Recent Posts From DIV-Net Members

Hart Stores: The Value Trap

As value investors, we gravitate towards the most shunned investments around. The most hated stocks often make for the best investments. But no matter how disliked a company may be, if it possesses certain attributes, it may still not make sense as a value investment. Hart Stores (HIS) provides such an example.


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Target's Growing Dividend Yield

I am sure that you have heard of the retailer Target before. The company is the popular retail chain with the big red bullseye. Target is one of the largest retailers in the United States. The company sells just about anything that you need including clothing, household products, power tools, school supplies, and groceries. The big box retailer competes with Walmart and Costco in the discount retail space.  

Target has been one of the few retailers that has been able to carve out a niche for itself competing against Walmart. Target offers a lot more growth potential than Walmart. The company has been able to grow at an 8% rate during the current year which is impressive considering the economic slowdown that has taken place. Walmart has executed its domestic growth plan in a solid manner and now is looking for international growth.

Target recently announced plans to expand into Canada and open up to 150 stores by 2013. Expansion is definitely possible considering that the company generates $5.8 billion dollars in operating cash flow. The firm has been able to generate nearly $70 billion dollars in annual sales and $21.6 billion dollars in gross profit.

Target is not particularly cheap currently trading at 12 times earnings. The stock trades at 2.3 times its book value and 1.1 times earnings growth. It trades at just 0.5 times sales. The firm has just under $900 million in cash and $17.5 billion dollars in debt. Target is becoming more appealing to income investors because of its growing dividend and large amounts of free cash flow.

Target just boosted its dividend yield 20% recently. A company not known for dividend payments is becoming a dividend favorite. The company has a dividend yield of 2.4% which is higher than the historical yield of 2.4%. The current dividend payout of $1.20 a share represents just 24% of earnings. This is an incredibly low dividend payout which leaves substantial room for annual dividend growth.


This article was written by [Buy Like Buffett]. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed at [RSS].


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Stock Analysis: Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Lowe's Companies, Inc. sells retail building materials and supplies, lumber, hardware and appliances through more than 1,700 stores in the U.S. and Canada.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

LOW is trading at a discount to 1.), 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 29.4% discount to its calculated fair value of $27.37. LOW earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

LOW earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. LOW earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured.

Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2002-2005, 2003-2006, 2004-2007, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1961 and has increased its dividend payments for 49 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

LOW earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $13,983. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as LOW has. If LOW grows its dividend at 17.9% per year, it will take 3 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.1%. LOW earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 3 years is less than the 5 year target.

Memberships and Peers: LOW is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) with a 3.0% yield, KingFisher plc (KGFHY.PK) with a 2.7% yield and Rona Inc. (RON.TO) with a 1.4% yield.

Conclusion: LOW earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks LOW as a 4 Star-Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $58.84 before LOW's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 49 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 0.9%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 7.9%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 17.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a significant margin of safety. LOW has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

As the second-largest home-improvement retailer in the world, LOW enjoys tremendous purchasing power enabling it to provide low prices to its customers. The company is a well-managed with a highly automated distribution network.

Its strong balance sheet, including a relatively low debt level, and impressive free cash flows should provide ample cushion to see LOW through the downturn. LOW is trading below my $27.37 fair value price and with the recent slump in the market its yield has reached a level to allow serious consideration for a near-term purchase.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in LOW (0.0% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

Related Articles:
- Vectren Corporation (VVC) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Target Corporation (TGT) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Weekend Reading Links - August 28, 2011

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.


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Universal Corporation Stock Analysis

Universal Corporation (UVV), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a leaf tobacco merchant and processor worldwide. It engages in selecting, procuring, buying, processing, packing, storing, supplying, shipping, and financing leaf tobacco for sale to, or for the account of, manufacturers of consumer tobacco products. Universal is a dividend champion has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1927 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 40 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in November 2010, when the Board of Directors approved a 2.10% increase to 48 cents/share. The largest competitors of Universal include Alliance One International (AOI), British American Tobacco (BTI) and Phillip Morris International (PM).


Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 3.90% to its shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver an increase in EPS of 3.50% per year since 2002. Analysts expect Universal to earn $4.25 per share in 2012 and $4.50 per share in 2012. In comparison Universal earned $5.42 /share in 2011. The company has managed to consistently repurchase 0.70% of its common stock outstanding over the past decade through share buybacks.


The company has managed to generate high returns on equity with the exception of a brief dip in 2006 on lower profitability. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 4.20% per year over the past decade, which is slightly higher than the growth in EPS.

A 4% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every 18 years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1974, we see that Universal has actually managed to double its dividend every nine years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio has mostly remained unchanged, with the exception of a brief spike in 2006 – 2007 on lower short-term weakness in profitability. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Universal is trading at 6.80 times earnings, yields 5.10% and has a sustainable dividend payout. This value stock currently fits my entry criteria. While I find the dividend to be well covered, future dividend growth will be constrained by the lack of visibility concerning the company’s future earnings prospects.

Full Disclosure: Long UVV

Relevant Articles:


This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Recent Buy

How does the saying go? You can't keep a good man down? Well...you can't keep a value investor out of a depressed market! My available capital has been extremely limited lately, as I deployed all of my dry powder during my recent buy streak, adding to my position with CVX and initiating a position with COP.

I decided to pull some money out of my emergency fund to make a purchase. I have typically had a high amount, for my personal circumstances, set aside as an emergency fund for myself. I'm single, and I don't have any major liabilities. I don't own a home or a car. I am not married and I don't have children. Due to this, I think that carrying a smaller balance in my emergency fun in the short-term will be fine as I dry it up a little to make a purchase. I didn't alleviate the entire fund, just a portion of it. I'll likely build it back up over the next couple months as my expenses continue to decrease and my income (hopefully) increases in turn.

With my new-found capital I decided to add to my holdings with ConocoPhillips. I've been a little high on energy lately, and my spree of buying up equities in Big Oil is coming to an end. Energy now comprises of just under 25% of my entire portfolio, which in my eyes is too large an allocation for one sector. I don't have a firm number, but I think keeping individual sectors to no more than 20% of an entire portfolio is probably prudent. Allocation levels can be managed and balanced actively, so I'm not concerned about this. As I buy equities in other sectors my energy allocation on a percentage basis will decrease.

I purchased 18 shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) on 8/22/11 at $63.65 a share. I was happy with this purchase. My entry point on a per-share basis was much lower than my initial purchase which lowers my overall cost basis on this position. This purchase doubles my position with COP.

The yield on my purchase is at 4.14%, which is absolutely solid. It will provide me with a yearly dividend total of $47.52 based on the current payout. I'm ecstatic with this entry yield. I am very bullish on energy, if you couldn't tell by my last three purchases. This sector is currently overweight in my portfolio, so my next few purchases will be in other sectors...likely to be consumer staple and finance sectors.

S&P currently has COP at a 4-star BUY with a 12-month target price of $93.00. Morningstar currently rates COP as a 5-star value. I'm in good company!

What are you buying?

Thanks for reading.

This article was written by Dividend Mantra. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed.


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Home Builder Opportunity?

Many US home builders continue to lose money, and sentiment in this sector is decidedly bearish. But it is often among unloved, cyclical companies that value can be found. To that end, a number of home builders trade at discounts to their book values.


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Buy Or Sell HP?

One of the stocks that is popping up on a lot of investor’s screens as a value stock is Hewlett Packard (HP). The technology stock has been one of the biggest losers in the sector over the past week. Hewlett Packard’s stock has been beaten down and is currently trading in the low 20’s. So, you should buy HP right?

Let’s take a look at the fundamentals of the stock. HP looks tremendously cheap. The stock trades at just six times the current year’s earnings. The stock is trading at just 1.2 times book value and 0.7 times sales. The stock currently has a 2% yield which is good for a tech name. At $20 a share, this stock looks tremendously cheap based on the strong HP brand name.

Once investors take a closer look however the stock is not the bargain that it appears to be. HP just had a big quarterly miss in its most recent earnings statement. The company missed its revenue and profit targets. HP also saw its margins declining and lowered it outlook for the rest of the year.

As if that was not enough HP announced that the company is completely changing its direction. The company is trying to transform into a business software company with an emphasis on cloud computing. HP is pulling back from its bread and butter business of selling computer hardware. This transition is puzzling and places the company’s stock off of buy lists and onto watch lists.

It is difficult to trust any earnings estimates from HP going forward as the company does not know what earnings will be. All of the revenue and profit expectations have to be thrown out the window as HP seeks to reinvent itself. I would not feel comfortable buying the stock until I am sure that the company can carve out a niche for itself in the software universe.

Until then HP has to be downgraded to a speculative buy.

This article was written by [Buy Like Buffett]. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed at [RSS].


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Stock Analysis: Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Harleysville Group Inc. (HGIC). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Harleysville Group Inc. underwrites a broad array of personal and commercial coverages. These insurance coverages are marketed primarily in the Eastern and Midwestern United States.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

HGIC is trading at a discount to 1.), 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 36.1% discount to its calculated fair value of $43.60. HGIC earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

HGIC earned two Stars in this section for 2.) and 3.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. HGIC earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1986 and has increased its dividend payments for 25 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

HGIC earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $3,903. This amount is in excess of the $1,000 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as HGIC has. The stock's current yield of 5.31% exceeds the 4.1% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: HGIC is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company's peer group includes: The Chubb Corporation (CB) with a 2.8% yield, Mercury General Corporation (MCY) with a 7.0% yield and State Auto Financial Corp. (STFC) with a 3.9% yield.

Conclusion: HGIC earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks HGIC as a 4 Star-Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $45.40 before HGIC's NPV MMA Differential inrcreased to the $1,000 minimum that I look for in a stock with 25 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.26%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,000 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 3.1%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 8.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a reasonable margin of safety. HGIC has a risk rating of 2.00 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

Headquartered in Pennsylvania, HGIC underwrites property and casualty insurance policies and offers commercial automobile, workers’ compensation, and multiperil insurance, as well as personal automobile and homeowner’s insurance. The company markets its policies through almost 2,000 insurance agencies, and maintains offices in about a dozen states.

The company has with very little debt, but its free cash flow payout has increased from 33% when it was last reviewed in January 2011 to its current 73%. Although HGIC is trading well below my calculated fair value of $43.60, I would like to see a lower free cash flow payout ratio before adding to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in HGIC (4.3% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

Related Articles:
- Target Corporation (TGT) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- AT&T Inc. (T) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Weekend Reading Links - August 21, 2011

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.


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Sysco Stock Analysis

Sysco Corporation (SYY), through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes a range of food and related products primarily to the foodservice industry in the United States. Sysco is a dividend champion has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1933 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 41 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in November 2010, when the Board of Directors approved a 4% increase to 26 cents/share.


Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 3.90% to its shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver an increase in EPS of 9.50% per year since 2001. Analysts expect Sysco to earn $1.97 per share in 2011 and $2.07 per share in 2012. In comparison Sysco s earned $1.99 /share the company earned in 2010. The company has managed to consistently repurchase 1.50% of its common stock outstanding over the past decade through share buybacks.

The company has managed to generate high returns on equity, which had consistently remained above 29%. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 15.30% per year over the past decade, which is much higher than the growth in EPS.

A 15% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every five years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1975, we see that Sysco has actually managed to double its dividend every four years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio increased from 26% to 49%. The primary reason behind this steep increase was that dividends increased at almost twice the rate of earnings growth. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Sysco is trading at 15.80 times earnings, yields 3.40% and has a sustainable dividend payout. The company currently fits my entry criteria and I would look to add to my position in it subject to availability of funds.

Full Disclosure: Long SYY

Relevant Articles:


This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Why I Average Down

I believe fully in averaging down on my positions. If a position I've committed money to loses value, but the fundamentals remain the same, then this presents a long-term investor such as myself an opportunity to lower my overall cost basis on that position.

Per Investopedia, the definition of averaging down is:

"The process of buying additional shares in a company at lower prices than you originally purchased. This brings the average price you've paid for all your shares down."

When the shares of a company you own go down in value suddenly and drastically you can do one of three things.

First, you can sell the shares. This would usually be a good idea of the fundamentals of the company has changed, the long-term outlook of the company has drastically turned negative or the company changes the way it does business and you no longer agree with the direction it is going in. A dividend cut would be a prime example. You don't want to throw good money after bad.

Your second option is remaining pat and doing nothing. This might be a good idea if you're unsure as to why the market value has gone down so quickly. Also, if the guidance provides a murky short-term outlook it might be a good idea to hold your shares and commit more time to closely watching any news from the company. Remaining still might also be a good idea if the position is already beyond your normal level for asset allocation and diversification. For instance, if company Z falls 10% in value drastically, but it is already 12% of your portfolio and you usually limit individual equities to 10%, you probably do not want to commit more money. Raising your risk profile on a falling equity may not be the best idea. This really depends on your risk profile.

Lastly, you can purchase more shares. More often than not, this is what I'll do. If the overall market drops drastically, such as it recently did, most companies go down with the market. This provides a logical investor an opportunity in an illogical market. Usually, if I commit money to a position I've done my homework and feel comfortable having my hard-earned money invested in said company. If the value falls, but the long-term outlook remains stable, then there is no reason I wouldn't want to commit more money. It goes along the lines of "if I like company Z at $40, I love it at $30".

I don't believe the market is efficient. I believe there are undervalued and overvalued securities in any market any time of day. Sometimes a company turns unpopular. Often, a company will narrowly miss unrealistic earnings estimates. Perhaps the trading volume falls due to something new and shiny in the market (LinkedIn anyone?). There are many reasons a security may fall in value unjustly. When it does, I'll be there to swoop in and buy more.

But, that's me. What about you?

Thanks for reading.

This article was written by Dividend Mantra. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed.


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My Dell Goes Mmmm

Yesterday after the markets closed, Dell reported results from its most recent quarter that caused its stock price to fall 8% in after-hours trading. While we can never really know why a stock falls (as it is the result of the choices of tens of thousands of decision-makers that mostly remain anonymous), the media widely reports that the stock fell because of Dell's lowered revenue guidance. The market's infatuation with revenue growth can create excellent opportunities for value investors.


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A Stock With A 6% Yield

While there are a lot of good yielders in the market right now, there is one company that has a yield that is simply too good to pass up. The recent market drop has bought AT&T back into the spotlight. There are a number of reasons why AT&T is so attractive. AT&T is one of the best yielders in the market. The company is one of the biggest players in the telecommunications industry. This is an industry that includes rivals Verizon and Sprint. AT&T is trying to increase its size by gobbling up the operations of T-Mobile. This merger will still require approval by the federal government.

AT&T has been aggressively expanding its businesses with acquisitions. There is the pending deal for T-Mobile and the $1.9 billion dollar purchase of Qualcomm’s Spectrum company. AT&T is trying to increase its subscriber base and wireless service offerings with the purchases. They are seen as key components of the company’s future growth plans.

AT&T is a cash flow giant with $36 billion dollars in operating cash flow. The company has a cash flow rate of just shy of 70%. AT&T’s primary concern is its massive debt load. The company just retired some near term debt by issuing more long term debt. It would be nice to see the company start to pay down its long term debt obligations. Despite’s these challenges AT&T’s stock is a solid one for income seekers.

The company’s dividend is the highest yielder in telecommunications. Compare AT&T’s dividend yield to that of its competitors. The company currently has a 6.1% yield is far more attractive than almost any other large cap stock in the industry. Verizon has a similar yield to AT&T at 5.7%. Sprint pays no dividend whatsoever and has a bunch of problems of its own.

AT&T is currently trading at $28 a share. Shares are not less than 10% from the 52 week low of $26.20 per share. That is only 1.4 times the current book value of $19.18 per share. The current payout is 60% of this year’s earnings estimates. AT&T has a long term history of increasing its dividend having raised its dividends for 28 straight years.


This article was written by [Buy Like Buffett]. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed at [RSS].


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Stock Analysis: Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Chevron Corporation (CVX). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Chevron Corporation is a global integrated oil company (formerly ChevronTexaco) with interests in exploration, production, refining and marketing, and petrochemicals.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

CVX is trading at a discount to 2.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a slight premium to its calculated fair value of $93.59. CVX did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

CVX earned one Star in this section for 2.) above. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1912 and has increased its dividend payments for 24 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

The NPV MMA Diff. of the $677 is below the $1,100 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CVX has. If CVX grows its dividend at 7.3% per year, it will take 5 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.1%.

Memberships and Peers: CVX is a member of the S&P 500 a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index. The company's peer group includes: BP plc (BP) with a 1.9% yield, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) with a 2.4% yield and ConocoPhillips (COP) with a 3.7% yield.

Conclusion: CVX did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of one Star. This quantitatively ranks CVX as a 1 Star-Very Weak stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $84.01 before CVX's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,100 minimum that I look for in a stock with 24 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.64%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,100 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 8.7%. This dividend growth rate is slightly above the 7.3% used in this analysis, thus providing no margin of safety. CVX has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

CVX is reducing its refining footprint and focusing on large, long-lived upstream projects with higher margins and growth potential. The company is finding it increasingly difficult to expand production and add reserves. The remaining pools of cheap, easily accessible resources large enough to interest the larger players reside in the hands of governments and national oil companies. This has forced CVX to focus on deepwater exploration. The company hopes to begin drilling at three deepwater prospects in 2011.

The company's financials are generally good. Several metrics are just outside my desired range. Though its free cash flow payout is below my 60% maximum, CVX had one year of negative free cash flow during the last 10 which prevents it from earning a star. Also, it is trading at a slight premium to my $93.59 calculated fair value. For now, I plan to wait on a slightly better entry point.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in CVX (1.1% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

Related Articles:
- Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- AT&T Inc. (T) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Weekend Reading Links - August 14, 2011

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.


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Illinois Tool Works Stock Analysis

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) manufactures a range of industrial products and equipment worldwide. Illinois Tool Works is a dividend champion, has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1933 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 47 years. The most recent dividend increase was in August 2010, when the Board of Directors approved a 9.70% increase to 34 cents/share.


The largest competitors of Illinois Tool Works include Timken Co (TKR), Kaydon Corp (KDN) and SKF AB (SKFRY).

Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 8.10% to its shareholders.
The company has managed to deliver an increase in EPS of 9.70% per year since 2002. Analysts expect Illinois Tool Works to earn $3.93 per share in 2012 and $4.59 per share in 2013. In comparison Illinois Tool Works earned $3.03 /share the company earned in 2011.

The returns on equity are on the rebound, after hitting a low of 11.80% in 2010. Right now this indicator is on the rebound, as higher expected earnings would certainly improve returns on equity. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.
The annual dividend payment has increased by 13.40% per year over the past decade, which is much higher than the growth in EPS.
A 13% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every five and a half years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1987, we see that Illinois Tool Works has actually managed to double its dividend every five years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio increased from 32% to 42%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
Currently Illinois Tool Works is trading at 16 times earnings, yields 2.30% and has a sustainable dividend payout. I would consider adding to my position in the stock on dips below 54.

Full Disclosure: Long ITW

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This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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5 Stocks On Sale

With the drop in the market being the talk of the town, it's not terribly difficult to find value. I could probably put a list of 30 or more stocks that I find particular value in, but I think ultimately you want to stick to your plan. You should always think about allocation, diversification and buying quality on sale.

Here's a diversified list of quality equities on sale:

Aflac Incorporated (AFL)

Aflac is down over 10% today. It's trading at a 9.33 P/E ratio. I think this stock is of particular value, as I thought it was already attractively valued in the mid-$40's. It has a yield of 3.37% at today's prices, which is unusually high for this company.

Intel Corporation (INTC)

Intel is a tech titan trading at a very attractive valuation. It is also trading in a single digit P/E ratio of 9.13. It has an entry yield 4.21% based on today's price. This stock is trading below my cost basis, and am strongly considering adding to my holdings.

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Energy has been getting hammered lately, right along with insurance. Oil has fallen dramatically lately, and that puts a lot of energy stocks on sale. Chevron is trading for a P/E ratio of only 7.91 with a yield of 3.44%. Great long-term holding here.

Abbott Laboratories (ABT)

Health care hasn't been immune to the downturn and ABT is trading at very attractive values right now. The P/E ratio is a lowly 14.28 and the yield is currently at 4.09%. I really like the long-term prospects of Abbott and it's one of the stronger companies available in its space.

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)

Pepsi may not be the fabulous deal that other stocks on this list are, but it's a wonderful company that is extremely dominant in the snack food category. It's trading at a P/E ratio of 15.36 and has an entry yield of 3.42%, which is very attractive for this stock.

There are a number of attractively priced equities out there, and I think this is a phenomenal time to deploy captial, if you have it. We may see further drops in the market, but that would just be an even better time to buy than it already is. I enjoy getting paid dividends in the mean time.



Full Disclosure: I'm long INTC, CVX, ABT, PEP

Thanks for reading.

This article was written by Dividend Mantra. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed.


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Color That Tongue Blond!

The Q&A sessions during company conference calls are usually filled with the questions of analysts with very short-term mindsets. This is illustrated by the nature of their questions, which can range from "Is your gross margin next quarter likely to be 23.3% or 23.4%?" to "Were sales in the 3rd week of July higher or lower than they were in the 2nd week in July?". But on the most recent conference call for Blonder Tongue (BDR), a shareholder with a different agenda appeared. The price has fallen so low, that the caller wanted to talk liquidation value!


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Is ADP A Buy?

One of the places that investors can look to for dividends are the payroll processing companies. This industry is dominated by the two largest processing companies which are ADP (ADP) and Paychex (PAYX). Both companies compete to be the main administrator of payroll and benefits management for small and medium sized business. Let’s take a look at the leading payroll company and see if its shares are a buy.

Automated Data Processing is currently trading at $45 per share. The stock trades at 17 times earnings which is pretty expensive considering that the company is growing at a 10% rate. The company’s growth has been hindered by the bad economy like many of its competitors. Earnings peak in the payroll processing industry when the economy is performing well and unemployment is low. That has not been the environment for ADP over the past few years.

Last quarter ADP beat the market’s expectation by achieving top line revenue growth of 14%. The company is now forecasting earnings growth for the year of 7%. This number made not seem that large but it is. It is amazing that ADP has been able to achieve the growth that it has in the current economic environment. Paychex for example reported a bad earnings number last quarter and is struggling to keep up with the competition.

ADP has a great balance sheet with $1.4 billion dollars in cash and just $34 million dollars in debt. ADP is currently paying investors a dividend of $1.44 per share and has a 3% yield. The 3% yield is close to being in line with the historical dividend yield of 2.9%.

This is below the 4.6% yield that Paychex is offering. ADP’s dividend is much more sustainable considering that the payout is slightly more than 50% of the company’s earnings. That is much easier to maintain than the near 100% dividend payout that Paychex is offering. If earnings stay at the same rate going forward Paychex will be looking at a dividend cut while ADP’s dividend has room for an increase.

Investors should not run out and buy shares of ADP now as the stock is likely to get much cheaper over the next few weeks. Although the dividend is solid, shares are not yet a bargain. With the stock trading at 2.2 times book value and nearly 2 times earnings, ADP is still too pricey in a market with much cheaper stocks.
 

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Stock Analysis: Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Leggett & Platt, Inc. (LEG). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Leggett & Platt Inc. makes a broad line of bedding and furniture components and other home, office and commercial furnishings, as well as diversified products for non-furnishings markets.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

LEG is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 28.9% premium to its calculated fair value of $16.84. LEG did not earn any Stars in this section.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

LEG earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%.

LEG earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1939 and has increased its dividend payments for 39 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

LEG earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $548. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as LEG has. The stock's current yield of 4.98% exceeds the 4.1% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: LEG is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: Hooker Furniture Corp. (HOFT) with a 4.4% yield, Flexsteel Industries Inc. (FLXS) with a 1.9% yield and Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) with a 1.5% yield.

Conclusion: LEG did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks LEG as a 4 Star-Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $22.21 before LEG's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 39 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.86%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 1.6%. This dividend growth rate is slightly below the 1.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a minimal margin of safety. LEG has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

In spite of being a highly cyclical company, LEG has a long history of profitability and generating strong free cash flow. In addition, its low debt to total capital of 36% provides additional flexibility. With its high yield the stock is appealing. The stock is trading 29% above my calculated fair value of $17.59. With the recent market weakness, I will look for a more favorable time to add to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in LEG (1.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio). See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

Related Articles:
- AT&T Inc. (T) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) Dividend Stock Analysis
- H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Weekend Reading Links - August 7, 2011

For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:

Articles From DIV-Net Members

There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.


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Lowe's Stock Analysis

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Lowe’s is one of the original dividend aristocrats, has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1961 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 49 years.

The most recent dividend increase was in May 2011, when the Board of Directors approved a 27.30% increase to 14 cents/share. The largest competitor of Lowe’s includes Home Depot (HD).


Over the past decade this dividend growth stock has delivered an annualized total return of 3.40% to its shareholders.

The company has managed to deliver an increase in EPS of 9.10% per year since 2002. Analysts expect Lowe’s to earn $1.64 per share in 2012 and $1.90 per share in 2013. In comparison Lowe’s earned $1.42 /share the company earned in 2011.


The returns on equity have declined from a high of 21% in 2006 to a low of 9.60% in 2010. Right now this indicator is on the rebound, as higher expected earnings would certainly improve returns on equity. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.

The annual dividend payment has increased by 31.50% per year over the past decade, which is much higher than the growth in EPS.

A 31% growth in distributions translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every two and a half years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1980, we see that Lowe’s has actually managed to double its dividend every five years on average.

Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio increased from 5% to 31%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.

Currently Lowe’s is trading at 16.60 times earnings, yields 2.40% and has a sustainable dividend payout. I recently initiated a position in the stock. I find the stock attractively valued on dips below 22.50.

Full Disclosure: Long LOW

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This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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Bear or Bull?

The DJIA has slid over 686 points from July 5, 2011-Aug 3, 2011. That's a huge 5.45% drop for the DOW.

The question becomes: are you a bear or a bull?

The bears could easily point to the fact the U.S. government only narrowly missed a default on its obligations. Although the U.S. is currently going to retain it's coveted AAA credit rating, there is the threat that it will be downgraded next year. The deficit is going to be cut by $2.1 trillion over the next decade instead of the $4 trillion the credit rating agencies were looking for. The Eurozone is mired in debt and unpopular austerity measures. Greece and Ireland are going broke. Consumers are not spending and the housing market here in the U.S. is wobbly.

The bulls have a fighting chance. The worst seems to be behind us and a lot of investors are confident that the debt concerns in Europe are overblown. The market drop has provided an opportunity for long-term investors to purchase their favorite equities on sale, relative to their trading prices just one month ago. Many blue chips are reporting strong earnings. Some markets may have seen a bottom to the housing drop. A true bull will be greedy when others are fearful. This is one of those times.

Personally, I'm a long-term investor and I plan on being actively invested for the next 40 years. I believe 10-20 years down the road this will all just be a blip on the radar. Because of that, I'm a bull.

What about you? Bear or Bull?

Thanks for reading.

This article was written by Dividend Mantra. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed.


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C-Com: Lots of Cash, But Still Issues Debt

If a corporation has a lot of cash, one would think it doesn't need to take on the added costs (through interest payments) associated with debt. But it appears things in practice are a little different from what they are in theory; a simple screen on robotdough.com demonstrates that there are some 1200 public companies in the US in net cash positions that still feel the need to carry debt, paying interest charges that would otherwise be part of shareholder earnings. There can be many legitimate reasons for doing this, but some reasons are more legit than others! C-com (CMI) is actually making currency speculations with its debt!

A logical reason a company may have debt even though it has even more cash has to do with its debt repayment schedule. If debt is due relatively soon, it's only prudent that the company have the cash on hand to pay it off. But this group represents a relatively small subset of the companies who carry debt despite large cash balances.

A major reason many international companies are in this high-cash-some-debt boat has to do with tax laws. For American companies in particular, tax charges for bringing home money that was earned abroad are rather punitive. As such, these companies often borrow at home to fund what they'd rather be doing (e.g. paying out shareholders and/or hiring employees) with cash that is stuck abroad. Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) are among the companies in this boat.

Another reason a company may have tons of cash and still carry debt may have to do with its being a Chinese RTO. Just because the bank says the cash balance is $100 million (or $200 million, because if you're going to lie, you might as well make it worth your while) doesn't mean you can spend it on salaries. Management of such companies would need debt to grow the operations of the company (however highly exaggerated they may be), despite "cash balances" well in excess of these amounts.

But C-Com doesn't really fit any of the above categories. Though it is an international company, Canadian tax rates and laws are such that repatriation is not such a big deal. And yet despite a cash balance of just under $10 million, management saw fit to take out a $2.8 million loan, bringing the cash balance up to $12.5 million. Here's why:

"Management decided to increase its cash secured line of credit...to meet its Canadian dollar obligations rather than convert its United States dollars into Canadian dollars at unfavourable exchange rate."

In other words, the company is starting to speculate on currency! As the Canadian dollar has strengthened recently against the greenback, the company is betting the opposite will happen. While I may agree with their thinking, I am by no means sure about it, and I don't see how they can be either. Currency markets can stay out of whack for many years at a time, and so this decision increases this company's risk: the company has effectively increased the currency mismatch between its costs and its revenues by increasing its Canadian dollar costs, which have to be paid down with US dollars at some point.

Rather than taking additional currency risks, C-Com would probably have been better served had it hedged its currency mismatch by purchasing forward currency contracts. Since it did not do that ("The Company typically does not enter into foreign currency hedges"), it seems to be trying to recoup currency losses by speculating that currency movements will reverse themselves. The company has enough business risks...why add to the list?

Disclosure: No positionThis article was written by Saj Karsan of Barel Karsan. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to the feed.


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Rising Dividend Payments In The Trash Industry

The recent debate over the United States debt deal has led to a bad week for stocks. Many investors have seen their shares plunge as the market had its worst week in awhile. While the market drop may be bad news for old investors, it does prevent an opportunity for new investors. There are some good dividend yields in the market and I would like to take a look at one today. The company in question is Republic Services.

Republic Services Group (RSG) s the 2nd largest provider of waste management services in the United States. The garbage industry is incredibly competitive with firms consistently underbidding each other in order to win contracts. The company’s chief competition is Waste management who is the largest player in the industry. Republic Services has been a long time investing favorite of Microsoft founder Bill Gates.

The company recently reported solid quarterly earnings and chose to reward investors with a share increase. Earnings per share came in at 12 cent per share which was a drop. Revenue came in at $1.5 billion dollars. The company saw its cash position rise nearly fourfold with more than $305 million dollars in cash and cash equivalents. Commercial and industrial collections increased across the board.

The company has been doing a better job of improving its cash ratios and extinguishing its own debt. Investors are benefiting from this in the form of higher dividends. Republic Services increased its dividend payout 10% to 22 cents per share just this week.That is the third consecutive annual dividend increase. The company has now become a quality dividend stock with its yield of 3.06%. The yield over 3% placed Republic Services into investor friendly territory.

Since the current payout represents slightly more than half of the current year’s earnings, the payout appears to be sustainable. Shares are reasonably priced at 1.4 times book value and 1.3 times sales. The 15 P/E ratio is right in line with many industry competitors. This is a company that an investor can safely place on their dividend stocks watchlist.


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Stock Analysis: Target Corporation (TGT)

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Target Corporation (TGT). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Target Corp. operates operates about 1,500 Target and 250 SuperTarget general merchandise stores across the U.S.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

TGT is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 21.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $65.78. TGT earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

TGT earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. TGT earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2002-2005, 2003-2006, 2004-2007, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1965 and has increased its dividend payments for 44 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

TGT earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $5,316. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as TGT has. If TGT grows its dividend at 17.4% per year, it will take 5 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.1%.

Memberships and Peers: TGT is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) with a 2.7% yield, Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) with a 1.2% yield and Family Dollar Stores (FDO) with a 1.3% yield.

Conclusion: TGT earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks TGT as a 3 Star-Hold stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $114.20 before TGT's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 44 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 0.96%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 10.2%. This dividend growth rate is well below the 17.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a significant margin of safety. TGT has a risk rating of 1.75 which classifies it as a Medium risk stock.

TGT has produced fairly consistent earnings and cash flows over the last decade. However, returns on invested capital will likely to decline as the firm transitions a larger portion of assets to its lower-return food business (PFresh). The Canadian market should provide an attractive incremental growth opportunity for the company. Management intends to sell the credit card receivables business.

The company has made remarkable strides since I last did a detailed review in August 2008. It then was rated as a 1-Star company with a low yield of 1.25%. Although it is trading below my fair value price of $65.78, I am not quite ready to buy. Its double-digit dividend growth rate since 2005 has made this company one to watch.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.

Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in TGT (0.0% of my Income Portfolio) and was long in WMT. See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.

Related Articles:
- H.J. Heinz Company (HNZ) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Watsco, Inc. (WSO) Dividend Stock Analysis
- AFLAC Incorporated (AFL) Dividend Stock Analysis
- 3M Company (MMM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- More Stock Analysis

This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].


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