Saturday, August 22, 2009

Presidental Market Indicators

How good are Presidents at predicting the future of the market? Often times they are down right terrible, the spin in speeches is often more prevalent than the truth. With Obama's comments about sunshine being the best disinfectant I thought it would be interested to see how his comments match up to reality.
The following represents many of the quotes Obama has made related to the US economy. Green arrows represent a comment indicating a positive outlook, red deltas indicate a negative outlook on the economy.

DateDOWObama Quote 1Obama Quote 2Obama Quote 3Obama Quote 4
21/11/20088046.42I want to repeat, this will not be easy. There are no shortcuts or quick fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and the economy's likely to get worse before it gets better. Full recovery will not happen immediately.   
24/11/20088443.39Right now, our economy is trapped in a vicious cycle: The turmoil on Wall Street means a new round of belt-tightening for families and businesses on Main Street, and as folks produce less and consume less, that just deepens the problems in our financial markets.   
02/12/20088419.09I know these are difficult times. I don't think anybody here is viewing the situation through rose-colored glasses.   
12/12/20088629.68Things are going to get worse before they get better.   
05/01/20098952.89As I've said earlier, right now the most important task for us is to stabilize the patient. The economy is badly damaged. It is very sick. And so we have to take whatever is — steps are required to make sure that it is stabilized.   
08/01/20098742.46We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime, a crisis that has only deepened over the last few weeks.   
09/01/20098599.18There are American dreams that are being deferred and that are being denied because of the current economic climate. There is a devastating economic crisis that will become more and more difficult to contain with time.   
12/01/20098473.97If nothing is done, economists from across the spectrum tell us that this recession could linger for years and the unemployment rate could reach double digits — and they warn that our nation could lose the competitive edge that has served as a foundation for our strength and standing in the world   
13/01/20098448.56Clearly, the situation is dire. It is deteriorating, and it demands urgent and immediate action.   
23/01/20098077.56The news has not been good. Each day brings I think greater focus on the problems that we're having not only in terms of job loss, but also in terms of some of the instabilities in the financial system.   
28/01/20098375.45we left our meeting confident that we can still turn our economy around.   
09/02/20098270.87This is not your ordinary, run-of-the-mill recession. We are going through the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.   
25/02/20097270.89Our economy will once again thrive, and America will once again lead the world in this new century as it did in the last.   
13/03/20097223.98if we are keeping focused on all the fundamentally sound aspects of our economy, all the outstanding companies, workers, all the innovation and dynamism in this economy, then we're going to get through this. And I'm very confident about that.   
09/04/20098083.38the recession-hit U.S. economy was showing "glimmers of hope"   
14/04/20097920.18We're moving aggressively to unfreeze markets and jumpstart lending outside the banking system.These actions are starting to generate signs of economic progress.2009 will continue to be a difficult year for America's economy.There is no doubt that times are still tough. By no means are we out of the woods just yet. But from where we stand, for the very first time, we're beginning to see glimmers of hope.
23/06/20098322.91I think it's pretty clear now that unemployment will end up going over 10 percent ... because of the fact that even after employers and businesses start investing again and start hiring again, typically it takes a while for that employment number to catch up with economic recovery. And we're still not at actual recovery yet.So I anticipate that this is going to be ... a difficult year, a difficult period.  

Overall not bad Obama. With the exception of the positive comments on 28/01/2009 and the negative comment on 23/06/2009 he has been a fairly good bell weather of the next few months market conditions. We'll keep track of this and update in a few months.

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