Recent Posts From DIV-Net Members

Marching Margins

We often talk about profit margins when comparing companies. Analyzing the profit margins of a company can help you determine its profitability relative to its competitors. For example, if two competitors have equal net incomes but one has twice the profit margin of the other, then over time we may see the more efficient company steal market share and grow at a faster rate. (This can happen for several reasons, one being that it can simply lower its prices until its competitors are no longer profitable, thus dominating the market.)

One type of profit margin is a company's gross profit margin, which is its gross profit divided by its revenue. Gross profit gives a pretty good indication of a company's pricing power versus its product costs. In a previous post, we saw that Coke has a gross profit margin of 64%, indicating
people are willing to pay quite a bit more for Coke's products than it costs Coke to produce them.

While Coke has been able to sustain a strong margin for a long period of time, for most companies, attractive margins don't last long. This is because competitors are attracted to industries where profitability is high. To illustrate this, consider the net profit margins of the industries depicted below as they were in 2005:

Notice the high profitability of financial and energy companies. This high profitability in the finance industry is likely one reason that all sorts of new financial products and structures came into being: profits were high, and therefore the industry grew by pushing product proliferation to new heights. In the energy sector, the strong profits depicted above helped spur new oil exploration and new investment in alternative energies. In the past, this has led to increased oil supplies and reductions in the cost of energy, though these changes have taken time. While it remains to be seen if this process will occur once more in the next few years, it remains a distinct possibility.

When analyzing a company, be sure not only to consider its net income, but also the profit margins that contribute to that income. Compare the margins to competitors, and consider whether the company has a "moat" that can protect its margins from the competition. While margins are important, note that they are not the end-all be-all when it comes to profitability, as they don't consider asset utilization. A company able to generate revenue and income on fewer assets is preferable to one that constantly needs capital infusions to grow.


This article was written by Saj Karsan of Barel Karsan. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.



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Top 4 Things You Should Do Now As an Investor

Ok, forgive the super dramatic title. However, I am a firm believer that there are certain things every investor must do from time to time to ensure that their portfolio is acting as it should. As a do-it-yourself investor, these things are super important because you are the only one working on your portfolio. If you use an advisor, these actions are just as important to do however you need to push that advisor to do them! If you have already done these things then you should be in good shape. If not, then schedule some time over the next week to do them.

1. Check the Fees you Pay
As time goes on, fees suck more and more money out of your portfolio. Nowadays, there is often no real reason to pay more for things like commissions, RRSP (or 401K) fees, and MERs. Take a look at the fees you are paying and ensure they are the lowest you can possibly get. If not, call your broker and find out why.

2. Verify your Asset Allocation
Your asset allocation will play a huge part in the future success or failure of your portfolio. If your asset allocation is not balanced or is wrong for your risk tolerance then you need to fix it now. Review your risk tolerance and then get and read The Four Pillars of Investing and adjust as necessary.

3. Check Your Individual Stock Holding's Performance
If you are an individual stock holder - even of dividend growth stocks - then it is very important not to "set it and forget it". At least once per quarter you need to check each stocks performance. How were quarterly sales? Did earning actually go up or was there some funky accounting going on? Did it beat all its industry peers? If not, then you need to find out why and be comfortable that the reasons are valid enough for you to continue holding.

4. See if You Can Save More

Life goes on, raises at work happen, expenses go up and down - life just happens. What you set aside for investment savings one year ago may not be all you can now contribute to your dividend growth fund or overall portfolio. Have a look at what you put aside every month and see if there is now room to contribute a little bit more. It does not need to be much - even an extra $10 can have dramatic compounding effects.

I know there are many other things that should be done today - if you have suggestions then use the comments section to let us know about them.

This article was written by The Dividend Guy. You may email questions or comments to me at info@thedividendguyblog.com.


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Stock Analysis: Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Automatic Data Processing Inc. is one of the world's largest independent computing services companies, provides a broad range of data processing services.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
ADP is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 10.5% discount to its calculated fair value of $43.47. ADP earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
ADP earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. ADP earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45% and also earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1974 and has increased its dividend payments for 34 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
ADP earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $9,903. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as ADP has. If ADP grows its dividend at 15.3% per year, it will take 2 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 3.9%. ADP earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 2 years is less than the 5 year target.

Other: ADP is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. ADP has a strong balance sheet and a steady cash flow stream. The company's free cash flow is more than double its dividend. ADP repurchased 33 million of its shares in FY 2008. As the economy continues to slow in the near-term, ADP will face slower employment growth. Long-term opportunities for earnings growth should come from small and medium-sized business market and overseas. Risks include intense competition, threat of new entrants, along with failure to further penetrate small and midsized domestic business and international markets.

Conclusion: ADP earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks ADP as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $108.65 before ADP's NPV MMA Differential dropped to the $500 that I like to see for a stock with 34 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.18%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.6%. This dividend growth rate is significantly lower than the the 15.3% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. ADP has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a medium risk stock.

ADP is the leader in its segment. Barriers to entry are high requiring a sizable infrastructure to serve a large number of employees. With its low debt and strong free cash flow ADP is an attractive buy at prices below $43.47. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in ADP (1.1% of my Income Portfolio).

What are your thoughts on ADP?

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This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Weekend Reading Links - September 27, 2009

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Intangible Assets

I very much dislike intangible assets, the growth or continued presence of them on a balance sheet always throws up a red flag for me. Maybe it is due to my value investor perspective but giving financial credence to a resource that I can't see, can't touch and can't prove generated a cent of revenue in a business is something I just don't like.

Definition

An asset that is not physical in nature. Corporate intellectual property (items such as patents, trademarks, copyrights, business methodologies), goodwill and brand recognition are all common intangible assets in today's marketplace.

Intangible Assets Do Exist

Surely the brand Coca-Cola carries some value in its name alone. If a consumer is provided the option of buying Coke or a noname product for the same price there will be a pronounced inclination towards the Coke product. How you value this on a balance sheet is a question that businesses and investors both struggle with.

As KPMG states, with reference to intangible assets:
It is difficult to think of another class of corporate asset which is subject to such careless stewardship. This is particularly apparent when it comes to the governance of intellectual property, as many intellectual property based relationships depend upon self-reported activity.

The successful policing of these self-reporting entities is a matter of real importance in the post-Enron environment. Declarations made under self-reporting relationships almost invariably reveal misreporting when properly examined.
As it is a business' responsibility to assess the value of these intangible assets errors are common place. In Michael F. Price's introduction to Benjamin Graham’s book The Interpretation of Financial Statements he describes his first encounter with intangibles when doing analysis of Schaefer's Brewery:
I called Schaefer's treasurer and said, 'I'm looking at your balance sheet. Tell me, what does the $40 million of intangibles related to?' He replied, 'Don't you know our jingle, 'Schaefer is the one beer to have when you're having more than one.'?'
Price struggles, as any value investor would, to understanding how a marketing message could possibly be worth $40M.

Specifically Defining Intangibles

The International Accounting Standards Board provides but a few criteria for defining an intangible asset. It must be:
  • identifiable
  • have the power to obtain benefit
  • be able to provide future economic benefits
In layman's terms it has to be specific enough that we can point to it, be able to be sold off now if we needed to, and has the capacity to continue generating financial benefits in the future.

Sound vague? Well it is. So vague is the description that some in the industry have made efforts at self regulation. Among those being the Intangible Asset Finance Society who have made it their intent to provide guidance and direction to businesses on how to properly identify and allocate intangible assets.

How to Work with Intangibles

As an investor you should get into the habit of evaluating a business with its intangible assets completely removed. Do this until such time as you can understand the intangibles well enough to agree with the business’ assessment of their value. Every effort should be excreted to truly understand what these intangibles are. Sometimes that is as simple as it was in Price’s case, sometimes this involves deep analysis. Invariably if you are leaving them in financial calculations without investigation you are doing little more than taking a company at its word.

This article was written by buyingvalue. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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The return of the financial dividends

The financial crisis lead to dividend cuts amongst several prominent dividend payers such as Bank of America (BAC), US Bancorp (USB) and BB&T Corp. (BBT). Over the past few weeks however, several financial companies announced that they might reconsider their current dividend policies and start raising distributions in the near future.

US Bancorp’s (USB) CEO is reviewing the company’s dividend payout, after it paid off $6.6 billion in TARP money back to the US Treasury."You will see us take action in the near-term that will be favorable," to the dividend, the company’s CEO said. The company cut dividends in March by 88% and is currently paying a quarterly dividend of 5 cents/share.

BB&T’s (BBT) President and CEO Kelly King informed shareholders the bank will "revist dividend level as soon as appropriate". The company cut its dividend by 68% in May 2009 in order to be able to repay the US Treasury. In addition to that the Winston-Salem, North Calorila based banking institution sold $1.5 billion in stock.

JP Morgan’s (JPM) CFO was a little less optimistic about the future dividend prospects of his company, citing that the company’s goal is to restore dividend only if economy doesn't "double dip". Despite the fact that he is still cautious on restoring the dividend, the CFO said the bank could raise its dividend to $0.75-$1.00/share. The company cut its dividend by 87% to 5 cents/share in February 2009.

Analysts are also expecting Pfizer (PFE) to increase dividends as well in the near future. Deutsche Bank analysts expect Pfizer Inc to increase its dividend in December. Deutsche Bank sees an increase of 15 percent to 25 percent. Pfizer cut its dividend by 50% in January in an effort to conserve cash in order to pay for its acquisition of Wyeth (WYE).

While I am generally very skeptical about companies which cut distributions, I view companies that begin raising distributions within a year of the cut very positively. It is too early to get excited about the companies listed above however. As long as they fail to actually increase distributions by sending bigger checks to shareholders, then the prospect of them raising dividends is a pure speculation.

Full disclosure: None

- BB&T Corporation (BBT) Stock Dividend Analysis
- Should you sell after a dividend cut?
- Is Pfizer (PFE) a value trap for investors?
- US Bancorp (USB) cuts its dividend by 88%


This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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SYSCO in a Buy Zone

Sysco Corporation (SYS), through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes a range of food and related products primarily for food service industry. It distributes frozen foods, non-food items, restaurant equipment and cleaning supplies. It serves restaurants, hospitals and nursing homes, schools and colleges, and hotels and motels.

SYS is a member of Broad Dividend Achievers and has been raising dividends for last 38 years. The most recent dividend increase was in December 2008. It remains to be seen if it will increase dividends later this year. I had reviewed this stock in February 2008 which at that time was a medium risk to dividend. My objective here is to analyze if SYY still continues to be a good dividend growth stock.

Trend Analysis
This section measures the trends for past 10 years of corporation’s revenue and profitability. The parameters should show consistent growth trends. The image below shows the trend chart.

  • Revenue: Increasing trend in revenue with average growth of 9.4% (3.4% standard deviation). Immediate past five years show reducing trend of growth rates from low teens to high single digits. This is sign of slow down in growth rates.
  • Cash Flow: The cash flow is remaining flat in 2008 to 2009 with minor reduction. Free cash flow is almost equal to net income. The good aspect is that it continues to generate operating cash flow.
  • EPS from continuing operation: In general, the EPS also has an increasing tread (with a blip in 2006 and 2009) with average growth rate as 13.2% (11.1%).
  • Dividend per share: Dividends per share are consistently growing for the last 10 years.


Risk Parameter Calculation
Here I use the corporation’s financial health to assign a risk number for measuring risk-to-dividends. The risk number for risk-to-dividends is 2.00. This is a medium risk category as per my 3-point risk scale. An increasing payout factor, historically high yield, negative EPS growth makes SYY dividend as a medium risk.

Quality of Dividends
This section measures the dividend growth rate, duration of growth, consistency over a period of past ten years.

  • Dividend growth rate: The average dividend growth (17.9%) is higher than average EPS (13.2%) growth rate. The flexibility in payout factor and share buybacks allowed this difference. However, on a longer term basis this is not sustainable.
  • Duration of dividend growth: Dividends have continuously grown for the last 37 years.
  • 4 year rolling dividend growth rate for past ten years: Close to 10% on 4 year rolling basis.
  • Payout factor: Historically, it has been less than 50%. However, the trend is showing that payout factor has been increasing from low 30% to now more than 50%.
  • Dividend cash flow vs. income from MMA: Here, I analyze how the dividend cash flow stacks up against the income from FDIC insured money market account. The baseline assumption is (a) stock is yielding 3.9%; and (b) MMA yield is 3.4%. Considering historical average growth rate of 18.9%, the stocks dividend cash flow at the end of 10 years is 4.0 times MMA income. If we assume my average expected growth rate of 6.4%, then the dividend cash flow is 1.5 times MMA income.

Fair Value Calculation
This section determines what price I should pay to buy a given stock

  • Net present value (NPV) price based on 20 year DCF: $18.21
  • Average high yield price calculated based on past 10 years: $40.1
  • Pricing based on past 10 year relative price-to-earnings ratio. $41.5
  • Pricing based on price-to-earnings ratio of 12: $19.0
  • Graham number: $15.10

The range of fair value is calculated as $20.3 to $26.8.

Qualitative Analysis
The strength of SYY is its well established distribution network and existing leadership position. In context of ongoing economic environment, it has opportunity to grow due to its pricing ability and leveraging existing distribution network.

  • This quantitative analysis shows that, so far, SYY has been able to maintain its historically consistent profitability. It appears that in last few years, the dividend growth is coming from the combination of payout factor and growth in EPS.
  • The flexibility in payout factor, stable profitability, and slow EPS growth provides room for maintaining the consistency is dividend.
  • The revenues are likely to be under pressure. It’s largest customer base is restaurant industry which is expected to have a slow down.
  • Meanwhile, SYS continues to adapt with new initiatives around its core competency.

Conclusion
SYS is an enviable position with largest market share in its market segment. A hallmark of a good company like SYS is that it is always evolving to remain competitive. With negative growth in 2009, it remains to be seen whether management will raise its dividends. The flexibility in payout factor should allow the increase in dividends. The stocks risk-to-dividend number is 2.00 (medium risk category). The stock’s price is within my buy range. I would continue to hold on to my existing position, and wait for dividend increase decision.

Full Disclosure: Long on SYY



This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Timing The Market

Many participants in the stock market base their buy and sell decisions on attempts to time the market. The idea is to buy into the market just before prices rise, and sell before they decline. Many studies have shown that it is very difficult to correctly time the market. But assuming you had superior foresight, how often would you have to be right in order to beat a buy and hold investor?

Chua, Woodward and To took an interesting approach to this question. Using a mean market return of 12.95% and a standard deviation of 18.30%, the authors ran 10,000 simulations of market years where an investor has an assigned probability of correctly determining a bull or bear market. If said investor guessed a bull market, he was credited with the market's return. If the investor guessed a bear market, he was given the T-Bill rate of return. The buy and hold investor always received the market return.

The results were surprising. In order for a market timer to beat the buy and hold investor on average, he had to correctly predict a bull or bear market a full 80% of the time! The authors concluded that the cost of an investor missing out on bull markets was quite high. Timers lost much ground in the years that the market did well where the timers incorrectly guessed a bear market.

However, the standard deviation between the timer and the holder was quite wide, suggesting that many market timers will indeed outperform the holders, and this is the case even at a 50% probability of a correct prediction. As such, timers who are successful will be promoted and we are sure to continue to hear about timers who have beaten the markets. Whether the outperformance as a result of timing is sustainable or simply the result of random distribution is another story. On average, being right 80% of the time would appear to be quite a stretch.

This article was written by Saj Karsan of Barel Karsan. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Stock Analysis: RPM International Inc. (RPM)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of RPM International Inc. (RPM). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: RPM International Inc. makes specialty coatings and products for the structural waterproofing and corrosion control markets, as well as products for the consumer, do-it-yourself and hobby markets.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
RPM is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since RPM's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 76.9% premium to its calculated fair value of $10.31. RPM did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
RPM earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. RPM earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%, and earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1969 and has increased its dividend payments for 36 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
The NPV MMA Diff. of the $302 is below the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as RPM has. The stock's current yield of 4.44% exceeds the 3.9% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Other: RPM is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. Historically, RPM has been able to generate steady operating earnings and free cash flow growth with its diverse product offerings and varied end-markets. The company has maintained its competitive advantages via strong brand identity, high entry barriers, patents, and a good reputation. Risks include outstanding asbestos-related lawsuits, weaker consumer spending and industrial demand and higher raw material costs.

Conclusion: RPM did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks RPM as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $16.26 before RPM's NPV MMA Differential rose to the $500 that I like to see for a stock with 36 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.98%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 2.5%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the the 1.3% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. RPM has a risk rating of 2.25 which classifies it as a medium risk stock.

RPM has a good Free Cash Flow Payout at 49%, and an acceptable Debt To Total Capital at 45% and a good dividend yield of 4.44%. However, with a buy price of $10.31 and a NPV MMA Diff. below my target, I will waitfor a more opportune time to initiate a position. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in RPM (0.0% of my Income Portfolio).

What are your thoughts on RPM?

Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Weekend Reading Links - September 20, 2009

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Obama's Bad News For Investors

While I have often been impressed with both President Obama's speeches and candor I honestly was not a big fan of the President's speech to Wall Street this last week. His comments, in my interpretation, amount to nothing short of bad news for all long term investors.


Obama, in his speech, said:

"Unfortunately, there are some in the financial industry who are misreading this moment. Instead of learning the lessons of Lehman and the crisis from which we are still recovering, they are choosing to ignore them. They do so not just at their own peril, but at our nation's. So I want them to hear my words: We will not go back to the days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess at the heart of this crisis, where too many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses. Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking risks without regard for consequences..."
This speech was not attached to a new regulation bill, or a part of a committee’s recommendations, or even the basis of a new fact finding endeavor- they were just empty words. It has all the effect of a finger wave- a "you should know better". Let’s face facts though if you were the type of risk taker that President Obama was addressing with this speech you have had a phenomenal last quarter since the meltdown. You were, in fact, handsomely rewarded for taking risks. Scolding investors for making money while their bosses praise them for these same activities is not likely to lead to change.

This is bad news for all investors. When the financial world came crashing down many of us were hopeful that this would lead to less speculation and a return to true investing. I for one had hoped that safeguards would be put in place to prevent this from ever happening again. And yet here we are months later and still little, if anything, has fundamentally changed. The market has rebuilt itself again on the same faulty foundations. This is bad news for long term investors.


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Toronto-Dominion Bank Stock Analysis

Toronto-Dominion Bank, through its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and wholesale banking products and services in North America and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, Wealth Management, U.S. Personal and Commercial Banking, and Wholesale Banking. This international dividend achiever and Canadian Dividend Aristocrat has raised dividends for 15 years in a row.

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an average total return of 13.20% annually.

The company has managed to deliver a 5.60% average annual increase in its EPS between 1999 and 2008. Analysts expect Toronto-Dominion Bank to earn $4.98 share next year, followed by a 4% increase to $5.17/share in the year after that.

The Return on Equity has recovered from its 2003 lows of 26% and is at a very impressive level at 42%. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

Annual dividends have increased by an average of 20.50% annually since 1999, which is higher than the growth in EPS. Most of the dividend growth came from the expansion in the dividend payout ratio, which more than tripled from 15% in 1999 to 48% in 2008.
A 20 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every three and a half years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1973, Toronto-Dominion Bank has actually managed to double its dividend payment every six years on average. The company last raised its dividends in 2008.

The dividend payout ratio has more than tripled from 15% in 1999 to 48% in 2008. In 2002 the company lost money, which is why it is at zero for the year. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently the Toronto-Dominion Bank is attractively valued at 17 times earnings, yields 3.50% and has an adequately covered distribution. The main issue with this dividend investment is that it has failed to increase its distributions for five quarters in a row. The company has until the last quarter of 2010 to raise its dividend, or otherwise it would lose its dividend achiever status. In the meantime it is a solid hold for me. That is unless you are looking for some exposure to the financial sector for your dividend portfolio. As such TD could be a nice small starter position to consider.

Full Disclosure: Long TD

Relevant Articles:

- Financial Stocks for Dividend Investors
- Aflac (AFL) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Best International Dividend Stocks
- International Dividend Achievers for diversification

This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Emerson Electric Company – Priced for Long Term Buy

Emerson Electric Company (EMR) is a diversified global manufacturing and technology company. It offers wide range of products and services in the areas of process management, climate technologies, network power, storage solutions, professional tools, appliance solutions, motor technologies, and industrial automation. It is recognized for engineering capabilities and management excellence, Emerson has more than 140,000 employees and approximately 255 manufacturing locations worldwide.

EMR is a Dividend Aristocrat and member of Broad Dividend Achiever and has been raising dividends for last 52 years. The most recent dividend increase was in November 2008. It remains to be seen if it will increase dividends later this year. My objective here is to analyze if EMR still continues to be a good dividend growth stock and how does it rate on my scale of risk-to-dividends.

Trend Analysis
Here I am looking at trends for past 10 years of corporation’s revenue and profitability. These parameters should show consistently growth trends. The trend charts and data summary are shown in images below.

  • Revenue: In general, a growing trend since 2002. The average revenue growth for last 10 years has been approximately 6.8%. Year 2009 is likely to show the weakness and dip in revenue.
  • Cash Flows: Overall, an increasing trend of free cash flow and operating cash flow. It is good indicator that FCF is always greater than income.
  • EPS from continuing operation: In general, it had an increasing trend from 2003 onwards. It is likely to take a dip in 2009.
  • Dividends per share: Slow but increasing trend.


Risk Parameter Calculation
Here I use the corporation’s financial health to assign a risk number for measuring risk-to-dividends. The risk number for risk-to-dividends is 1.43. This is a low risk category as per my 3-point risk scale. The ability to maintain its margins, low payout factor, and low leverage makes it a low risk to dividends equity.

Quality of Dividends
This section measures the dividend growth rate, duration of growth, consistency over a period of past five years.

  • Dividend growth rate: The average dividend growth of 7.1% (stdev. 6%) is little less than average EPS growth rate of 9.3% (stdev. 18%). Dividends are more or less growing along with the earnings.
  • Duration of dividend growth: 52 years.
  • 4 year rolling dividend growth rate for past ten years: Less than 10%.
  • Payout factor: It is 38.6% and has been trending downwards from high of 65% in 2003. It is likely to be higher for year 2009. However, there seems to be sufficient room to sustain and/or grow dividends.
  • Dividend cash flow vs. income from MMA: Here, I analyze how the dividend cash flow stacks up against the income from FDIC insured money market account. The baseline assumption is (a) stock is yielding 3.21%; and (b) MMA yield is 3.4%. With my projected dividend growth of 6.6%, the dividend cash flow is 1.24 times the MMA income in 10 years time period. For dividend cash flow to be twice the MMA income, the pricing has to be $27.00 (i.e. yield 4.89%)


Fair Value Calculation
This section determines what price I should pay to buy a given stock.

  • Net present value (NPV) price based on 15 year DCF: $46.7
  • Average high yield price calculated based on past 10 years: $58.2
  • Pricing based on past 10 year relative price-to-earnings ratio. $38.5
  • Pricing based on price-to-earnings ratio of 12: $32.0
  • Graham number: $12.6

The range of fair value is calculated as $28.7 to $37.4.

Qualitative Analysis
Emerson Electric Co. was founded in 1890, based out of Missouri, and has been paying and growing dividends since last 52 years. What surprised me was EMR’s evolution, its ability to sustain margins and grow, and worldwide reach.

  • Its revenue is pretty diversified in eight product sectors and four global regions. Approximately 23% of its revenue comes from Asia and Latin America.
  • It continues to have stable gross and operating margins. It generates relatively consistent operating and free cash flows. 2009 FCF is expected to be higher than last year.
  • It expects 2009 EPS in the range of $2.20 to $2.30, which leaves room for dividend growth (presently at $1.32).
  • In the most recent quarterly results, CEO mentioned, quote “even under difficult market conditions, Emerson is generating strong cash flow to support our objectives for acquisitions, new technology development, share repurchases and dividends to shareholders”. We have seen many CEOs making such proclamations and then cutting or suspending dividends. However, the key difference here is that the statement is backed by results in company performance.
  • It faces short-to-intermediate term challenge of soft global markets and weaker demand. I believe its strong balance sheet will allow it to wither it and position for next phase of growth.


Conclusion
I like EMR’s diversified revenue stream and geographical presence. Overall, it is a US based company that will provide hedge against dollar fluctuation and proxy for foreign developed/emerging markets. It has been raising dividends for last 52 years. EMR’s end-markets are cyclic and it appears that it knows how to wither such business environments. It has a strong balance sheet and competitive market positioning. The stock’s current risk-to-dividend rating is 1.43 (low risk). The current pricing of $41.17 is tad above my buy range. I recently added new position, and would continue to add as per my allocation whenever it goes near in my buy range.

Full Disclosure: Long on EMR.

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Adams Golf

While the cash for clunkers program did provide consumers with a temporary incentive to open their wallets, consumer spending is expected to remain tepid over the next few months. Consumer confidence is low, unemployment continues to rise, and consumers are increasingly using their incomes to pay down debt. As a result, the market has punished many stocks that sell leisurely consumer goods. But conditions like these tend not to persist for long. In the meantime, investors are offered the opportunity to buy such companies for what appear to be tremendous discounts to their intrinsic values.


Consider Adams Golf (ADGF), designer and distributor of golf clubs. The company has lost money in three of the last four quarters, as customer inventory reductions and reduced consumer demand has caused revenue to drop significantly. But is the company in such dire straights as to warrant its current market valuation? You be the judge.

ADGF trades for just $19 million, but has current assets of $50 million versus liabilities of $14 million, which includes just $5 million of debt. Due to Mr. Market's obsession with current earnings, ADGF offers investors a chance to purchase a cash flow positive (referring to second quarter cash flow from operations) going concern at a discount to its liquid assets.

It could be a while before consumer spending returns to levels where Adams Golf can once again generate net income of several million dollars per year. But with the stock price at this level, investors don't need that to take place in order to make money. As the company aligns its cost structure to the lower level of demand, it will likely return to profitability in the near future, rewarding investors who focus on the long term and who cover their downside risk by purchasing liquid assets with a healthy margin of safety.

Disclosure: Author has a long position in shares of ADGF

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Don't Use the Dow as Your Benchmark

Every investor needs a benchmark. It is important because without some sort of proxy, you will never really know how you are performing. To put it simply, if your portfolio is not beating the overall stock market then you are doing something very wrong and you need to adjust your strategy. Typically, most investors use one of three choices for a benchmark.

The choices are either an ETF or other product that tracks the market using an asset allocation that closely matches your own asset allocation, the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones. Many investors pick the Dow simply because it is very visible in newspapers and other financial media. However, I do not think the Dow is a good proxy to the market and many investors would be better off choosing something like Vanguard's Balanced Index Tracking ETF (VBINX) or even the Russell 1000 or the Wilshire 5000.

Here is why I believe the Dow should not be uses as an investment benchmark:

1. Small Number of Stocks

The Dow only has 30 stocks while the whole market has thousands. No matter how big those companies are or how important they are to the economy, there is no way they can be an accurate representation of the entire market.

2. Stocks are Weighted to Price and Not Market Cap

What this means is that the higher priced stocks in the index tend to move it more than the others. Is a higher share price actually a better company than another one? I do not think so.

3. Stocks Seem to Move In and Out After the Fact

I have really noticed that after the sh$t hits the fan the companies tend to exit the index. Same for when they come it - after the company has skyrocketed. Stick to benchmarks that are more broad and you lose this issue.

4. A Committee Picks Who is In and Who is Out

Some dudes in a room somewhere decide which stocks are in and out of the index. Sounds like active investing to me! I am sure the process is much more pragmatic than it seems, but the stocks in the index seem to be the opinion

Overall, I do not use the Dow to judge how I am doing against the market. I actually use the VBINX as it closely resembles my overall asset allocation (60/40). I feel it is a better proxy with which to judge how I am doing.

This article was written by The Dividend Guy. You may email questions or comments to me at info@thedividendguyblog.com.


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Stock Analysis: Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Leggett & Platt Inc. (LEG). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Leggett & Platt Inc. makes a broad line of bedding and furniture components and other home, office and commercial furnishings, as well as diversified products for non-furnishings markets.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
LEG is trading at a discount to only 1.) above. The stock is trading at a 146.2% premium to its calculated fair value of $7.57. LEG did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Free Cash Flow Payout
  2. Debt To Total Capital
  3. Key Metrics
  4. Dividend Growth Rate
  5. Years of Div. Growth
  6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
LEG earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no years with negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45% and earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1939 and has increased its dividend payments for 37 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
LEG earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $867. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as LEG has. The stock's current yield of 5.47% exceeds the 3.9% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Other:LEG is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. In spite of operating in a cyclical industry, LEG has a long history of profitability and strong free cash flows. LEG's markets have mostly stabilized, but demand will likely be slow until the economy recovers in 2010. The company expects to generate more than $400 million in operating cash in 2009. Risks include poor market conditions and increases in raw materials costs.

Conclusion: LEG did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks LEG as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $21.91 before LEG's NPV MMA Differential fell to the $500 that I like to see for a stock with 37 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.65%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 0.2%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the the 2.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. LEG has a risk rating of 2.50 which classifies it as a high risk stock.

LEG has many good attributes working in its favor including: Excellent Free Cash Flow Payout at 34%, and Debt To Total Capital at 32%, a good NPV MMA Diff. and a favorable dividend yield and a long history of dividend increases. However, LEG is trading significantly above its buy price of $7.57. Near-term I will not be a buyer, but this is a stock I will keep a close watch on. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in LEG (0.0% of my Income Portfolio).

What are your thoughts on LEG?

Recent Stock Analyses:
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Weekend Reading Links - September 13, 2009

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

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Why Fundemental Analysis?

"An object [business] at rest tends to stay at rest and an object [business] in motion tends to stay in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force."Newton's First Law
Investing is done successfully by understanding direction, and velocity, but not by looking at velocity alone.


The Problem With a Velocity Only Focus

Velocity is the speed at which a company is rising. Direction is which way the company is pointing, up or down.

I see so much time spent in the general media trying to predict the future, trying the estimate the velocity of success a company will achieve over the next ten years . This will likely come as little surprise but analysts have absolutely no idea what will happen next year with the company let alone the next ten. This is what I mean by velocity. If a stock analyst spends 100% of their time trying to anticipate the speed at which a company will rise in the future without the aid of a crystal ball of some sort they are most certainly wasting your time.

Why Direction is More important than Velocity
I am not saying the activity of velocity analysis is without merit, velocity is the spice you add on the top of the meal, but not the main course itself. What you really need to understand is what the past can tell you about how the company is run and how healthy it is. Consider this quote from Martin Fridson's from Financial Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide:
"What financial analysts are actually seeking, but are unable to find in the financial statements, is equity as economists define it. In scholarly studies, the term equity generally refers not to accounting book value, but to the present value of future cash flows accruing to the firm’s owners."
The chief purpose of fundamental analysis is then to achieve an understanding of the true equity of a company. What is that business really worth, how does it work, how does it make money. By becoming engrossed in these details a full understanding of the direction of a business can be determined.

Combine the Two

Determine the direction of a company first, spend the majority of your time here. Once you are sure you aren't dealing with the poseidon then start looking at the velocity. Worst case if you are wrong about the velocity at least your ship will still be pointed in the right direction.
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Paychex Stock Analysis

Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides payroll, human resource, and benefits outsourcing solutions for small- to medium-sized businesses in the United States and Germany. This dividend achiever has raised dividends for 19 years in a row.

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an average total return of 3.70% annually.

The company has managed to deliver a 12.60% average annual increase in its EPS between 1999 and 2008. Analysts expect Paychex to earn $1.33 share next year, followed by an 8% increase to $1.44/share in the year after that.

The Return on Equity has recovered from its 2002-2006 lows and is at a very impressive level at 42%. This is especially positive given the fact that the company remains virtually debt free. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

Annual dividends have increased by an average of 23.50% annually since 1999, which is higher than the growth in EPS.
A 24 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every three years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1990, Paychex has actually managed to double its dividend payment every two and a half years on average.

The dividend payout ratio has more than doubled from 35% in 1999 to 81%. The company’s dividend payment looks unsustainable, given the slow expected growth in earnings over the next few years. This could not only hinder any near term dividend growth, but also could place the dividend in danger of a cut. The solid dividend growth over the past few years did not come from EPS growth but mainly from expansion if the dividend payout ratio. In addition to that the company failed to increase dividends in July, which marked the fifth consecutive quarter of unchanged distributions.
A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Paychex is valued at 18.70 times earnings, yields 4.40% and has a dangerously high dividend payout ratio. I view its closest competitor ADP as more attractively valued of the two. ADP is larger, has a more diversified business base, its dividend still has room to grow and is adequately covered by earnings.

Full Disclosure: Long ADP

Relevant Articles:

- Why do I like Dividend Achievers
- Dividend Investing Resources
- My Dividend Growth Plan - Stock Selection
- Don’t chase High Yielding Stocks Blindly

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Does Share Buyback Return Value to Shareholders?

There is a school of thought that companies engage in share buybacks to support the down side of its share price. This is good because it is returning back some of the cash back to the shareholder. Indirectly, it is supposed to help shareholder by returning value. So let us take a look at some examples.

As per Standard and Poor’s research published in December 2007, S&P500 index companies spent (three years preceding the published date):

  • USD 1.318 trillion on share buybacks;
  • USD 1.276 trillion on capital expenditures;
  • USD 0.376 trillion on research and development; and
  • USD 0.605 trillion on common dividends.

To put these numbers in perspective, around that time period, the entire market capitalization of the S&P 500 was approximately $14 trillion. I was under the impression that corporate America spends more in research and development. However, this observation tells me otherwise.

The share buyback was the highest expenditure while dividend comes last. Dividends are approximately half in value than share buybacks. But isn’t share buybacks actually returning value to the shareholders? If that’s the case, why companies are not on buying binge in this market environment? The current environment provides the best buying opportunity for their stock. Shareholders need downward support “now”. Instead companies are saying they are persevering cash. Why didn’t the preserve cash when they had piles of them? The Standard and Poor’s research report made an interesting observation which is as follows:

Quoting from the report: “Traditionally, companies have used buybacks to offset the issuance of employee options, M&A activity, to temporarily support their stock and to reduce their share count. Over the past decade the option portion has accounted for the major use of repurchased shares and actual share reductions the least. Companies usually highlight and lump these expenditures, along with dividends, and present them as a return to investors of shareholder value.”
Majority of the buybacks is to offset the share count change due to exercise of options by the managements and employees. Typically, the majority of the options are held by management and executive teams, while employees’ have minuscule percentage. Buying back the stock provides support and helps keep prices at higher levels, so that management gets higher value for their options. This is an indirect way to pay themselves.

In addition, the reduction in share count helps increase the EPS quarter after quarter (assuming controlled buying through out the year). Here, let us look at PEP, INTC, and GE.


Pepsi: From 2003 to 2007, PEP spent USD 10.298 billion in share buybacks and USD 8.099 billion on dividends. During these 4 years dividends were consistently lower than buybacks. Now the conventional wisdom says the share count should have been reduced by now. The share count reduced from 1.705 billion (2003) to 1.605 billion (2007). This is only 100 million shares. So does USD 10.298 billion buy only 100 millions shares? The math says, USD 10.298 billion/0.1 billion shares, is approximately USD 100 per share. But during this period PEP never went near USD100 per share.


INTC: From 2003 to 2007, INTC spent USD 22.385 billion in share buybacks and USD 8.422 billion on dividends. During these 4 years dividends were consistently lower than buybacks. The share count reduced from 6.487 billion (2003) to 5.818 billion (2007). This is 669 million shares. So does USD 22.385 billion buy 669 millions shares? The math says, USD 22.385 billion/0.669billion shares, is approximately USD 33 per share. But during this period INTC was well under 33 (it was at 33 for brief period around Dec. 2004). Same observation is repeated.


GE: From 2005 to 2007, GE spent USD 25.717 billion in share buybacks and USD 31.264 billion on dividends. Important note is, during these 3 years dividends were consistently higher than buybacks. The share count reduced from 10.484 billion (2005) to 9.987 billion (2007). This is approximately 496 million shares. So does USD 25.717 billion buy 496 millions shares? The math says, USD 25.717 billion/0.496billion shares, is approximately USD 51 per share. But during this period GE was well under 51 (it was never at 51). Same observation is repeated.
It shows that PEP, INTC, GE just bought back shares to offset the options exercised by management and employees. This is an indirect way to transferring profits back in the pockets for management (and to lesser extent employees).


Summary is….
Above examples show that there seems to be a missing fine print which is not being communicated to the shareholders. It appears that managements are more intent towards balancing the options pricing needs (rather than shareholder interests). In these examples, I do not see value being returned to shareholders.


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