Monday, April 27, 2009

Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Johnson & Johnson engages in the manufacture and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
JNJ is trading at a discount to 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. If I exclude the high and low valuations and average the remaining two, JNJ is trading at a 18.2% discount. JNJ earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section I consider five factors, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
  2. Dividend Growth Rate
  3. Years of Div. Growth
  4. 1-Yr. > 5-Yr Growth
  5. Payout 15% of avg.
JNJ earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. JNJ has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1944 and has increased its dividend payments for 47 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to > MMA
JNJ earned both of the available Stars in this section. The NPV MMA Diff. of the $9,091 is in excess of the $2,500 minimum I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as JNJ has. JNJ's current yield of 3.84% exceeds the 3.17% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Other: JNJ is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. JNJ's products are somewhat immune to the economic cycles. The company is diverse in both its products (drugs, medical devices, and consumer products) and customers. JNJ enjoys competitive advantages in financial resources, business scale and global footprint. In the face of challenging prospects in it drug business, JNJ recently diversified into aesthetics products and biosurgical items. Risks include generic erosion in several drugs, pipeline disappointments and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

Conclusion: JNJ earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned two Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a net total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks JNJ as a 4 Star-Buy.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $62.25 before JNJ's NPV MMA Differential fell to the $3,000 that I like to see. At that price the stock would yield 2.63%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the needed $3,000 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 2.4%. This dividend growth rate is significantly below the 7.5% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. JNJ has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.

JNJ is truly one of the elites dividend stocks and offers everything a dividend investor is looking for to support a steadily increasing dividend - excellent business model, strong balance sheet with low debt and supported by consistent cash flows. I plan to add to my position when JNJ is below by $62.25 buy price. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in JNJ (1.7% of my Income Portfolio). What are your thoughts on JNJ?

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