Friday, August 15, 2014

Stock Analysis of ARCP

American Realty Capital Properties, Inc. (ARCP) owns and acquires single tenant, freestanding commercial real estate that is net leased on a medium-term basis, primarily to investment grade credit rated and other creditworthy tenants. Since going public in 2011, this Real Estate Investment Trust has managed to increase its monthly dividends from 7.3 cents/share to 8.3 cents/share.

However the company has expanded very quickly, which is why I believe that it is difficult to do any quantitative analysis of its financials. This is because FFO/share has had a very different composition in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, due to the rapid growth in assets under this REIT umbrella. As a result, I am going to share mostly a qualitative opinion on the REIT. I purchased a position in this REIT in early 2013, after which I have not added to it. The only exception is that I have some shares in a Roth IRA, where dividends are set to reinvest automatically. I bought the stock because I viewed it as something that is similar to investing in Realty Income in the mid 1990s, before the company became an established REIT.



American Realty Capital Properties currently yields approximately 7.90%. American Realty Capital Properties yields more than Realty Income (O) or National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) or W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC). These other REITs yield 4.90%, 5.50% and 4.30% respectively.  This is because investors view it as a higher risk play than the other triple-net REITs. Investors probably see a higher chance of a dividend cut from American Realty Capital Properties than say Realty Income (O) or National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN) or W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC). On a side note, each one of those other REITs has managed to boost dividends for over a decade, placing them in the ranks of the dividend achievers list I regularly screen for ideas. ARCP on the other hand has only increased dividends for four years in a row, and therefore does not have a long track record.

I am not very happy about the proposed management compensation plan from a few months ago, which entitled the CEO to quite a handsome compensation package, provided that the shares return at least 7%/year. Given the fact that current yield is at 8%, this meant that the goal of management was to extract money from the business for their own gain, rather than work for the benefit of shareholders.

When I bought the shares in 2013, I believed that the company can develop to be the next Realty Income. It has so far developed a big scale, has managed to do a lot of deals in the process, and is very undervalued relative to competitors Realty Income (O), W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC), National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN). However, it is yet to be seen if assets were integrated successfully in order for synergies to be generated. I want to see some clean financials, which would make it easier to do a quantitative analysis that would allow me to compare performance between quarters and years. I am also curious to see where management takes the REIT, after achieving such big scale so rapidly. While I would keep holding on to my shares for as long as the dividend is maintained, I am not sure about adding fresh money there. Of course, if shareholder fears are overblown, this REIT could deliver excellent performance going forward, given the fact that shares have been so beaten down.

Full Disclosure: Long ARCP and O

Relevant Articles:

Five Things to Look For in a Real Estate Investment Trust
Realty Income - A dependable dividend achiever for current income
Are we in a REIT bubble?
How to Generate an 11% Yield on Cost in 6 Years
Undervalued Dividend Stocks I purchased in the past week

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