 a share. The stock performed very well over the next few years and hit over $50 a share in mid 2008. OKE has now retreated to around $26 a share. I think OKE looks like a great value and a fairly safe dividend yield of 5.8%. Here is an excellent recent write up of OKE by DIV-Net's Eric J. Fox of the Stock Market Prognosticator and founder of Brittain Capital Management, LLC. Oneok May Be The One (OKE)

Oneok Inc. is a diversified energy company with two segments: Energy Services and Distribution. The company also owns a 47.7% stake in Oneok Partners L.P. (OKS), a master limited partnership that owns pipeline and processing infrastructure.

Energy Services
The Energy Services segment markets natural gas and related services to residential and commercial customers. Operating income here is more volatile and has declined from a peak of $229 million in 2006 to the $93 million guidance that Oneok is giving for 2008. Operating income is heavily dependent on the Rockies-to-Mid-Continental price differential in natural gas.

Growth Area
The company achieves growth through its partial ownership of Oneok Partners L.P. The partnership owns gathering and processing assets to service the nation's growing need for natural gas. Assets include 14,500 miles of natural gas and natural gas liquids pipelines, and 13 processing plants with 725 MMcf/day of capacity. Oneok is the general partner of the limited partnership.

The company had $2 billion of internal growth projects that have been, or will be completed through 2009, and there are $300-500 million per year in new projects planned for 2010 to 2015. Projects expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2008 or 2009 include gas gathering and processing projects in the Williston Basin, and a natural gas pipeline extension between Wisconsin and Illinois.

Although high growth usually means high risk, 60% of the profit at Oneok Partners is fee based, lending stability to the company's earnings.

Slow and Steady Wins the Race
The distribution business is the company’s legacy business. This unit is a traditional local distribution company (LDC), and it handles two million customers in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. The rates that Oneok charges are regulated by the state authorities in the respective states that Oneok does business in. The unit is expected to have $2.1 billion in revenues in 2008, and the company is guiding to $186 million in operating income in 2008.

Some investors have criticized the company for keeping what is considered a slow growth business. However, because its business is heavily regulated, it has consistent and stable cash flows.

Financials
Oneok had $335 million in cash at October 31, 2008, and a total debt to equity of 56%. The company paid a 40 cent dividend last quarter, and its trailing yield is 5.4%. Oneok has increased its dividend at a compound annual growth rate of 16% since 2004. Other companies with high dividend yields in this space include Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) with a trailing yield of 9.9%, and TEPPCO Partners (TPP) with a trailing yield of 13.3%.

Risks
These types of companies are not without risk. In July 2008, SemGroup Energy Partners LP (Nasdaq:SGLP), lost 50% of its value in one day after its parent company and large shareholder revealed that it made a large losing bet on the direction of Oil prices. SemGroup Energy Partners LP was heavily dependent on its parent for a large percent of its revenues.

Oneok is a safer bet during the Energy bear market due to its legacy distribution business, and high dividend yield.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of OKE at the time of this post

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Dividend Stock Review: Benton, Dickinson & Co (BDX)

Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) is a global medical technology company that is focused on improving drug delivery, enhancing the diagnosis of infectious diseases and cancers, and advancing drug discovery. BDX develops, manufactures and sells medical supplies, devices, laboratory instruments, antibodies, reagents and diagnostic products through its three segments: BD Medical, BD Diagnostics and BD Biosciences. It serves health care institutions, life science researchers, clinical laboratories, the pharmaceutical industry and the general public.

BDX has a corporate strategy to drive revenue growth through investment in innovation and to drive operational effectiveness to accelerate performance and fund innovation. BDX has increased revenue over 10% per year for the last six years and has profit margins over 51% using this strategy. BDX has four strategic focus areas: Reduce spread of infection, Advance global health, Enhance therapy and Improve disease management.

Reduce Spread of Infection
BDX has a number of initiatives in the area of reducing the spread of infection. They have products that focus on areas such as health care worker safety, patient safety, detection of sexually transmitted disease, rapid diagnosis of infectious diseases, rapid detection of health care associated infections. They also have systems and software that can link these areas to provide fast delivery of results.

Advance Global Health
Global health is also an focus of BDX and they are the leader in HIV/AIDS & TB detection and monitoring. They also train health care providers in using their equipment to provide strong laboratory skills. The are also a leader reuse prevention through low cost auto disable devices for immunization.

Enhance Therapy
Products to enhance therapy such as stem cell research and the manufacture of cell culture media supplements to enhance drug production. They are also the leader in prefillable devices which helps reduce potential for medication error. BDX is also creating micro-delvery systems that have ultra tiny needs that size of a human hair for vaccines in agreement with Sanofi Pasteur.

Improve Disease Management
BDX working to improve disease management in the areas of diabetes and cancer diagnostics. They are a global leader in insulin injection and the pen needle market with innovation coming with their Untra-Fine mini pen needle. They also are creating new and innovative solutions for monitoring and detecting ovarian cancer.

BDX reported quarterly revenues on November 5 of $1.836 billion for the fourth fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2008, representing an increase of 11 percent over the prior year period. This quarter’s growth rate reflects the favorable impact on all segments from foreign currency translation, which overall is estimated to account for 5 percentage points of the increase in quarterly revenues.

For the full fiscal year ended September 30, 2008, BD reported record revenues of $7.156 billion, representing an increase of 13 percent over the prior year, which reflects an overall estimated 6 percent favorable impact from foreign currency translation that affected all segments.

"We are pleased to report another strong year for BD, one in which we exceeded our strategic and financial goals despite a challenging business environment," said Edward J. Ludwig, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. "All segments contributed to our success and growth. Implementation of disciplined spending controls enabled us to expand our operating margins as we continued to make significant capital and R&D investments to support our innovation strategy."

BDX has been increasing R&D spending through improving profit margins that will lead to growth through new innovations. The company will also benefit from low oil prices that will keep down the cost of resin which is used in most of their products. I believe BDX will be a great long term dividend stock that will benefit from the aging population and the increasing levels of obesity in the world.

Disclosure: The Div Guy own shares of BDX at the time of this post.

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Dividends Stocks: The S&P Elite

BusinessWeek has a stock screen by Standard & Poor on it's website that selects the best dividend stocks. The screen looks at S&P Dividend Aristocrats companies that have boosted their payouts in each of the past 25 years along with a top S&P STAR rating. Dividends Stocks: The S&P Elite

We screened for those members of the Dividend Aristocrats—the full list of all such companies can be found here—that also have an S&P investment ranking of 4 STARS (buy) or 5 STARS (strong buy), suggesting expected out performance in the coming 12 months, and that have not cut dividends this year.

Average Yield Tops 4%
Looking beyond the Dividend Aristocrats to the broader S&P 500 index, S&P Senior Index Analyst Howard Silverblatt of S&P Index Services, which operates independently of S&P Equity Research, uncovered some interesting statistics.

Looking at Telecom Services, Utilities
Increasingly, investors are well advised to search for income-producing stocks outside of the financial-services sector. Silverblatt says the telecom-services sector has a dividend efficiency ratio (percentage of dividends divided by percentage of market value within the S&P 500) of 2.1—much higher than the 1.43 dividend efficiency ratio posted by the financials. The utilities sector also has a high dividend efficiency ratio.

Twenty-eight names are featured on the screen, with all 10 S&P sectors represented.


Company (Ticker)
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Aflac (AFL)
Air Products & Chemicals (APD)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
BB&T (BBT)
Becton, Dickinson (BDX)
Century Telephone (CTL)
Chubb (CB)
Coca-Cola (KO)
C.R. Bard (BCR)
Emerson Electric (EMR)
ExxonMobil (XOM)
Family Dollar Stores (FDO)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Johnson Controls (JCI)
Kimberly-Clark (KMB)
McDonald's (MCD)
Nucor (NUE)
PepsiCo (PEP)
PPG (PPG)
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Questar (STR)
Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL)
Stanley Works (SWK)
3M (MMM)
VF Corp. (VFC)
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT)
W.W. Grainger (GWW)

Disclosure: The Div Guy own shares of ABT, XOM, JNJ, PEP and PG at the time of this post.

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New Dividend Stock: Unilever (UN)

I recently started purchasing shares of Unilever (UN) over the past few weeks and here is a review of the stock.

UN was formed in 1930 when the Dutch margarine company Margarine Unie merged with the UK's Lever Brothers Ltd. The two companies pooled their interests through a business merger instead of a legal merger. This was simplified considerably in 2006 when shareholders voted at the AGM in favor of establishing a one-for-one equivalence of the NV and PLC shares. Today, Unilever is a leading global supplier of consumer goods across a wide range of food, home and personal products categories. In 2007, the group had sales of $55 billion and an underlying EBIT margin of 12.3%.

The Food businesses, accounting for 54% of sales and 55% of operating profit in 2007, consist of two broad product areas: Savoury, Dressings & Spreads and Ice Cream & Beverages. The Home and Personal Care areas accounted for 46% of sales and 45% of operating profits in 2007.

UN has benefited from the 'Path to Growth' strategy in terms of expanding margins, building momentum of key brands, rationalizing costs, and streamlining the asset base. Impressively, the underlying operating margin is rising despite rising input costs in the first half of 2008. In addition, the developing and emerging markets are expected to continue driving incremental top line growth.

Unilever has simplified the management hierarchy whereby the dual chairman structure has been replaced by a structure comprising a single chief executive officer and a non-executive Chairman. The organizational changes will expedite decision-making, improve execution, and enhance customer focus. The one-to-one equivalence between PLC and NV shares should also improve financial transparency.

The company generates strong cash flow, which is being used to increase shareholder value through share repurchases and dividend increases. S&P has a current yield of 4.10% and a $25 target price for the stock over the next 12 months. UN is also a member of Mergents International Dividend Achievers index.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of UN at the time of this post.

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New Dividend Stock Buy: Abbott Labs (ABT)

I recently purchased shares of Abbott Labs (ABT). I believe the stock is a great long term holding with a stable balance sheet, a history of dividend growth and a strong pipeline for future growth. I wish the stock would have drop more in price with the recent market downturn but it is such a solid company the stock is only down about 5% for the year.

Company Description

Abbott is a global, broad-based health care company that develops, manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and medical products, including nutritionals, devices and diagnostics. During 2007, pharmaceuticals accounted for 57% of operating revenues, while nutritionals represented
17%, diagnostics contributed 12%, and vascular represented 6%. Sales of other products represented 8%of 2007 sales. The company employs more than 68,000 people and markets its products in more than 130 countries. The company is headquartered in north suburban Chicago.

Healthy Growth

The company recently posted strong results for the third quarter. Earnings per share of 79 cents surpassed the year-prior 67 cents and exceeded the consensus estimate by 3%. Worldwide sales jumped 17.6% on a year-over-year basis.

All of Abbott's businesses are performing exceptionally well, ahead of expectations,' said Miles D. White, chairman and chief executive officer, Abbott. 'Abbott remains well-positioned, with strong core growth franchises, including our emerging vascular business, which is rapidly becoming a significant contributor to Abbott's growth.'


ABT should increase sales at a high double-digit percentage rate over the next several years. EPS growth has been forcasted at 13% through 2010. EPS growth includes expected margin improvement, lower debt levels, a successful U.S. launch of a new drug-coated coronary stent and continued strength in sales of Humira.

Higher Estimates

The company hiked its full-year guidance 2008, and analysts followed suit. ABT increased its guidance to an adjusted earnings per share range of $3.31 - $3.33 from $3.24 - $3.28. All 10 covering analysts responded by issuing full-year forecasts of $3.32 per share, up from last week's $3.27.

Strong Dividend Income

In September, the company declared a quarterly dividend of 36 cents per share, this was the 339th consecutive quarterly dividend paid out by Abbott since 1924. ABT said the payable November 15, 2008, to shareholders of record at the close of business on October 15, 2008.

The dividend translates into a yield of 2.6%, which stands high above the yields offered by its peers as most companies within ABT's industry group offer no dividend.

Abbott stated that it increased its dividend payout for 36 consecutive years, which included a 10.8% increase earlier this year. Also, since the debut of the S&P 500 in 1957, Abbott explained that it has had the second-highest average annual return of all originally listed companies, in part because of its dividend yield.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of ABT at the time of this post.

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Warren Buffet Comment in Today's New York Times

Here are some of the highlights from Warren Buffett's Op-Ed in the New York Times yesterday.

Buffett: I'm buying stocks
Berkshire Hathaway CEO gives advice on how to invest during America's money crisis.

"In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary," Buffett wrote.

But for that reason, the Berkshire CEO said, he has converted his personal portfolio almost entirely to U.S. stocks. Previously, he said he owned nothing but Treasury bonds.

Buffett said the fear surrounding the disastrous credit crisis, which has dropped stocks about 36% from their all-time highs set around this time last year, has left equities with attractive purchasing prices.

"A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful," said Buffett. "And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors."

"Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," wrote Buffett. "Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."

"Bad news is an investor's best friend," Buffett said. "It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."

Some of Warren Buffett’s top stock holdings:
Coca-Cola Co (KO)
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
American Express Company (AXP)
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
US Bancorp (USB)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
General Electric Co. (GE)

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of PG, JNJ, USB, BAC and GE at the time of this post.

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Dividend Stock Purchases: PG, JNJ and PEP

The past few weeks have been a very difficult time for most stock investors. The stock markets are down about 40% from recent highs of a year ago. I still like the stocks I hold and I have made some additional purchases this week of my favorite dividend stocks. I don't know when the markets will turn around or if there will be a recession but I know some companies will do well in any environment.

I purchased shares of some of the strongest and financially secure stocks that I feel should do well in a difficult market. The three stocks I have purchased are Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Pepsi (PEP). I feel these companies will continue to do well in a difficult economy. I talked to some business leaders today about their employees taking steps to cut personal excess spending and tightening budgets. They told me about employees changing their vacations plans and decreasing discretionary spending. They also said their companies were implementing hiring frees and cutting capital spending project for the foreseeable future.

Many people will stop making big ticket purchases in a economic downturn but they will still purchase consumer goods, food items and medicinal supplies. That is why I feel PG, JNJ and PEP will be great dividend stock picks for our current environment. I also just read a write up on JNJ by by Gene Marcial of BusinessWeek. Here are some highlights:

Marcial: J&J, a Healthy Defensive Play

When things get tough in the stock market, it's time to play defense—and offense. That's the strategy of savvy professional investors as the major U.S. equity indexes spiral downward.

But in the worst of times, the markets create value for those willing to pluck out the "angels" that have fallen hard. Of course, investors should always strive to pack their portfolios with defensive stocks that are of star quality even in good times—companies endowed with strong balance sheets, robust cash flows, and rising sales and profitability, with little or no debt and handsome dividends to boot.

When the market crashes, as it is bound to do—the current environment being a perfect example—investors should be prepared to snap up quality stocks like those at a huge discount.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), one of the world's largest and most diversified health-care companies, is one such stalwart—both a defensive and offensive play. A major force in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer products, J&J draws its strength and sustaining power from diversification. Many of its consumer products are widely known brands, including nonprescription drugs like Tylenol and Imodium A-D antidiarrheal medication, Johnson's baby line of products, and its Band-Aid line.

"J&J's diversified sales in these three sectors, along with its decentralized business model, has served it well in the past and should continue to do so in the years ahead," says Herman Saftlas, health-care analyst at Standard & Poor's, who rates the stock a strong buy.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of PG, JNJ and PEP at the time of this post.

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Dividend Stock Review: Newell Rubbermaid (NWL)

I have purchased a few shares of Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) and will look to purchase some additional shares of at the stock as the consumer products market starts to make a comeback. Here is a review of NWL:

Newell Rubbermaid (NWL) is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products with sales of approximately $6 billion and a strong portfolio of brands, including Sharpie®, Paper Mate®, DYMO®, EXPO®, Waterman®, Parker®, Rolodex®, IRWIN®, LENOX®, BernzOmatic®, Rubbermaid®, Graco®, Calphalon®, Levolor® and Goody®. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Ga., and has approximately 22,500 employees worldwide.

Products are sold through four business segments: cleaning, organization & decor (33% of 2007 sales), office products (32%), tools & hardware (20%), and home & family (15%). About 28% of 2007 sales were made outside the U.S. Sales to it's largest customer, Wal-Mart Stores and its subsidiaries, amounted to about 13% of sales in 2007.

NWL has four major strategic initiatives: 1) Create consumer-meaningful brands. The company believes that consumer-meaningful brands create more value than products alone, and that big brands provide NWL with the leveragable economies of scale. 2) Leverage One Newell Rubbermaid. NWL strives to benefit from the sharing of best practices and the reduction of costs achieved through horizontal integration and economies of scale. 3) Achieve the best total cost. NWL's objective is to reduce the cost of manufacturing, sourcing and supplying product on an ongoing basis and to leverage the company's size and scale, in order to achieve a best total cost position in relevant product categories. 4) Nurture 360-degree innovation. NWL has broadened its definition of innovation from product invention to the successful commercialization of invention.

NWL's growth strategy emphasizes internal growth, supplemented by selectively acquiring businesses with prominent end-user focused brands and improving the profitability of such businesses through the implementation of the company's strategic initiatives. Also, NWL is expanding from a U.S.-centric business model to one that includes international growth as an increasing focus.

NWL has struggled since its acquisition of Rubbermaid in 1999 to resume a consistent pattern of growth in revenues and earnings. Current leadership has been focused on improving operating margin, which have improved to 12.9% operating margin, it is still to be seen whether it can return to the pre-Rubbermaid level of better than 15%.

S&P rates NWL a 3 Star Hold rating with a 12 month target price of $19. The current price of NWL as of 10/3/08 is $16.23 with a current yield of 518%.

I believe NWL's new leadership will create better innovation and efficiency, and continue to shed lower margin, often resin-intensive product lines and invest in more profitable categories. When the consumer products market starts to improve, NWL will be positioned to gain market share through better consumer research and greater product innovation.

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns share of NWL at the time of this post.

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Have an Investment Plan for the Long Term

In today's stock market and weakening national economy, it pays to have a solid plan in place to get through these difficult times as well as a plan to get to retirement. My plan includes investing in a diversified portfolio of dividend paying stocks. My justification for investing in dividend stocks is for two primary reasons. First, dividend stocks are usually less volatile than non-dividend stocks and should provide come cushion in a volatile stock market. The other reason is to provide an income that I can retire on combined with my other retirement accounts and possibly social security.

Some of the most difficult times a person face are losing a job and or becoming unable to work due to health issues. Having a plan in place can ease the burdens faced during difficult times. Having not enough cash in reserve and having too little saved for retirement can lead to difficult financial decisions. Let's face it many people today do not have a plan in place to deal with emergencies that will haven over the short term or long term. I found a very interesting article that gives some basics on how to be prepared for a financial crisis before it happens to you or your family. Here are some of the highlights of the story from US New & World Report by Emily Brandon.

Getting Ready for a Surprise Retirement
Work often stops unexpectedly. You'd better be prepared with a financial plan

Paulette Geller thought she had her retirement all figured out. Geller, 64, planned to work until 66 or 67 to boost her Social Security check. Then, after successful foot surgery last year, she was in the hospital being wheeled to her car to go home when she had a stroke.

The stroke caused Geller to lose some technical skills and vision, keeping her from continuing to work as program director for older adults at the Winter Park (Fla.) Health Foundation. "I honestly thought I wasn't going to ever stop working. I was going to cut back to half time or quarter time because I loved my job," Geller says. Suddenly, "I couldn't do my job anymore, but it wasn't on my timeline and I wasn't in control." Now Geller gets disability payments that amount to 60 percent of her former salary and pays for COBRA health insurance coverage.

The vast majority of baby boomers want or plan to work in some capacity as long as they can. Eighty-four percent of people between the ages of 51 and 70 expect to work after they formally retire, and nearly two thirds say they can't see themselves ever retiring completely, according to a survey by management consulting firm McKinsey Global Institute. The McKinsey analysis also indicated that 60 percent of boomers will need to work in order to maintain something like their current lifestyle.

But retirement is something that can happen while you're making other plans. "It's far more commonplace for retirement to come earlier than expected than for it to happen according to some plan," says Marc Freedman, founder and CEO of the think tank Civic Ventures and author of Encore: Finding Work That Matters in the Second Half of Life. "It's important for people to begin saving to anticipate a period of a year or two, or sometimes longer, where their income is going to drop and they need to retool for another phase of their working lives."

An Urban Institute analysis offers a sobering look at what can go awry with your retirement plans. It looked at people who were 51 to 61 years old in 1992. A decade later, over three quarters of them had lost their jobs, become widowed or divorced, developed new health problems, or were confronted with frail parents or in-laws. Any of those circumstances can take a bite out of retirement plans, if not force workers to scrap them altogether.

A third of the participants had a health condition that limited their work, and 19 percent went through a layoff or business closing, the study found. And laid-off employees who managed to get a new job were less likely to get health insurance and earned about 25 percent less per hour, says Richard Johnson, a coauthor of the study.

Retirement, especially when unplanned, is a major life adjustment. "All of a sudden I felt useless," Geller, who is also twice widowed, says of her unexpected retirement. "I wasn't ready. The part that was the hardest was figuring out who am I without my work, because I had been working for so long." People who retire when they choose to are much happier in retirement than those who retire unexpectedly, according to research by Keith Bender of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. "If you're forced to retire and you haven't hit your saving goal or you separate from your job before you can get Medicare," he says, "[unhappiness can] persist at least through 10 years, if not more."

Here are tips for regaining control of your retirement:

Organize your finances. "You've got to start thinking at any point I could be retired," Bender says. "Take a good snapshot of where you are financially and think, 'If I am forced to retire in the next year or two, what does that mean for me personally or financially?' " Building up an emergency fund can help. Also, consider disability payments, health insurance until Medicare eligibility kicks in at age 65, life insurance to support any dependents, and long-term-care insurance.

Research the job market. Many people forced or enticed into early retirement have to find a new job to "cheer up your 401(k)," as Susanne Johnson of Long Grove, Ill., put it. When she was 56 in 2002, Johnson decided to retire early from United Airlines. Her retirement package included inexpensive health insurance until she became eligible for Medicare, free or low-cost flights when space was available, and a reduced pension. She then got another job with a bank but was laid off in a merger when she balked at relocating. Johnson would like to work until 66, her full Social Security age, but for now she's networking and job hunting.

Educate yourself. Keeping your skills current or developing new ones by taking classes can help keep you employed at any age. That way, "even if you get ownsized, someone will want to hire you," Mitchell says.

About a third of people over 50 end up back in the workforce after having considered themselves retired, according to research by Sewin Chan of New York University. "We hypothesize that they are returning because, once retiring, it's not what they thought it would be and they take a dent to their asset portfolios," she says. But employers don't always want older workers, who are often more expensive than their younger counterparts and tend to have more health problems.

Make a new plan. Ideally, you will find a new job or activity that gives you the control you had over your finances while you were working. Fran Doll, a former small-business owner in Akron, Ohio, found herself suddenly retired at age 56, when a routine mammogram found a tumor. Within a year, Doll endured two rounds of chemotherapy, radiation treatment that burned her lung by mistake (a rare complication), a partial mastectomy, and a nearly monthlong hospital stay. She hit bottom when she was transferred to a nursing home.

But Doll, now 67, took back control of her retirement. "Most important is having a succession plan and being proactive if you are diagnosed with a serious illness," she says. She sold her employment service, Superior Staffing, to two of her six children, and the care of her family helped her recover and move back home.


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Dividend Stock Review: Corning (GLW)

I have added Corning (GLW) to my watch list and will look at the stock as a possible buy over the next few months. Here is a review of GLW:

GLW makes high technology fiber optics for the global telecom industry and high performance glass components for the personal computer and television maker industries. Their primary business segments as of the first half of 2008 are display technologies which is 50% of sales and 56% net profit, telecommunications which is 27% of sales and 4% net profit, environmental technologies which is 12% of sales and 10% net profit, life sciences which is 5% of sales and 15% of net profits, and specialty materials and other which make up the remaining 6% of sales. In 2007, 54% of overall sales were in Asia.

The display technologies segment manufactures glass substrates for active matrix liquid crystal displays (LCDs), which are used primarily in notebook computers, flat panel desktop monitors, and LCD televisions. GLW recently announced their third-quarter profits would come in less than expected. Recent demand has been lower for their LCD display units used in flat-screen TVs and PC monitors, and that's going to cut earnings at its largest division, .

"We continue to see evidence of ongoing strength in the retail market for LCD TVs, a key growth area for the LCD glass industry," CEO Wendell Weeks said in a prepared statement. "However, the supply chain correction, as outlined in our second-quarter conference call, is taking longer than we expected. We believe that the set assembly portion of the supply chain built too much inventory in the first half of this year. As set assemblers have continued to hold back on orders, panel makers have lowered prices and reduced utilization rates to balance the supply chain. We think these utilization cutbacks will continue into September in Taiwan."

However, GLW believes that the market for Generation 5.5 to Generation 8.0 glass substrates (60% of fourth quarter 2007 production) will rise faster in 2008. As end-user customers such as Sharp, Samsung and Sony move to Generation 8 from Generation 5.5, Corning will be able to make twice as many panels for LCD TVs per substrate and have wider margin.

GLW has very solid financials, they had $3.5 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in debt as of the end of June 2008. In 2007, GLW instituted a dividend for the first time since 2001 and announced a $500 million share buyback program. The current yield of the stock is 1.17% at the current price of $17.09 per share.

GLW believes demand for LCD TVs will generate significant glass demand well into the next decade and their portfolio of businesses will help deliver solid growth. S&P currently has a 4 star buy recommendation on GLW.

Disclosure: The Div Guy does not own shares of GLW at the time of this post.

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One of the toughest decisions: When to Sell

It seams like I can always find a stock to buy but deciding when to sell a stock can be a very difficult decision for many investors. When purchasing a stock I now try to have a plan in place on when I will sell the stock. Kiplingers has a very good article I like to look back on for guidance. The post is called "When to Sell a Stock" and it gives four signs when it may be time to sell a stock. There are no foolproof plans for investing but having a plan for selling and buying can help make the investment process easier.

When to Sell a Stock
To make the decision easier, look for these four signs.
By Cameron Huddleston

The right time to unload shares is one of the toughest calls investors have to make. Even professional traders and money managers admit it can be difficult. "It's a lot easier to buy a stock than to sell a stock," says David Giroux, manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund.

That's because if you sell when a stock is down, you feel like you're giving up, Giroux says. And it rarely feels right to sell when a stock's price is soaring -- even though that can be the best time to sell.

Now, there's nothing wrong with holding a stock 20 or more years -- if it's the stock of an exceptionally well run company, says Giroux, who tends to hold stocks for three to five years in his $10.5 billion fund. But even if you're a buy-and-hold investor, you need to learn to say "sell" sometimes.

The market's recent volatility might be making you want to say, "Sell it all. I'll sit this out until things calm down." But you shouldn't let fear guide your investment decisions. Instead, look for these four signs to help you decide if the time is right.

1. A change in the company's fundamentals. Usually the best clue for when to sell a stock comes from the issuing company, itself. If a company's earnings stop growing, if its top management quits or is forced out, if it stops creating new products, or its products aren't receiving regulatory approval, the company's shares could be headed for a fall. Kiplinger's Portfolio Tracker can help you keep tabs on a company's performance.

One sure sign of trouble is if a company is having cash-flow problems, Giroux says. A cash flow statement gets to the guts of a business -- the cash it receives and the cash it pays out. It's especially handy when researching companies that don't have profits. You can find the information in the company's annual reports, accessible on its Web site, or sites such as Yahoo! Finance and Zacks.

Giroux says look for changes in free cash flow: 1. Is operating cash flow growing slower than net income? 2. Is inventory rising faster than sales? 3. Are receivables rising faster than sales? These are early warning signs that it might be time to sell
the company's stock.

2. The stock's too hot. If a company's stock price is soaring but its fundamentals, such as earnings growth, aren't following suit, it's time to sell, says Jerry Jordan, Jr., manager of Jordan Opportunity fund. A stock with an especially high price-earnings ratio may be the victim of investors' unrealistic expectations. To calculate this familiar measure of a stock's value, divide the current share price by the company's earnings per share.

You can compare a stock's P/E with that of the overall market, the average P/E of its industry, or against the company's past P/Es. If the company's ratio is unusually high, it could have a hard time sustaining that price.

Jordan recommends picking a target P/E when you first invest in a stock. If the price jumps but the earnings keep up, you won't have to sell. This method can help give you the discipline to dump the stock before it becomes overpriced.

3. The stock's not keeping up. The market's rallying, but your stock isn't. This can be a sign to sell, Jordan says, especially for popular or trendy stocks that tend to move in sync with the market. For example, if stock was $100, drops to $80 but doesn't bounce back or even falls below that level, sell.

4. The stock is taking over your portfolio. If you went into your stock purchases aiming for diversification, revisit your portfolio once a quarter to see if your holdings are still in balance. If you have one or two big winners and their futures still look bright, you may want to consider taking some profits off the table -- and adding to your other holdings -- just so you won't be overexposed if the unexpected happens.

Don't put much stock in technical signals

Sometimes investors use technical analysis to gauge when to sell shares. But Giroux says there is no proof these signals are accurate over time.

Among the more commonly used technical signals are the 200-day moving average and the support line. With both, you're supposed to sell when a stock's price falls below a certain point -- regardless of what's going on with the company's fundamentals.

You won't get them all right

Even when the warning signs are there, sometimes it still can be hard to let go of a stock. For example, Jordan says he's kicking himself for holding on as long as his did to shares of Merrill Lynch, whose chief executive was forced out on October 30 after the company announced a $7.9 billion write-down of debt and subprime mortgage assets. In November, Jordan still had 4.5% of his fund's assets in Merrill Lynch, according to Morningstar.

"I realized it wasn't working, but I had no idea they were doing as bad a job managing their money as they were," he says.

Ideally, you sell a stock when it's up so you can make a profit. But sometimes you have to cut your losses and sell when a stock is down.

Remember, you get a break on capital gains taxes if you've held the stock at least a year (a 15% tax rate for most people). If you're sitting on a loser, there's even a consolation prize: Losses offset capital gains -- from other sales, for example, or mutual-fund distributions -- and, if you have more losses than gains, up to $3,000 of net loss can be deducted against other kinds of income.


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Stock Screen: Warren Buffett Picks

On BusinessWeek,com, S&P's Howard Silverblatt has a great screen with the selection criteria that Warren Buffet uses for his portfolio. Stock Screen: Buy 'Em Like Buffett

Warren Buffett has earned a reputation as one of the preeminent value investors of all time. His Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) holding company has stakes in insurance, publishing, retailing, and manufacturing, among other businesses, and more than $28 billion of cash on hand, in addition to $102 billion of securities.

But like others in the financial services industry, Berkshire Hathaway has fallen on troubled times. Its second-quarter earnings report, posted in mid-August, showed a 7.5% decrease in earnings from the year-earlier period, mostly the result of a 43% drop in underwriting profits and a mere 2.6% rise in investment income. In that report, Buffett disclosed he had purchased, for Berkshire's investment portfolio, a new stake in NRG (NRG), and added to already existing stakes in Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) and Ingersoll-Rand (IR).

But how does Buffett make his picks? What exactly is "Warren's Way?" In his rare public remarks and widely followed annual letters to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett makes it sound very simple: He says he buys stocks that are "available at a sensible price."

In fact, Buffett uses sophisticated screens to determine which companies belong in his portfolio. Specifically, he uses these five investment criteria:

•Free cash flow net income after taxes, plus depreciation and amortization, less capital expenditures) of at least $250 million.

•Net profit margin of 15% or more.

•Return on equity of at least 15% for each of the past three years and the most recent quarter.

•A dollar's worth of retained earnings creating at least a dollar's worth of shareholder value over the past five years.

•Ample liquidity. Only stocks with a market capitalization of at least $500 million are included.

In the Standard & Poor's "Warren Buffett" screen, we've added one more criterion to eliminate overvalued stocks. Overpriced stocks are identified by comparing our five-year discounted cash flow (DCF) (BusinessWeek.com) estimate with the current price.

Here are the 49 names that emerged when the screen was completed:

Alcon (ACL)
ASML Holding (ASML)
Autodesk (ADSK)
C.R. Bard (BCR)
Baxter International (BAX)
Becton, Dickinson (BDX)
BG Group (BRGYY)
Brown-Forman (BFB)
Canadian National Railway (CNI)
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Franklin
Resources (BEN)
Freeport-McMoran (FCX)
Garmin (GRMN)
Genentech (DNA)
Grupo Televisa (TV)
Halliburton (HAL)
Infosys Technologies (INFY)
Intercontinental Hotels (IHG)
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Lam
Research (LRCX)
McDonald's (MCD)
MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Mobile Telesystems (MBT)
National Semiconductor(NSM)
Novo-Nordisk (NVO)
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
Oracle (ORCL)
Partner Communications (PTNR)
Philadelphia Cons. (PHLY)
Philippine
Long Distance (PHI)
Qualcomm (QCOM)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Reynolds American (RAI)
SAP (SAP)
Satyam Computer Services (SAY)
Schlumberger (SLB)
SEI Investments (SEIC)
Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL)
Stryker (SYK)
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
TD Ameritrade (AMTD)
Telefonica (TEF)
Tenaris (TS)
T. Rowe Price (TROW)
Turkcell
Iletisim (TKC)
Vimpel Communications (VIP)
Wipro (WIT)
Wolters
Kluwer (WTKWY)

Disclosure: The Div Guy owns shares of JNJ at the time of this post.

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