Friday, August 1, 2014

Stock Analysis of Occidental Petroleum

Occidental Petroleum Corporation is engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Oil and Gas; Chemical; and Midstream, Marketing and Other. This dividend achiever has paid dividends since 1975 and has managed to increase them for 12 years in a row.

The company’s latest dividend increase was announced in February 2014 when the Board of Directors approved a 12.50% increase in the quarterly dividend to 72 cents /share. The company’s peer group includes Exxon Mobil (XOM), Imperial Oil (IMO) and Hess (HES).

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 18.10% to its shareholders. This was due to the fact that the stock was really cheap a decade ago, coupled with the fact that earnings and dividends per share increased rapidly.


The company has managed to deliver a 13.50% average increase in annual EPS over the past decade. A large portion of the earnings growth occurred in 2004. The rest of the decade has been characterized by fluctuating earnings. Occidental Petroleum is expected to earn $7.15 per share in 2014 and $7.26 per share in 2015. In comparison, the company earned $7.34/share in 2013.

Occidental Petroleum has a record of consistent share repurchases. Between 2006 and 2014, the number of shares declined from 860 million to 801 million.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 17.30% per year over the past decade, which is higher than the growth in EPS. This was mostly possible due to the expansion in the dividend payout ratio over the past decade.

A 17% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling every four years on average. If we check the dividend history, going as far back as 2005, we could see that Occidental Petroleum has actually managed to double dividends every four and a half years on average.

Over the past decade, the dividend payout ratio decreased from 93% in 2004 to 27% in 2006. Since then, it has been increasing gradually to 52.50% by 2013. Based on forward earnings however, the dividend payout will decrease to 40%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

The return on equity has been on a steep decline over the past decade, which to me is a warning sign. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

Currently, the stock is attractively valued, as it trades at a forward P/E of 13.40 and a current yield of 3%. I hesitate on initiating a position in Occidental Petroleum, because I already have ownership in ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell. That being said, the company could be a good investment for those who like to follow spin-offs, and possibly other investing strategies.

Full Disclosure: Long XOM, COP, CVX, BP, RDS/B

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This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter]

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