Recent Posts From DIV-Net Members

My Main Investment Objective: To Generate a Reliable, Growing Stream of Income from Stocks

Wow, these markets are in no way fun! I don't know about you, but I am sick of the volatility, the fear that we are seeing in the market, and the relentless pontification of the newspapers and media companies covering this like it is the end of the earth. These media companies love this kind of stuff because it sells paper. I however have decided to ignore as much of it as possible and stick to my main investment objectives. It is simple really, and it is one that I am confident that will carry me for many years to come.

Markets go up and markets go down. Remember, the tech bubble? That was supposed to be different. Remember Y2K? That was supposed to change it all. Remember 911? The markets were never supposed to be the same after that. My guess (and it is a guess) is that when we look back at this in 5 to 10 years time it will be more of the same. Just a period of intense volatility that while it was happening seemed like the end of the world was coming. Could I be wrong? Sure, but history has told us each and every time that the market recovers eventually and goes on to surprise us with new highs. Time will tell.

Where does that leave me today? As a dividend investor I have been doing some thinking and have come to the conclusion that even with these intense markets, I really have only two investment objectives. The first is to conserve my investment capital. That means that I need to continue investing to a sound and diversified asset allocation that portects me from the risks of an all equity portfolio. That means being not only in fixed income stocks, but being in emerging markets, REITS, and small-cap stocks.

The second investment objective is to continue on with my strategy of generating reliable and growing stream of income from stocks. This way, I do not need to worry about prices too much and instead can focus on watching my portfolio continue to throw off cash and eventually a growing stock price as well. History has proven that increasing dividends has the effect of raising stock prices over the long term. In the end, I believe that my stock prices will catch up once again.

Of course, I could be wrong. However, I am not going to look at the newspapers to tell me what to do...

This article was written by The Dividend Guy. You may email questions or comments to me at info@thedividendguyblog.com.


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Stock Analysis: Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW)

Linked here is a PDF copy of my detailed analysis of Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) (alt.1, alt.2). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a diversified manufacturer operates a portfolio of about 750 industrial and consumer businesses located throughout the world.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
ITW is trading at a discount to 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. If I exclude the high and low valuations and average the remaining two, ITW is trading at a 14.8% discount. ITW earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section I consider five factors, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
  2. Dividend Growth Rate
  3. Years of Div. Growth
  4. 1-Yr. > 5-Yr Growth
  5. Payout 15% of avg.
ITW earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. ITW has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1933 and has increased its dividend payments for 45 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to >MMA
ITW earned one Star in this section for 1.) above. The NPV MMA Diff. of the $5,172 is in excess of the $2,500 minimum I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as ITW has. If ITW grows its dividend at 11.8% per year, it will take 9 years to equal the cumulative earnings from a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.61%.

Other: ITW is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. ITW has a strong balance sheet with a relatively low debt and generates high levels of free cash flow relative to net income. Looking ahead, ITW should continue to grow EPS via acquisitions and share repurchases. Risks would include a downturn in industrial activity and/or capital spending, integration of acquisitions and continued escalation of raw material costs..

Conclusion: ITW earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a net total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks ITW as a 3 Star-Hold.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $47.29 before ITW's NPV MMA Diff. decreases to the $3,000 NPV MMA Diff. that I like to see. At that price ITW would yield 2.43%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate
the $3,000 NPV MMA Differential I'm looking for, the calculated rate is 10.4%. This dividend growth rate is slightly below the 11.8% used in this analysis.

All things considered, I would be very comfortable initiating a position in ITW below $47.29.


Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I had no position in ITW (0.0% of my Income Portfolio) .

What are your thoughts on ITW?


Recent Stock Analyses:
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Dividend Aristocrats Continue To Perform Well In Volatile Market

One thing is certain, Standard & Poor's Dividend Aristocrats are holding their own in this difficult market environment. Year to date through September 27, 2008, the Aristocrat's total return equals -4.9% versus the S&P 500 Index return of -17.4%. The below spreadsheet details specific information for each Aristocrat. The entire Aristocrat 9.27.2008 spreadsheet is available at this link.



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Weekend Reading Links - September 27, 2008

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Have an Investment Plan for the Long Term

In today's stock market and weakening national economy, it pays to have a solid plan in place to get through these difficult times as well as a plan to get to retirement. My plan includes investing in a diversified portfolio of dividend paying stocks. My justification for investing in dividend stocks is for two primary reasons. First, dividend stocks are usually less volatile than non-dividend stocks and should provide come cushion in a volatile stock market. The other reason is to provide an income that I can retire on combined with my other retirement accounts and possibly social security.

Some of the most difficult times a person face are losing a job and or becoming unable to work due to health issues. Having a plan in place can ease the burdens faced during difficult times. Having not enough cash in reserve and having too little saved for retirement can lead to difficult financial decisions. Let's face it many people today do not have a plan in place to deal with emergencies that will haven over the short term or long term. I found a very interesting article that gives some basics on how to be prepared for a financial crisis before it happens to you or your family. Here are some of the highlights of the story from US New & World Report by Emily Brandon.

Getting Ready for a Surprise Retirement
Work often stops unexpectedly. You'd better be prepared with a financial plan

Paulette Geller thought she had her retirement all figured out. Geller, 64, planned to work until 66 or 67 to boost her Social Security check. Then, after successful foot surgery last year, she was in the hospital being wheeled to her car to go home when she had a stroke.

The stroke caused Geller to lose some technical skills and vision, keeping her from continuing to work as program director for older adults at the Winter Park (Fla.) Health Foundation. "I honestly thought I wasn't going to ever stop working. I was going to cut back to half time or quarter time because I loved my job," Geller says. Suddenly, "I couldn't do my job anymore, but it wasn't on my timeline and I wasn't in control." Now Geller gets disability payments that amount to 60 percent of her former salary and pays for COBRA health insurance coverage.

The vast majority of baby boomers want or plan to work in some capacity as long as they can. Eighty-four percent of people between the ages of 51 and 70 expect to work after they formally retire, and nearly two thirds say they can't see themselves ever retiring completely, according to a survey by management consulting firm McKinsey Global Institute. The McKinsey analysis also indicated that 60 percent of boomers will need to work in order to maintain something like their current lifestyle.

But retirement is something that can happen while you're making other plans. "It's far more commonplace for retirement to come earlier than expected than for it to happen according to some plan," says Marc Freedman, founder and CEO of the think tank Civic Ventures and author of Encore: Finding Work That Matters in the Second Half of Life. "It's important for people to begin saving to anticipate a period of a year or two, or sometimes longer, where their income is going to drop and they need to retool for another phase of their working lives."

An Urban Institute analysis offers a sobering look at what can go awry with your retirement plans. It looked at people who were 51 to 61 years old in 1992. A decade later, over three quarters of them had lost their jobs, become widowed or divorced, developed new health problems, or were confronted with frail parents or in-laws. Any of those circumstances can take a bite out of retirement plans, if not force workers to scrap them altogether.

A third of the participants had a health condition that limited their work, and 19 percent went through a layoff or business closing, the study found. And laid-off employees who managed to get a new job were less likely to get health insurance and earned about 25 percent less per hour, says Richard Johnson, a coauthor of the study.

Retirement, especially when unplanned, is a major life adjustment. "All of a sudden I felt useless," Geller, who is also twice widowed, says of her unexpected retirement. "I wasn't ready. The part that was the hardest was figuring out who am I without my work, because I had been working for so long." People who retire when they choose to are much happier in retirement than those who retire unexpectedly, according to research by Keith Bender of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. "If you're forced to retire and you haven't hit your saving goal or you separate from your job before you can get Medicare," he says, "[unhappiness can] persist at least through 10 years, if not more."

Here are tips for regaining control of your retirement:

Organize your finances. "You've got to start thinking at any point I could be retired," Bender says. "Take a good snapshot of where you are financially and think, 'If I am forced to retire in the next year or two, what does that mean for me personally or financially?' " Building up an emergency fund can help. Also, consider disability payments, health insurance until Medicare eligibility kicks in at age 65, life insurance to support any dependents, and long-term-care insurance.

Research the job market. Many people forced or enticed into early retirement have to find a new job to "cheer up your 401(k)," as Susanne Johnson of Long Grove, Ill., put it. When she was 56 in 2002, Johnson decided to retire early from United Airlines. Her retirement package included inexpensive health insurance until she became eligible for Medicare, free or low-cost flights when space was available, and a reduced pension. She then got another job with a bank but was laid off in a merger when she balked at relocating. Johnson would like to work until 66, her full Social Security age, but for now she's networking and job hunting.

Educate yourself. Keeping your skills current or developing new ones by taking classes can help keep you employed at any age. That way, "even if you get ownsized, someone will want to hire you," Mitchell says.

About a third of people over 50 end up back in the workforce after having considered themselves retired, according to research by Sewin Chan of New York University. "We hypothesize that they are returning because, once retiring, it's not what they thought it would be and they take a dent to their asset portfolios," she says. But employers don't always want older workers, who are often more expensive than their younger counterparts and tend to have more health problems.

Make a new plan. Ideally, you will find a new job or activity that gives you the control you had over your finances while you were working. Fran Doll, a former small-business owner in Akron, Ohio, found herself suddenly retired at age 56, when a routine mammogram found a tumor. Within a year, Doll endured two rounds of chemotherapy, radiation treatment that burned her lung by mistake (a rare complication), a partial mastectomy, and a nearly monthlong hospital stay. She hit bottom when she was transferred to a nursing home.

But Doll, now 67, took back control of her retirement. "Most important is having a succession plan and being proactive if you are diagnosed with a serious illness," she says. She sold her employment service, Superior Staffing, to two of her six children, and the care of her family helped her recover and move back home.


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Are Drips Worth It?

he abbreviation DRIP stands for dividend reinvestment plans. Drips are a nice low cost way to purchase dividend stocks and build a stock portfolio. These programs allow investors to purchase shares in two ways either through reinvesting dividends or with optional cash payments that can be sent to the companies you want to invest in. One benefit of drips is that they allow dividend reinvestment in partial shares. Another benefit of other drips is that some allow reinvesting your dividends by purchasing shares at a discount to the market price. Two such companies that I am aware of that do this are ACAS and NNN. Below you can also check my analysis of ACAS and NNN.

One of the issues with drips is that in order to participate in the DRIP you must already have purchased one share of the company stock. Some companies have overcome that hurdle for shareholders by letting people make a direct purchase in their stock. Stocks like GE or XOM are good examples of direct purchase plans with reinvestment plans.

Another problem with drips however is that you do not have the execution speed like you do when you purchase shares through a broker. If you want to buy or sell shares at the current market price, you can’t do it. In addition to that, despite the fact most drip plans allow charge low or no fees for purchasing additional shares or reinvesting your dividends, most drips have high initial set-up fees. Another issue that I have with drips is availability. Not all companies offer drips, so you might have to use a stock broker after all. From a tax perspective drip Investors must track their cost of shares to be used to calculate capital gains tax when shares are sold. In addition to that very few dividend reinvestment plans allow you to hold stocks in an IRA DRIP, which allows for a tax free compounding of your dividends. Examples of non-taxable dividend reinvestment plans include XOM, which offers both traditional and ROTH IRA dividend reinvestment plans.

From a diversification perspective a drip investor has to enroll in as many plans as the number of individual companies he or she plans to invest in. This would a be very inefficient way to keep track of your investments. The main positive of drips is the fact that one can start with a small amount of money, typically enough to buy one share of stock. DRIPs also allow novice investors to dollar cost average small amounts of money each month without getting killed on the brokerage commissions. The automatic dividend reinvestment comes in handy as if allows you to simply set up your drip with a company and then its all automatically invested into additional shares, while you take full advantage of the power of compounding.

So what is a good alternative to dividend reinvestment plans?

Most brokers allow you to purchase stock in any company that is traded on the NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and the OTC markets by charging you a small commission for that. After that however most brokerages do not charge any additional fees if you decide to reinvest your dividends. Some brokers like Sharebuilder allow you to reinvest your dividend by purchasing fractional shares, which accelerates the power of compounding in your favor. In addition to that, I would prefer having my entire dividend portfolio concentrated in one or two places as opposed to having it spread out among thirty different reinvestment plans. Most brokers also keep much more detailed information of your transactions activity in one place, compared to drip plans, which definitely helps during tax time.

And last but not least it is much easier to open a retirement account at a stock broker for a small fee, without being limited to the small number of drips inside an IRA out there. DivGuy and Get Rich Slowly have both published some insightful articles on DRIPs. Check them out.

Relevant Articles:

- Dividend Aristocrats List for 2009
- Dividend Aristocrats
- Best Dividends Stocks for the Long Run
- Best High Yield Dividend Stocks for 2009
- Best CD Rates

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Leverage is Suddenly A Dirty Word

Leverage is suddenly a dirty word, after many years of its exhortation by investors and managements. Just think of all those managers who are wishing they had never spent money buying back stock at much higher prices! There are managements, however, who have always scorned debt and leverage and kept pristine balance sheets with tons of cash just in case. Here are a few for you to consider in your search for Alpha.

Barrett Business Services Inc. (BBSI) - I wrote about this stock in two earlier posts on The Div-Net (Original) and the (Follow Up)

BBSI is in the Staffing services business, and the company has no debt, and $46.7 million in cash, or $4.35 per share.

CKX Lands (CKX) – Another company that didn’t drink the Kool-Aid that Wall Street was pushing the last few years is CKX Lands, a company that owns thousands of acres of land in Louisiana. The company has no debt, and $6 million in cash, or just over $3 per share.

Sycamore Networks Inc. (SCMR) – The last stock is Sycamore Networks, a telecommunications equipment company. The company has no debt, and $821 million, or $2.89 in cash.

Disclosure – I am long CKX Lands.

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Microsoft Raises Dividend 18%

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has raised their quarterly dividend from $0.11/share to $0.13/share, an increase of 18%. The software giant, whose shares are down about 26% year to date has also announced that they are buying back up to $40 Billion in stock.

Here is a glance at Microsoft's recent dividend activity:

Fiscal 2004 -$3.24 (includes $3/special dividend)
2005 -$0.32
2006 - $0.35
2007 - $0.40
2008- $0.44
2009 - $0.52 Estimated

Excluding the special dividend paid in 2004, this represents a compounded annual growth rate of the dividend of 16.7%. It is also interesting to note that Microsoft's earnings per share have been on a steady annual growth path since 2002. MSFT now yields about 2%.

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The Market Goes Down but I Still Receive My Dividends

Let's face it - the markets are not very friendly these days and anything we as investors have done has not shown positive results. In fact, it seems like things have gone from bad to worse as the Lehman and AIG fiascos have all but stopped the markets from functioning entirely. Even way over here in Norway, the markets are tanking as a result of poor fiscal management by these large conglomerates. However, this pain has been tempered by the fact that I continue to receive my dividend checks into my brokerage accounts. In fact, in the past two months alone (August and September) I have received a number of dividend payments.

Here is a look at a couple of the dividend payments I have received over these past couple of months:

15-AUG-2008 Procter & Gamble $13.23
22-AUG-2008 Royal Bank: $102.34
22-AUG-2008 Citigroup: $15.67
02-SEPT-2008 Wal-Mart Stores: $4.29
03-SEPT-2008 Pfizer: $36.37
09-SEPT-2008 Johnson & Johnson: $2.79
10-SEPT-2008 McGraw-Hill Companies: $2.06
16-SEPT-2008 McDonald's: $2.61

I know it does not look like much. However, this money will get reinvested into more and more shares and over the long term (20+ years) these additional shares that I am able to purchase with reduced stock prices should help enhance my returns. That is the plan anyway, and if history is any guide then this crappy market will pass and we will see a more robust and up trending market. Only time will tell!

This article was written by The Dividend Guy. You may email questions or comments to me at info@thedividendguyblog.com.


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Stock Analysis: V.F. Corp. (VFC)

Linked here is a PDF copy of my detailed analysis of V.F. Corp. (VFC) (alt.1, alt.2). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: V.F. Corp is a global apparel company with leading shares in denim and daypacks. The company is transforming into a designer and marketer of lifestyle apparel brands.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
VFC is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. If I exclude the high and low valuations and average the remaining two, VFC is trading at a 40.9% premium. VFC had a Star deducted for trading at a premium in excess of 5%.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section I consider five factors, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
  2. Dividend Growth Rate
  3. Years of Div. Growth
  4. 1-Yr. > 5-Yr Growth
  5. Payout 15% of avg.
VFC earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. VFC has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1941 and has increased its dividend payments for 34 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to >MMA
VFC earned no Stars in this section, and had one Star deducted for a negative NPV MMA Diff. The negative NPV MMA Diff. means that on a NPV basis for every $1,000 invested in VFC you would earn $1,669 less than a MMA earning a 20-year average rate of 4.61%. If VFC grows its dividend at 4.0% per year, it will never equal the cumulative earnings from a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.61%.

Other: VFC is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. VFC's has a strong management team in place. Recent acquisitions and international expansion provide for good growth potential. VFC continues to look for acquisitions of brands that will fit its portfolio. The denim business provides steady growth and generates significant cash flow.

Conclusion: VFC lost one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and lost one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a net total of negative one Star. Since my scale bottoms out at zero, this quantitatively ranks VFC as a 0 Star-Avoid stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would have to drop to $28.11 before PBI's NPV MMA Diff. increases to the $3,000 NPV MMA Diff. that I like to see. At that price PBI would yield 4.98%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate
the $3,000 NPV MMA Differential I'm looking for, the calculated rate is 9.9%. This dividend growth rate is more than double the 4.0% used in this analysis. VFC may be headed in the right direction, but at this level it does not earn a spot in my income portfolio.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I had no position in VFC (0.0% of my Income Portfolio) .

What are your thoughts on VFC?


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Should You Stick With Stocks

This will be a somewhat shorter post as we have been without electricity since last Sunday. However, given the volatility seen in the market this week, many investors are wondering what to do with their stock investments. Warren Buffet's thoughts regarding the market can be summed up in one of his famous quotations:

"I will tell you how to become rich. … Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."-- Warren Buffett

Along these same lines, in a recent interview by Jeremy Siegel, he notes:

As some say, it's too late to sell. One thing that I think is also important is again, this is a bear market, but not a huge one. You know we had a 50% bear market from March of 2000 up to October of 2002. This is 20% to 25%. Some people think that it is getting worse and I don't. Listen, it's part of the 200-year history of the U.S. Stock Market. And, if you go back 200 years, has it been right to sell in the bear markets? The answer is no. You take the pain, you hold your position, and you will be rewarded in the future. (emphasis added)
The entire interview, Rough Going for Now, but Stocks Still a Good Bet, is a worthwhile read during this volatile market period.


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Weekend Reading Links - September 20, 2008

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

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Dividend Stock Review: Corning (GLW)

I have added Corning (GLW) to my watch list and will look at the stock as a possible buy over the next few months. Here is a review of GLW:

GLW makes high technology fiber optics for the global telecom industry and high performance glass components for the personal computer and television maker industries. Their primary business segments as of the first half of 2008 are display technologies which is 50% of sales and 56% net profit, telecommunications which is 27% of sales and 4% net profit, environmental technologies which is 12% of sales and 10% net profit, life sciences which is 5% of sales and 15% of net profits, and specialty materials and other which make up the remaining 6% of sales. In 2007, 54% of overall sales were in Asia.

The display technologies segment manufactures glass substrates for active matrix liquid crystal displays (LCDs), which are used primarily in notebook computers, flat panel desktop monitors, and LCD televisions. GLW recently announced their third-quarter profits would come in less than expected. Recent demand has been lower for their LCD display units used in flat-screen TVs and PC monitors, and that's going to cut earnings at its largest division, .

"We continue to see evidence of ongoing strength in the retail market for LCD TVs, a key growth area for the LCD glass industry," CEO Wendell Weeks said in a prepared statement. "However, the supply chain correction, as outlined in our second-quarter conference call, is taking longer than we expected. We believe that the set assembly portion of the supply chain built too much inventory in the first half of this year. As set assemblers have continued to hold back on orders, panel makers have lowered prices and reduced utilization rates to balance the supply chain. We think these utilization cutbacks will continue into September in Taiwan."

However, GLW believes that the market for Generation 5.5 to Generation 8.0 glass substrates (60% of fourth quarter 2007 production) will rise faster in 2008. As end-user customers such as Sharp, Samsung and Sony move to Generation 8 from Generation 5.5, Corning will be able to make twice as many panels for LCD TVs per substrate and have wider margin.

GLW has very solid financials, they had $3.5 billion in cash and $1.5 billion in debt as of the end of June 2008. In 2007, GLW instituted a dividend for the first time since 2001 and announced a $500 million share buyback program. The current yield of the stock is 1.17% at the current price of $17.09 per share.

GLW believes demand for LCD TVs will generate significant glass demand well into the next decade and their portfolio of businesses will help deliver solid growth. S&P currently has a 4 star buy recommendation on GLW.

Disclosure: The Div Guy does not own shares of GLW at the time of this post.

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“The Top 40 Dividend Stocks for 2008 – How and Why to Build a Cash Machine of Dividend Stocks”, Book Review

Recently I received an interesting book on dividend investing, titled “The top 40 Dividend Stocks for 2008 – how and why to build a cash machine of Dividend Stocks”, written by David P. Van Knapp. The author, who also maintains the site sensiblestocks.com, decided to skip the publishers altogether and has his book available to readers online in a PDF format. That made it easier for him to provide an up to date edition in order for his readers to stay competitive in the markets.

The book is very well written and is organized in 8 chapters, starting with an overview of dividend stocks in general, characteristics of the best dividend stocks, creating and managing a dividend portfolio and ending with the system that the author has created which has helped him identify the top 40 dividend stocks that he recommends. This book should be appealing not only to novice dividend investors but also to more seasoned stock pickers with its wealth of information on dividends. Almost everything you ever wanted to know about dividends could be found in it.

The author starts the book by giving an introduction of what dividends are and why investors should buy stocks which produce increasing streams of dividend income. He also discusses the pros and cons of dividends versus share buybacks, and proves that it pays to own the “boring” dividend stocks which provide the most efficient stream of income from a tax perspective right now. I especially enjoyed reading about his discussion on managing portfolios consisting of the best dividend stocks. I also liked his ideas on portfolio management where he set clear goals and objectives as well as strategies for achieving them. I also found the idea of avoiding to catch falling knives, and instead wait for the stock price to turn before accumulating shares particularly intriguing.

Another section focused on certain types of companies which are organized specifically to pay high dividends such as business development companies, real estate investment trusts as well as master limited partnerships.

Many investment services will sell you a cheap book which describes a system which is pre-sold throughout the book. Not this one – this author sells a buy one get one free type of deal as he not only shares his stock picking system but also provides specific picks as well as the reasoning behind selecting those picks. The last half of the book was specifically dedicated to analyzing the top 40 dividend stocks for 2008 in more detail, thirteen of which were non-US companies.

There were several items that the author might have to provide some clarity to readers in future editions of the book. A mention that unless the current tax code is extended beyond 2010, the tax rate on dividend income for the highest income brackets would be much more than 15%, would have been informative.

I also think that future editions of the book should mention something about holding dividend stocks in a tax-deferred account such as an IRA, ROTH IRA or a 401k. Most investors who are in the accumulations stage would be better off in the long run without having to pay taxes on their annual dividend income.

Despite the fact that I enjoyed his writings on the BDC, REITS and MLP’s, I believe that most investors overlook these vehicles because the distributions from the three types of firms are taxed somewhat differently compared to distributions from common stocks. I would have also enjoyed reading more about taxation on MLP’s from his own experience. Most other yield hungry investors would probably enjoy a small section on Canadian Income Trusts as well as tanker stocks such as NAT, FRO, DSX.

I personally disagree with him that dividend payout ratios are not important in individual stocks selection. In fact avoiding stocks with unreasonable payouts has prevented me from purchasing any stocks that were caught in the most recent financial turmoil, which had to cut their dividends in order to conserve cash.

Last but not least, despite the fact that Mr. Van Knapp shared the top 40 picks from his system, it seemed to me that his initial list of around 700 dividend paying stocks needed more clarification about the methodology in compiling it. Don’t get me wrong – the top 40 dividend paying stocks in his book are representative of what every dividend growth investors looks for. I wonder however if he compiled his initial list of stocks from other sources whether he would have arrived with different stock picks in the end.

Overall I enjoyed reading the book, and would recommend it to any serious dividend investor who wants to succeed in his or her endeavors. It is easy to read, well organized and provides a wealth of information not only for the novice investor but also for the seasoned pro!

Relevant Articles:

- Dividend Aristocrats List for 2009
- Dividend Aristocrats
- Best Dividends Stocks for the Long Run
- Best High Yield Dividend Stocks for 2009
- Best CD Rates

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You Can Be A Stock Market Genius!

You can be a stock market genius! No this isn't a review of one of those Dummy series books on getting rich. The book is in fact written by Joel Greenblatt, the author of everybody's favourite, The Little Book That Beats The Market. With the markets in turmoil, I'm sure there are so many good opportunities out there and many investors are probably busy going through all the financial statements of potential buy candidates for their portfolio. But what about special situations?

Buying great companies selling for less than their intrinsic value is a great idea and one which value investing is based upon. However, do remember there are many different ways of profiting in the market via the low risk, high return method that is also a cornerstone of value investing. This is where Greenblatt's book comes in.

Note: The book is more suited for DIY folks who have a good handle on investing and able to navigate through financial statements and reports.

Investing in Unknown Areas

You've heard it many times. "You have to know something others don't in order to make a profit". This book opens your eyes to the other tremendous opportunities of the market.

How many people are worried about the financial markets, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the intention to spin off divisions or sell divisions to raise capital by AIG and other major financial companies? By all means, it's perfectly fine to be scared but did you know that you can profit from all this with diligence and low risk.

Just 1 month ago, reading todays headlines would have shaken me up but after reading the book, I am now eager and excited to see how things shape up so that I can profit from situations when people are running scared. The many detailed past examples and analyses by Greenblatt helps to provide a clearer understanding and picture of how to go about doing it yourself.

By understanding different scenarios and being able to keep up to date with a situation, an individual can not only gain an edge over the troubled big boys but also to make impressive gains from a low risk methodology.

The book takes us through each different situation, or what we call special situation, and consists of the following:
  • Spin-offs
  • Mergers/Risk Arbitrage (book advises against risk arbitrage)
  • Merger Securities
  • Bankruptcies (not investing IN bankrupt companies but rather in what results from it)
  • Restructurings
  • Rights Offerings
  • Recapitalizations

Investing Independent of the Market

I have found a pull towards special situation investing for a few reasons
  1. Investing a portion of your portfolio in special situations will definitely stop or slow the slide from a falling market.
  2. Special situations occur independent of the market. Opportunities arise in down markets (spin offs, bankruptcies, restructurings) as well as good markets (mergers, recaps).
  3. Not all that different from ordinary stock analysis but in some cases, such as mergers, you only need to focus on the process of the merger rather than deal with the growth, discount rates and other hrad variables.
  4. Money isn't always tied up for long periods at a time.

Risks

I've emphasized many times that if you don't understand how to calculate and handle risk (the probability of losing everything), it would be much safer to go long on good companies. The book also mentions several times that if the investor is prepared to do the additional work, pick their own spots and battles, rather than invest mechanically or blindly based on the recommendations of others, the individual should do very well.

General Comments

Like all books, it provides a skeleton with some bits and pieces included to help you on the way, but it's up to the individual to fill up that skeleton and thrive in the satisfaction of seeing it come alive.

I now view headlines and "bad" news differently. I am beginning to see pieces of information between the headlines.

Book is well formatted and easy to read with some quirky humour thrown in. I started reading and was up to page 50 before I knew it.

The content of the book is something you can't and will not learn in business or finance school.

"There are three types of people in the world--those who can count, and those who can't.This article was written by Old School Value. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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Bank Capital Ratios

Capital is the most important item that a financial institution can have, in the midst of what some pundits have called the worst financial environment since the Great Depression. So how does the government measure that capital relative to the risk that a Bank assumes when it conducts its business of making loans? Here are a few measures:

Tier 1 leverage ratio – This is calculated as the amount of Tier 1 Capital as a percent of average total assets.

Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio – This is calculated as the amount of Tier One Capital as a percent of total risk weighted assets.

Total risk-based capital ratio – This is calculated as the amount of Tier 1,2 and 3 Capital as a percent of total risk weighted assets.

You can find out these ratios by going to the FDIC website here:

http://www4.fdic.gov/idasp/main.asp

Enter the name of your bank. Sometimes it’s not that easy to find the bank you want because the holding company bank will have a slightly different name than the one you are investing in. Verify it by looking at the address listed.

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Markets Efficient?

One of the criticisms we constantly hear of Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis is that it's too old and it no longer applies. Information is too readily available nowadays, critics say, and therefore inefficiencies in the market no longer exist. We disagree. As examples, we've discussed here some very recent inefficiencies that offered great profits for investors. We've also discussed the stories of some very successful current value investors, and how they've been successful.

Graham and Dodd also discussed inefficiencies not just at the individual stock level, but at the market level in aggregate. At times, stocks were extremely fashionable, causing companies to continually issue shares to cash in on this phenomenon. At other times, depending on the economic climate, deserving companies were not able to raise a dime. We see a table below where Graham and Dodd demonstrated back in the 20s and 30s that these gyrations in stock issues from year to year exist.


Below, we look at a modern-day cross-section of this data. Shown is a chart listing IPO issues and their aggregate dollar amounts since 1970. In an efficient market, we would expect these to be smooth from year to year, after all, why should people be willing to pay more one year but not the next? However, we clearly see that during bear markets (e.g. 1972-1974, early 1990s, early 2000s etc.), companies don't issue, as they don't feel they're getting enough in return for the stake they're selling in their companies. On the other hand, during bull markets we see a great number of companies trying to sell their stock for perhaps more than it is worth, as a speculator and his money are soon parted. This article was written by Saj Karsan. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.


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The Battle For Longs

U.S. drugstore chain CVS Caremark Corp. (CVS) agreed to buy its smaller rival Longs Drug Stores Corp (LDG). That was before Walgreen Co. (WAG) made an offer for Longs recently for $75/share, trumping the accepted CVS offer of $71.50/share. Walgreen also agreed to pay the $115 million termination fee that Longs would incur by accepting the new Walgreen offer. 'Going Long' seems to be on both these company's minds.


Longs operates 521 pharmacies in the western U.S. The move by Walgreen is seen as out of character as they have traditionally chosen to grow organically. The market seems to be anticipating further offers for Longs as the stock is currently trading above the Walgreen bid price of $75. Walgreen is looking to grow by snapping up Longs who runs valuable locations in the south west U.S. and especially the Hawaii market, which WAG had been looking to grow. This could turn out to be an interesting battle in the drug store industry as these two companies fight for market share and growth opportunities. Increasing market share helps keep competitive pressures at bay as incumbent players battle for customers and less traditional players like Wal-Mart (WMT) enter the pharmacy industry.


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Speculating on a Falling Knife

There has been a lot of turmoil these past few months with the collapse of Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae in particular used to be a well respected dividend stock that had a long history of dividend increases and I am sure makes up a large part of many portfolios in the United States and throughout the world. Now with these stocks, their portfolios are reduced substantially and I am willing to bet that many people may be thinking about perhaps buying more. There may also be many people who are considering initiating a position in either of the two companies. This investing phenomenom of buying a stock that has tanked in value is often refered to as catching a falling knife.

Catching a falling knife can go one of two ways. First, the stock can recover and as an investor you will look like a hero as your holdings increases in value substantially. Second, your stock can continue its downward slide and you lose more and more money. The trouble is that the risks of the first outcome occurring is not significantly great. I tend to look at it in terms of simple physics - things in motion tend to continue in motion and stocks are no different. For a stock to drop as drastically as Fannie and Freddy have, then there must be some serious problems with the company. Acting in times like this can only lead to more trouble.

If you want to invest in these types of stocks, my suggestion is to start watching these companies like a hawk to learn as much as possible about them. And then, buy only when there has been a significant turnaround in the stock price. Emotional impatience is the largest enemy to an investor . There is the urge to buy the stock on the way down to ensure that you catch the upturn when (if) it happens. Be patient and wait for a turnaround - this is not market timing, it is smart investing.


This article was written by The Dividend Guy. You may email questions or comments to me at info@thedividendguyblog.com.


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15 Simple Solutions

A frequent topic I'm asked or receive emails about from individuals looking for advice on investing focuses on what simple strategies one can follow in order to become a better investor.

Investing shouldn't be a complicated process despite the lack of initiative found in the financial industry to properly inform the public and educate clients of the simplicity in creating individual wealth over time. Each investor begins their journey anxious to start a path to wealth immediately, but with seemingly unlimited amounts of information in so many locations it's easy to become overwhelmed, confused and frustrated on where to begin.

My view of investor education is identical to my approach of patient education as a registered nurse. When I speak with a patient about their health I provide the best tools necessary for educating and empowering them to make positive changes in their life. When I discuss blood pressure with a patient I don't start by providing only a medical definition, assume that they know how to interpret the numbers or expect them to understand all the impacts to their health right away. I take the time to explain what everything means in simple terms, how changes to your lifestyle can positively impact your body, the repercussions of not doing so and where they can receive additional information or resources. The information may be a simple review to a patient who knows a lot about blood pressure already or something completely new that provides insight into a topic that they may have been unaware of before.

My belief is that when someone is properly informed (medically or financially) they are able to make better decisions that affect the lives of themselves and those around them. Just as with educating patients, investors can benefit from simple information that helps them to develop clear objectives and avoid excessive complications. Investing isn't difficult, but investing with some common sense can go a long way to improving returns over the long-term.

Here are fifteen fundamentals for an investor to remember and reviewed on a regular basis:

1. Focus on What You Do Best

In an earlier series I shared with readers one of my Value Rules that focuses on companies that do one thing as best as they can. As a new investor you will slowly find a comfort zone that you lean towards in a style of investing that builds confidence into your investing activities over time. There's always room for improvement where you lack confidence or ability, but concentrating on a core focus has many benefits that allow an investor to set clear objectives and attain measurable results. Find a comfort zone and go with it. Instead of trying to do many things at once that you don't do well or understand, attempt to concentrate on one or two that you can perform to the best of your ability and expand from there.

2. Know Your Limitations

Not only should an investor focus on what they do best, but they should also be aware of their individual limitations. It's important to recognize what your limitations are so that you can minimize mistakes that lead to losses or diminished returns. If you don't have the time, knowledge or desire to invest on your own then likely you should seek a certified financial professional. You can always work on areas you feel need improvement over time, but investing should always focus on your main core competencies to achieve the best results possible.

3. Consider the Benefit of Cashflow

There are three main methods of growing your investments: capital gains, income (interest or dividends) and savings. Investors often focus solely on investing what they save and the gains from those investments, but a passive method of increasing the value of your portfolio in all market environments is to consider the benefit of cashflow. The portion might be small or appear insignificant at first, but over time both dividends and income (when considering taxation) can lead to meaningful increases in your annual returns that pay dividends over the long-term.

4. Incorporate a Balance of Active & Passive

The couch potato portfolio draws on effective simplicity and the fact that the majority of professional managers (mutual funds) fail to outperform their respective index on a short or long-term basis. While you may enjoy picking individual equities or mutual funds for various reasons, investing a portion of your portfolio in passive investments (ETF's & index funds) will help you to benefit from the long-term performance of the markets in a very cost effective manner.

5. Look to Minimize Cost

Cost is a major factor that many investors fail to recognize in the first few years of investing. Cost is important because it creates drag on an investors' ability to generate returns through a number of methods. These can include paying for advice, professional management or transactional costs of purchasing your investments. If you invest in a mutual fund that charges a 2.5% MER (management expense ratio) for 10 years over that time frame the potential return that you would have lost would be an astounding 25%. Where did this go? Right into the pockets of the professional managers who you paid to invest money on your behalf. If a fund out performed its index and peers by 50% over that time frame then 25% may be worthwhile, but the majority of the time managers fail to outperform. Whenever possible an investor should consider the impact of expenses (MER), commissions (DSC fees & trading costs) and taxation.

6. Keep it Simple

This follows the "Keep it Simple" analogy. Too often an individual will complicate the investing process by trying to get fancy with a strategy or group of investments to the detriment of their returns. There are a number of times when the simplest strategy is the easiest to implement and rewards an investor with the best returns. An individual investor can't match the financial resources that professional experts have access to, but often that abundance of information simply muddies the water so that a clear decision is difficult to make. When you keep your investing objectives, process and activities simple the returns often will take care of themselves.

7. Let Money & Debt Work for You

Here is an opportunity for an investor to maximize efficiencies by looking at how money and debt work for them. There's always the hard way, the easy way and then the smart way when investing. Each individual's situation will differ, but what you want to do is look for methods to increase the efficiency of how you put your hard earned money to work to minimize debt, taxation and to increase your ability to save. Debt shouldn't be an insurmountable obstacle in your financial plan and knowing how to maximize tax benefits, pay yourself first and pay off debt in a manageable and timely manner can go a long way to improving your long-term financial situation.

8. Learn to Think Outside of the Box

Creative thinking is the hallmark of my approach and benefits the investor who has the ability to look outside the box by asking questions, looking to different options and investigating innovative methods. Developing an ability to see the big picture comes over time, but making a habit to look for alternative/contrarian views or opinions will help to expand your perspective on a number of topics and create your own individual confidence.

9. Understand Risk

Risk has the potential to decimate returns and the credit crisis of 2007-2008 is a great recent example. Investing is a balance between risk and reward and an individual investor needs to identify their risk tolerance before ever investing. Many investors find that early it's easy to state that they're willing to lose a certain amount of their capital only to later determine that their risk tolerance was much, much lower. Very few investments are risk-free, so an investor should examine all internal and external factors of an investment before placing money into the markets.

10. Know What You Are Investing In

If risk is an important element of investing that an individual should identify and understand, then knowing what you're investing in becomes an absolute necessity. Whether you're investing in mutual funds, ETF's, individual equities or another investment you should always have a good grasp of what you're investing in and understand it to the best of your ability. Even GIC's, bonds and money market funds should be investigated by yourself or through a financial advisor in order for an investor to develop a comfort level and knowledge of where their money is going. If you don't understand the security, industry or type of business then you have no business investing there no matter the implied return.

11. Diversify

Every investor has probably heard the line "don't put all your eggs in one basket", yet many forget the importance of diversifying appropriately across different assets, countries, currencies or sectors in attempt to best minimize risk. An investor doesn't want to over diversify their investments, but the focus here is to gain adequate exposure to a number of areas so that your returns will be balanced no matter what occurs in the markets. Sticking to only one or two sectors, exclusively investing in one asset group or placing all your money into one investment can lead to substantial risks that have the potential to impact your returns negatively.

12. Develop a Discipline

Discipline is a difficult task for any investor to embrace, but structure allows an individual to focus on objectives, develop and then implement a specific plan. Discipline allows an investor to avoid the temptation to invest into areas outside their comfort zone or expertise and should protect you from risk to some degree. Have the convictions to stick to your plan and you'll be rewarded over time if the fundamentals of that decisions remain sound.

13. Patience & Time

One of the biggest difficulties for any investor in the beginning is to develop patience in all aspects of their investing activities. Whether investigating a stock, determining a buy/sell price or sticking to a strategy; we all want to see results sooner than later and can become antsy when things take longer than we anticipate. Remember back to the Rule of 72: compound interest is your best friend as an investor and over the long-term your returns will take care of themselves. Focusing on the short-term and attempting to micromanage your portfolios will likely add more harm to your returns than benefit. Patience isn't something everyone comes by naturally, but it's important to understand the impact that adjusting your strategy continuously can have on your potential for sustained long-term returns.

14. Focus on Quality Rather than Quantity

Whether you plan to invest in 10 stocks or 100 stocks focusing on quality has many benefits. While an ETF or index fund may give you exposure to an entire sector, market or index an investor should realize that within those investments are good and bad stocks in some unknown proportion. While indexing is a great long-term strategy that is cost-effective and simple, focusing on the best quality investments is likely your best choice for risk-adjusted returns.

15. Self Evaluate

Whether you choose to do this annually, semi-annually or quarterly, evaluating your individual performance can have many benefits for adjusting your future habits, activities and preventing mistakes when investing. Each investor should take the time to identify their individual strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in an attempt to better understand how their investing activities have progressed and where they can improve in the future. Far too often investors ask the questions of why an investment or strategy has continued to under-perform only to continue making the same mistakes that negatively impact their returns. An investor doesn't necessarily need to overhaul their approach each and every time, but gaining a better sense of where you can make improvements is a habit that many investors should consider as an important element of their activities.


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Stock Analysis: Colgate Palmolive (CL)

Linked here is a PDF copy of my detailed analysis of Colgate Palmolive (CL) (alt.1, alt.2). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a consumer products company, whose products are marketed throughout the world. Colgate’s Oral Care products include toothpaste, toothbrushes, oral rinses, dental floss and pharmaceutical products.

Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

  1. Avg. High Yield Price
  2. 20-Year DCF Price
  3. Avg. P/E Price
  4. Graham Number
CL is trading at a premium to all four valuations above. Since CL's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. If I exclude the high and low valuations and average the remaining two, CL is trading at a 51.1% premium. CL had a Star deducted for trading at a premium in excess of 5%.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section I consider five factors, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%
  2. Dividend Growth Rate
  3. Years of Div. Growth
  4. 1-Yr. > 5-Yr Growth
  5. Payout 15% of avg.
CL earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. CL has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1895 and has increased its dividend payments for 45 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
  1. NPV MMA Diff.
  2. Years to >MMA
CL earned no Stars in this section. The NPV MMA Diff. of the $176 is below the $2,500 minimum I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CL has. If CL grows its dividend at 11.4% per year, it will take 14 years to equal the cumulative earnings from a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.61%. The 14 years is more than the 10 years maximum I like to see. .

Other: CL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. Demand for household and personal care products is generally static, and not affected by changes in the economy or geopolitical factors. The industry is mature and quite competitive. CL's restructuring are likely to continue to benefit EPS growth. The CEO transition from Reuben Mark (CEO since 1984) to Ian Cook (former COO, became CEO on July 1, 2007) appears to have gone smoothly.

Conclusion: CL lost one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a net total of zero Star. This quantitatively ranks CL as a 0 Star-Avoid stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would have to drop to $62.10 before CL's NPV MMA Diff. decreases to the $3,000 NPV MMA Diff. that I like to see. At that price CL would yield 2.51%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate
the $3,000 NPV MMA Differential I'm looking for, the calculated rate is 13.9%. CL has not grown its dividend 13.9% or above since 2005 when its year-over-year dividend growth rate was 15.6%. CL will not be joining my income portfolio anytime soon.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I had no position in CL (0.0% of my Income Portfolio) .

What are your thoughts on CL?


Recent Stock Analyses:
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DIV-Net Welcomes Its Newest Members

The DIV-Net is pleased to formerly announce the addition of two new Associate Members. The quality content provided on each of these sites was a natural fit for DIV-NET. Please welcome our newest members, and support them by dropping by their sites and subscribing to their feeds. Here is some information on each of them:

Bullish Dividends - [July/2008] - Subscribe to RSS feed
Dividends are the foundation of my retirement plan. My long-term goal is to retire early and live off of the passive income generated by dividend-based investments. "Let your money work for you" by buying companies with a long history of paying and increasing dividends. (more...)

Barel Karsan - [September/2008] - Subscribe to RSS feed
Our articles are all about finding and discussing current value investments, questioning conventional wisdom, applying logic to investment decisions (rather than falling prey to psychological biases), and always applying a margin of safety! (more...)

If you run an investing site that is focused on dividend investing, value investing or take a long-term buy and hold approach, you might be eligible to join DIV-Net. Click here for more information.


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Stock And Economic Data Sites Across The Web

Committing dollars to a particular stock is often the last decision made by an investor. The first steps often include a review of company financial data and a review of economic data. There are a number of resources across the internet available to investors to assist in this evaluation. Following are some sites that may be of interest to investors as the work through the review process.

Economic Data

Stock Data
International Stock Data
Portfolio Tracking
  • Portfolio management tools and tax lot accounting at GainsKeeper.
I was introduced to some of the above sites in the recent issue of AAII Journal from the American Association of Individual Investors. The September issue of the magazine contains a much more comprehensive listing of investment websites for those that have an interest.

This article was written by Disciplined Approach to Investing.
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Weekend Reading Links - September 13, 2008

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network (DIV-Net) over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.

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One of the toughest decisions: When to Sell

It seams like I can always find a stock to buy but deciding when to sell a stock can be a very difficult decision for many investors. When purchasing a stock I now try to have a plan in place on when I will sell the stock. Kiplingers has a very good article I like to look back on for guidance. The post is called "When to Sell a Stock" and it gives four signs when it may be time to sell a stock. There are no foolproof plans for investing but having a plan for selling and buying can help make the investment process easier.

When to Sell a Stock
To make the decision easier, look for these four signs.
By Cameron Huddleston

The right time to unload shares is one of the toughest calls investors have to make. Even professional traders and money managers admit it can be difficult. "It's a lot easier to buy a stock than to sell a stock," says David Giroux, manager of T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation fund.

That's because if you sell when a stock is down, you feel like you're giving up, Giroux says. And it rarely feels right to sell when a stock's price is soaring -- even though that can be the best time to sell.

Now, there's nothing wrong with holding a stock 20 or more years -- if it's the stock of an exceptionally well run company, says Giroux, who tends to hold stocks for three to five years in his $10.5 billion fund. But even if you're a buy-and-hold investor, you need to learn to say "sell" sometimes.

The market's recent volatility might be making you want to say, "Sell it all. I'll sit this out until things calm down." But you shouldn't let fear guide your investment decisions. Instead, look for these four signs to help you decide if the time is right.

1. A change in the company's fundamentals. Usually the best clue for when to sell a stock comes from the issuing company, itself. If a company's earnings stop growing, if its top management quits or is forced out, if it stops creating new products, or its products aren't receiving regulatory approval, the company's shares could be headed for a fall. Kiplinger's Portfolio Tracker can help you keep tabs on a company's performance.

One sure sign of trouble is if a company is having cash-flow problems, Giroux says. A cash flow statement gets to the guts of a business -- the cash it receives and the cash it pays out. It's especially handy when researching companies that don't have profits. You can find the information in the company's annual reports, accessible on its Web site, or sites such as Yahoo! Finance and Zacks.

Giroux says look for changes in free cash flow: 1. Is operating cash flow growing slower than net income? 2. Is inventory rising faster than sales? 3. Are receivables rising faster than sales? These are early warning signs that it might be time to sell
the company's stock.

2. The stock's too hot. If a company's stock price is soaring but its fundamentals, such as earnings growth, aren't following suit, it's time to sell, says Jerry Jordan, Jr., manager of Jordan Opportunity fund. A stock with an especially high price-earnings ratio may be the victim of investors' unrealistic expectations. To calculate this familiar measure of a stock's value, divide the current share price by the company's earnings per share.

You can compare a stock's P/E with that of the overall market, the average P/E of its industry, or against the company's past P/Es. If the company's ratio is unusually high, it could have a hard time sustaining that price.

Jordan recommends picking a target P/E when you first invest in a stock. If the price jumps but the earnings keep up, you won't have to sell. This method can help give you the discipline to dump the stock before it becomes overpriced.

3. The stock's not keeping up. The market's rallying, but your stock isn't. This can be a sign to sell, Jordan says, especially for popular or trendy stocks that tend to move in sync with the market. For example, if stock was $100, drops to $80 but doesn't bounce back or even falls below that level, sell.

4. The stock is taking over your portfolio. If you went into your stock purchases aiming for diversification, revisit your portfolio once a quarter to see if your holdings are still in balance. If you have one or two big winners and their futures still look bright, you may want to consider taking some profits off the table -- and adding to your other holdings -- just so you won't be overexposed if the unexpected happens.

Don't put much stock in technical signals

Sometimes investors use technical analysis to gauge when to sell shares. But Giroux says there is no proof these signals are accurate over time.

Among the more commonly used technical signals are the 200-day moving average and the support line. With both, you're supposed to sell when a stock's price falls below a certain point -- regardless of what's going on with the company's fundamentals.

You won't get them all right

Even when the warning signs are there, sometimes it still can be hard to let go of a stock. For example, Jordan says he's kicking himself for holding on as long as his did to shares of Merrill Lynch, whose chief executive was forced out on October 30 after the company announced a $7.9 billion write-down of debt and subprime mortgage assets. In November, Jordan still had 4.5% of his fund's assets in Merrill Lynch, according to Morningstar.

"I realized it wasn't working, but I had no idea they were doing as bad a job managing their money as they were," he says.

Ideally, you sell a stock when it's up so you can make a profit. But sometimes you have to cut your losses and sell when a stock is down.

Remember, you get a break on capital gains taxes if you've held the stock at least a year (a 15% tax rate for most people). If you're sitting on a loser, there's even a consolation prize: Losses offset capital gains -- from other sales, for example, or mutual-fund distributions -- and, if you have more losses than gains, up to $3,000 of net loss can be deducted against other kinds of income.


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