Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) provides technology-based outsourcing solutions to employers, and vehicle retailers and manufacturers. It operates in three segments: Employer Services, Professional Employer Organization Services, and Dealer Services. This dividend aristocrat has raised dividends for 35 consecutive years. Back in November 2009 Automatic Data Processing announced a 3% dividend increase.
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an average total return of 1.20% annually. In 2007 ADP spun off its Brokerage Services business, distributing one share of Broadridge Financial (BR) common stock for every four shares of ADP common stock held by shareholders. The total returns calculation for ADP over the past decade includes this transaction.
The company has managed to deliver an 8.10% average annual increase in its EPS between 2000 and 2009. Analysts expect Automatic Data Processing to earn $2.40 share in FY 2010, followed by an increase to $2.55/share in FY 2011.
The Return on Equity has remained in a tight range between 17% and 26%. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.
Annual dividends have increased by an average of 15.90% annually since 2000, which is higher than the growth in EPS. A 16 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every four and a half years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1974, Automatic Data Processing has indeed managed to double its dividend payment every four and a half years.
Over the past decade the dividend payout ratio has doubled to 50%. This is a direct result of the higher dividend growth in proportion to earnings growth. As the company matures, it has returned most of its earnings back to stockholders in the form of increased distributions and share buybacks. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
Currently Automatic Data Processing is attractively valued at 15.70 times earnings, yields 3.20% and has an adequately covered dividend payment. In comparison to its closest competitor Paychex (PAYX), which trades at a P/E of 20.40 and yields 4.60% with a dividend payout ratio of 94%. I view ADP as more attractively valued. I would be looking forward to adding to my position in Automatic Data Processing (ADP) on dips.
Full Disclosure: Long ADP
Relevant Articles:
- Paychex (PAYX) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Eight Companies Rewarding investors with higher dividend payments
- 14 Dividend Stocks with Dividend Growth Potential
- Dividend Investing Works in All Markets
This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
Friday, July 30, 2010
Stock Analysis: Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Thursday, July 29, 2010
National Grid – International Utility Priced to Buy
National Grid plc (NGG) is a London-based utility company. It owns and operates of regulated electricity and gas infrastructure networks in United Kingdom (Wales and Scotland) and North Eastern United States (upstate New York, NYC, Long Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island). It serves approximately 20 million consumers in the United Kingdom and the United States.
NGG is part of Mergent’s International Dividend Achiever Index and has been paying growing dividends since last 12 years. My objective here is to analyze if NGG continues to be a good dividend growth stock and how it will rate on my scale of risk-to-dividends.
Trend Analysis
Here I am looking at trends for past 9 years of corporation’s revenue and profitability. These parameters should show consistently growth trends. The image below shows the trend charts. 
Risk Parameter Calculation
Here I use the corporation’s financial health to assign a risk number for measuring risk-to-dividends. The risk number for risk-to-dividends is 1.57. This is a medium risk category as per my 3-point risk scale.
Quality of Dividends
This section measures the dividend growth rate, duration of growth, consistency over a period of past five years.
Fair Value Calculation
This section determines what price I should pay to buy a given stock
Qualitative Analysis
Conclusion
NGG is an International Dividend Achiever and has been raising dividends for last 13 years. The stocks current risk-to-dividend rating is 1.57 (medium risk). This is a typical utility stock with slow dividend growth. The projected dividend cash flow is 6 times MMA cash flow after 10 years (at price of $40). This analysis shows that NGG continues to be a good stock for potential international dividend growth investment. I will continue to add to existing positions as along as my allocation allows.
Full Disclosure: Long on NGG.
This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed at [feed link].
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Accounting For Splits
Some market participants try to make money off of stock splits, expecting the supply or demand of shares to rise or fall following splits or reverse splits. On the other hand, value investors recognize that the intrinsic value of the company has not changed post-split, and therefore stock splits are considered irrelevant events. Unfortunately, however, splits can complicate one's valuation of a company; accounting for splits is not just a matter of adjusting the number of shares outstanding and the price per share. Recent splits can cause valuations to go haywire if not properly accounted for.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Stock Analysis: Waste Management (WM)
Waste Management (WM) is the largest waste management company in the United States controlling nearly 30% of the waste management market. The company has 43,000 employees and serves approximately 20 million commercial, residential, and industrial customers. Waste Management has “367 collection operations, 355 transfer stations, 273 active landfill disposal sites, 16 waste-to-energy plants, 134 recycling plants, and 111 beneficial-use landfill gas projects."
Waste Management generated $11.7 billion dollars in sales last year. The company is expecting to earn $12.4 billion in revenue this year and nearly $13 billion in 2011. The company has been able to achieve top line growth through acquisitions and business expansion. Revenue is slated to increase 5.3% for the current year and 4.3% next year. The company has above average operating and profit margins for the waste management industry with 16.5% and 8.5% respectively.
The waste management industry is a defensive industry that can thrive during booms and recessions. Strong cash flows and pricing power are constants throughout the industry. Waste Management Inc. does not face many threats from new market entrants because of the high barriers. The industry is extremely capital intensive and subject to increased governmental regulations. Waste Management’s largest competitor is Republic Services. The two companies together account for more than half of the trash collection in the United States.
Over the past few months, Waste Management has been working to grow its brand. Company management has made a strategic investment in Enerkum’s biofuel plant and acquired assets from Milum Textile Service. Management has also done a good job of providing value to shareholders. The company has a return on equity of 16.8% and a return on assets just south of 6%.
The only drawback for Waste Management is its huge debt load of $8.8 billion dollars. The debt load forced the company to restructure its debt during the economic crisis of 2009. Waste Management should have no problem servicing its debt in the future with its large amounts of free cash flow. Waste Management is a cash machine generating $2.3 billion in free cash flow last year.
For 2011, Waste Management is projected to earn $2.38 per share. Earnings are projected to grow 9.25% over the next 5 years. The stock trades at just 14 times earnings which is below the industry average of 16.7. The company is a great dividend play with shares currently yielding 3.8%. The historical dividend yield has been 2.9%. The dividend is sustainable since the company currently pays out just 57% of earnings via dividends.
Shares of Waste Management are not cheap based on a price/book ratio or its price/earnings growth. The stock is a value however based on its discounted P/E, dividend yield, and premium franchise. Long term investors should feel comfortable buying shares in the low $30’s.
This article was written by [Buy Like Buffett]. If you enjoyed this article, please consider subscribing to my feed at [RSS].
Monday, July 26, 2010
Stock Analysis: General Dynamics (GD)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in GD (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of General Dynamics (GD). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: General Dynamics is the world's sixth largest military contractor and also one of the world's biggest makers of corporate jets.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
GD is trading at a discount to 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. Since GD's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 6.4% discount to its calculated fair value of $65.49. GD earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
GD earned two Stars in this section for 1.) and 2.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1979 and has increased its dividend payments for 17 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
The NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,090 is below the $1,800 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as GD has. If GD grows its dividend at 10.1% per year, it will take 5 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.02%.
Other: GD is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: GD earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned two Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and did not earn any Stars in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks GD as a 3 Star-Hold.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to decrease to $51.39 before PNY's NPV MMA Differential increased to the $1,800 minimum that I look for in a stock with 17 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 3.19%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $1,800 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 11.7%. This dividend growth rate is higher than the 10.1% used in this analysis, thus not providing any margin of safety. GD has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
GD is an important supplier to the U.S. Department of Defense with strategic products such as the M1 Abrams battle tank and Virginia-class nuclear submarines. Near-term, funding for new Virginia Class submarines should provide continued growth. Defense spending will likely ease long-term due to budget deficits and shifting military priorities. However, GD's varied products and acquisitions should allow the firm to continue to generate returns above their cost of capital for years to come. GD is worthy of additional consideration when trading below my buy price of $65.49. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - July 25, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Stock Analysis: Chubb Corporation (CB)
The Chubb Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals. The company operates through three segments: Personal Insurance, Commercial Insurance, and Specialty Insurance. The company is member of the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index.Chubb has increased dividends for 45 years in a row. The company announced a 5.70% dividend increase in February 2010, plus a 14 million share repurchase initiative. This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an average total return of 5.90% annually.
The company has managed to deliver a 13.30% average annual increase in its EPS between 2000 and 2009. Chubb is expected to earn $5.30 share in FY 2010, followed by $5.60/share in FY 2011.
The Return on Equity has remained around 15% for the latter part of the last decade, after falling to as low as 2% earlier. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.
Annual dividends have increased by an average of 8.70 % annually since 2000, which is slower than the growth in EPS. The disparity is mostly due to a gradual decrease in the dividend payout ratio and the billions of dollars the insurer has spent on stock buybacks.A 9 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every eight years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1984, Chubb has actually managed to double its dividend payment every nine years on average.
The dividend payout ratio has been on the decline, and is still much lower than my 50% threshold. 2001 and 2002 stick as outliers, since earnings per share were lower on high underwriting combined ratios. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
Currently Chubb is trading at 9.20 times earnings, yields 3.10% and has an adequately covered dividend payment. In comparison rival Travelers Cos (TRV) trades at a P/E multiple of 8 and yields 2.90% , while Cincinnati Financial (CINF) trades at a P/E multiple of 9 and yields 5.90%. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is also a competitor to Chubb(CB), although it trades at a P/E of 22, and does not pay a dividend. The company does spend a lot of its cash flow on stock buybacks, which could prove beneficial in the long run since it could provide above average dividend growth over time for the same effort. I like the company and its business model. Insurance companies like Chubb (CB) are a way for investors to fill in the need for exposure to the financial sector, after several high profile payers like Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) cut their distributions.I believe that the company is attractively valued at the moment; thus I would be looking forward to adding to my position in Chubb (CB).
Full Disclosure: Long CB
Relevant Articles:
- Six Significant Dividend Increases
- 14 Dividend Stocks with Dividend Growth Potential
- A dividend portfolio for the long-term
- Financial Stocks for Dividend Investors
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Number of Companies in an Individual’s Portfolio ?
Being a dividend investors, I am looking for companies that have potential to grow their dividends over time. I have observed that companies that grow their dividends, with good quality of earnings, the market value (or share price) also grows. This not only provides dividend cash flow, but also the capital appreciation over time.
Now, in case of concentrating the portfolio to small number of stocks will increase my risk. Assuming equal allocation in 10 companies, when any one company suspends dividends, it will reduce my dividend cash flow by 10%. That is a very large drop. Therefore, I am targeting to build my portfolio with 30 to 35 companies.
- The reason for using 30 to 35 companies is that I want to limit the risk if dividend cash flow to any single company to maximum of 5%. In one my earlier post, I have discussed the process of risk management.
- It would be a folly to expect that all companies in the portfolio would continue to pay growing dividends. 100% success rate is purely an illusion. However, I would expect that at a minimum there would always be 20 to 25 companies performing as per my initial expectation. These will continue to provide growing dividends over time. I also expect that they will continue to increase their value.
- The remaining ones may or may not perform. I will have to continue to make changes such as adding to existing ones, removing, and adding newer ones.
- In addition, I also understand my limitation of not being able to keep track of more companies.
At present, I continue to hold approximately 27 companies. One of the benefit of long term buy and hold investing is that you do not need to keep following the market daily or monthly; all of the companies that I select are not going to vanish or crash in such short period of time. Sure, some small number will have problems like 2008/2009, but I do not expect to have all of them in a same crashing bucket. If it does happen, then it was likely due to improper portfolio management process.
This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) Dividend Stock Analysis 2010
Summary
-Smuckers is an interesting investment choice with decent dividends and fast growth.
-Revenue has increased by an average of 21% annually over the past four years.
-Earnings have increased by an average of 38% annually over the past four years.
-These astoundingly high numbers are put into perspective by the fact that Smuckers has dramatically increased its number of shares over this time period, so the fuel for this growth was largely due to issuing shares.
-The company is still partly family run, meaning that management should have long-term goals in mind.
-The company has a clean balance sheet with a Total Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17.
-The dividend yield is about 2.60% and has grown by an average of 7% annually over the past 5 years. The most recent increase was 14%.
-Smuckers looks like a decent value with share prices in the low $60s.
How to Read My Stock Analysis Reports
Overview
The J.M. Smuckers Company (symbol: SJM) was founded in 1897, is headquartered in Ohio, and is still run by the Smuckers family.
The company produces jam, jelly, preserves, peanut butter, sandwich products, ice cream toppings, baking products, oil, juices, and coffee.
The company draws its revenue almost entirely from North America.
Business Segments
The four business segments are:
U.S. Retail Coffee Market
This segment has high profit margins, accounting for 37% of total company sales but 49% of total company profits. The biggest product here is Folgers Coffee which was acquired in 2008 from Proctor and Gamble.
U.S. Retail Consumer Market
This segment accounts for 24% of total company sales.
U.S. Retail Oils and Baking Market
This segment accounts for 20% of total company sales.
Special Markets
This segment accounts for 19% of total company sales.
Revenue, Earnings, Cash Flow, and Margins
Smuckers has had massive revenue, earnings, and cash flow growth because it has issued shares to pay for big acquisitions.Note: Smuckers ends its fiscal year in April.
Revenue Growth

Smuckers has increased company revenue by an average of 21% per year over these past 4 years.
For the full year ending in 2002, Smuckers had $650 million in sales, 25 million shares outstanding, and 2,300 employees. For the full year ending in 2010, Smuckers had $4,605 in sales, 119 million shares outstanding, and 4,850 employees. This amounts to a monstrous 28% average revenue growth over that 8 year period, but the cost was that shares were dramatically diluted. But, looking at the numbers, in 2002, Smuckers had $26 in sales per share, while in 2010 Smuckers had over $38 in sales per share. This amounts to about 5% in average annual sales growth per share. EarningsGrowth
Over these four years of growth, the company has grown net earnings at a rate of about 38% per year. This outrageous number is impressive, but keep in mind that the company also dramatically increased its number of shares during this time period.
As of April 2010, the company has a little bit over 118 million in shares outstanding. This number was a little under 57 million during April 2008.
Cash Flow Growth
During the three years of growth between 2007 and 2010, Smuckers has increased cash flow at a rate of nearly 38% per year. Again, the increase in the number of shares must be kept in mind.
Profit Margin
Smuckers has a profit margin of about 11%. This number is up over the 5 year average due to a large acquisition of Folgers coffee in 2008 which carried with it very high margins.
Dividends
Smuckers currently has a dividend yield of about 2.60%.
Dividend Growth
*During 2008, Smuckers also paid a one-time large special dividend as part of an acquisition deal which is not included here.
During this time period, the company has grown its dividend by an average of 7% annually. The most recent increase between 2009 and 2010 was an increase from $0.35 per quarter to $0.40 per quarter which is an increase of over 14%. The payout ratio is currently only about 34% which is moderately low and provides a lot of room for dividend growth and stability.
Balance Sheet
Smuckers has an outstanding balance sheet. The ratio of Total Debt to Equity is only 0.17 meaning that Smuckers has a fairly low debt load.
Investment Thesis
Smuckers is an interesting investment choice. With a market capitalization of over $7 billion, Smuckers has size and stability but plenty of room to grow. There are several Smuckers family members that own millions of dollars in company stock and run the company. When you have your name and your wealth on the line, in addition to 110+ years of operating history, you're almost certainly going to think in the long-term instead of stressing about short term profits to please shareholders. Family-run companies in general tend to align with what makes a dividend-paying company good in the first place: consistency and an emphasis on long-term returns. The leaders are likely to be focused on building their company, not on their pay packages and perks.The company, as can be seen by the above financial information, has chosen to focus on a path of dramatic growth that it has fueled by issuing shares to pay for acquisitions. It's largest purchase by far was Folgers which had a huge effect on company revenue and earnings. This is worth noting with caution, but I feel that the risk is reduced by the fact that the company has continually grown shareholder value and is led by the Smuckers family which has its name and wealth on the line. As large as it was, I feel that Folger's, a major home coffee brand in the US, was a good acquisition for the long-run.
Smuckers has a long line of successful acquisitions in its history.
2003- Crisco and Jif
2004- Crosse and Blackwell
2005- Pillsbury, Robin Hood, Golden Temple, Martha White, Bicks, Hungry Jack
2007- Five Roses, White Lily
2008- Eagle Brand, Europe's Best, Snack'n Waffles, Carnation, King Kelly
2009- Folgers, Knotts
The main emphasis by this company is to focus on establishing and maintaining #1 brands.
In 2008, Smuckers initiated and completed a very large acquisition of Folgers coffee from Proctor and Gamble, and this was reported under the 2009 fiscal year. This resulted in issuance of stock, a special large dividend, and massively increased revenue and profits. Smuckers, over these years, now has a huge string of growth along with share dilution with the overall result being increased shareholder value.
In the next few years into 2013, according to a recent investor presentation, Smuckers is focusing on company restructuring. They will be consolidating fruit spreads, ice cream toppings, and syrups into an existing Ohio facility and a new Ohio facility that they will begin construction on. Coffee manufacturing will be consolidated into two existing facilities in Louisiana. The company expects to save $60 million per year and reduce its workforce by 15%, and the restructuring cost is expected to be $190 million.
The company's long-term objective is to grow sales at a rate of 6% per year while growing earnings-per-share by at least 8% per year. The plan is to do this through new products, increased market share, and acquisitions. When the dividend is included in these projections, the company hopes to offer solid growth to shareholders.
Risks
Like any company, SJM has risks. Being a food company, they are a defensive stock, but they always face risk in two main forms: commodity costs and cheaper private label competition. In addition, in contrast to many large American companies, Smuckers has most of its sales and operations in North America, meaning it is geographically concentrated.
Conclusion and Valuation
I find that Smuckers is attractively valued as it currently is with shares trading hands in the low $60s.
This article was written by Dividend Monk. You may email questions or comments to me at dividendmonk@gmail.com.
Full Disclosure: I own shares of SJM at the time of this writing.
You can see my full list of individual holdings here.
Further reading:
Emerson (EMR) Dividend Stock Analysis
Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) Dividend Stock Analysis
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Dividend Stock Analysis
8 Reasons to go with Dividends
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tariffs Are Not The Answer
With the US unemployment rate holding near 10% for several months, there has been a great clamour for government-sponsored initiatives that will help spur job creation. One such crusade that has gained traction across several sectors of the manufacturing industry is the call for import tariffs. Those who support import tariffs are no doubt well-meaning (at least, towards their domestic citizenry they are), but their stance is helping hold America back from its more prosperous potential.
5 Mispriced Stocks Based on P/FCF
Free cash flow is an important measure for a value investor. A company that can generate positive free cash flow will be able to fund operations moving forwards, pay their dividends, do not rely on debt and best of all will not declare bankruptcy or be in financial health.
The common FCF formula is:
Cash from operations - Capital expenditure
Once you know the FCF you can then find the Price to FCF ratio by the following
Market Cap / FCF
I like the P/FCF measure because not only is it overlooked but it provides a unique view into how cheap a company really is. Since FCF represents the cash that a company is able to generate after spending money to maintain or expand its asset base, FCF a much better "earnings" guide than plain old EPS that can be manipulated by accounting tricks.
If Wall Street focuses on PE as a measuring stick for cheapness, than P/FCF is the measuring stick for value investors.
As an example, look at some of these companies
Ticker P/E P/FCF
IBM 12.5 12
PFE 11.72 7.6
JNJ 12.5 16.9
As you can see, IBM, PFE and JNJ are great investments but PFE being the exception, IBM and JNJ are selling for over 10x FCF.
5 Mispriced Stocks Based on P/FCF
Name Ticker P/E P/FCF
Boise BZ 3.4 1.34
Central Garden & Pet Co CENT 9.6 2.8
Micron Technology MU 5.8 4
Collective Brands PSS 10.2 4.85
Signet Jewelers SIG 12.7 5.22
The above 5 stocks all cheap based on P/FCF. Boise current market value is just a little more than its FCF. These stocks are much smaller in comparison to the giants of IBM, PFE and JNJ but certainly worth a closer look.
Disclosure None
This article was written by Old School Value. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Telefonica - A window of opportunity for investors?
Telefonica (TEF) is the 3rd largest telecom service provided in the world and its stock price has recently sunk to level not seen since the market correction in latter part of 2008 and early part of 2009. Is TEF’s current price drop an opportunity for investors to buy?
TEF is a Spanish phone company with 265 million subscribers worldwide and a market cap of over $94 billion. It has operations in Western Europe, Central America and South America. Approximately two thirds of its operations exist outside of Spain with major markets in Latin American countries and Germany. Since June of 2003 the company has issued a dividend to shareholders and consistently grown its dividend distribution. TEF is a growth and value story with one leg in a developed economy experiencing its share of turmoil, while having another leg in the developing world of Central and South America.
If you are an investor looking for a sizable and consistent dividend yield with an opportunity for share price appreciation, then TEF should be on your radar. The stock currently yields over 6% annually and the company’s management has shown their desire and will to increase the company's dividend payout. The company is diversified in its markets of operation with market share in Western Europe and developing/growing Latin American countries. This enables TEF to be in a position to support itself with cash flow from its developed market, while expanding into new areas that are poised for growth.
Beyond its dividend and its market position, TEF has a number of key statistics that make it all the more appealing as a potential investment. TEF is less volatile than the market with a beta of .85, an A- a credit rating by S&P, 2009 free cash flow of $8.8 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 9.35. The stock is currently trading at $62.26, which is roughly $9 above its 52-week low.
As an investor, if you are of the opinion that Europe is not on the precipice of economic collapse and that Central and South American markets are poised for growth in the near and long-term, then I believe given the information above, TEF might be a worthwhile addition to your portfolio. The company is at least worthy of consideration. It is a well-developed company with a stock price that appears undervalued. It offers a strong dividend and the opportunity for share price growth. As a dividend conscious investor that also loves buying companies that are well positioned to grow in value, I will admit TEF is a very large blip on my investing radar screen.
Disclosure: No position.
This article was written by http://www.themarketcapitalist.com/. You may email questions or comments to Dominico Johnston at djohnston@themarketcapitalist.com.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Stock Analysis: AT&T Inc. (T)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in T (2.6% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of AT&T Inc. (T). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: AT&T Inc. (formerly SBC Communications) provides telephone and broadband service, and the company holds full ownership of AT&T Mobility (formerly Cingular Wireless). AT&T Corp. was acquired in late 2005 and BellSouth in late 2006.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
T is trading at a discount to 1.) and 3.) above. Since T's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 6.9% discount to its calculated fair value of $26.52. T earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
T earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. T earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1984 and has increased its dividend payments for 27 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
T earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $1,737. This amount is in excess of the $800 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as T has. The stock's current yield of 6.8% exceeds the 4.02% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Other: T is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: T earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks T as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $32.25 before T's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $800 minimum that I look for in a stock with 27 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.21%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $800 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is -0.4%. This negative dividend growth rate is less than the 2.4% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. T has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
In spite of a poor economy, T has performed well over the past year. The iPhone has provided gains in consumer wireless and should continue to do so near-term. Declines in landlines will continue to pressure T, but gains in consumer wireless and broadband should help to offset these. The company has a strong balance sheet and generates good free cash flow. I will continue to strategically increase my position in T when it is trading below my buy price of $26.52 and as my allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - July 18, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Friday, July 16, 2010
Stock Analysis: Wal-Mart
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. The company is member of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials Average and the S&P Dividend Aristocrats indexes. Wal-Mart Stores has consistently increased dividends every year for 36 years. The company announced an 11% dividend raise in March 2010.


With growth slowing down, the price/earnings multiple could contract even lower. This being said I believe Wal-Mart is an excellent business, as it always investing in innovation that helps control inventory and focus on certain types of merchandise that offsets weaker demand in recessions. Despite the expected slow down in consumer spending, Wal Mart is well positioned with its diverse product mix of consumer staples and foods that it is offering on its shelves. It has lower prices in comparison to its competitors, which could drive more traffic for the retailer.Just like Walgreen (WAG), Wal-Mart Stores expects to slow down on the rate of opening new stores and instead would try to focus on developing the profitability of existing locations, without cannibalizing sales in its existing outlets.A potential growth area for the company are its international joint ventures in China, Brazil, India and Chile.

Full Disclosure: Long WMT
This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Dover Corporation – Stock Analysis Shows Slow Industrial Recovery
Dover Corporation (DOV) is a diversified manufacturer of a broad range of specialized industrial products and manufacturing equipment. The company has grown largely through acquisitions. It has four operating segments: Industrial Products (32% revenue 2009), Engineered Systems (28%), Fluid Management (22%), and Electronic Technologies (18%).
DOV's growth strategy is based on initiatives such as (1) driving organic growth which includes new products, pricing initiatives, gaining market share, customer service; (2) acquisition strategy which includes acquiring and developing platform businesses, growth, innovation, higher-than-average profit margins; (3) expanding globally, and improving operating efficiency.
DOV is a Dividend Aristocrat and member of Broad Dividend Achiever and has been raising dividends for last 56 years. The most recent dividend increase was in August 2009. It remains to be seen if dividend increases in August 2010. My objective here is to analyze if DOV still continues to be a good dividend growth stock and whether it is priced to add more.
Trend Analysis
Here I am looking at trends for past 10 years of corporation’s revenue and profitability. These parameters should show consistently growth trends. The trend charts and data summary are shown in images below.
Risk Parameter Calculation
Here I use the corporation’s financial health to assign a risk number for measuring risk-to-dividends. The risk number for risk-to-dividends is 1.86. This is a medium risk category as per my 3-point risk scale. The negative EPS growth, higher payout ratio, and current high price makes it a medium risk to dividends stocks. A lower payout ratio can make shares a low risk.
Quality of Dividends This section measures the dividend growth rate, duration of growth, consistency over a period of past five years.
Fair Value Calculation
This section determines what price I should pay to buy a given stock
Qualitative Analysis
Dover Corporation founded in 1947, based out of New York, and has been paying and growing dividends since last 56 years. What surprised me is Dover’s ability continuously grow and sustain itself with so many different acquisitions and divestitures. This demonstrates that it keeps adapting to changes in the market place.
Conclusion
I like DOV diversified revenue stream and geographical presence. Overall, it is a US based company that will provide hedge against dollar fluctuation and proxy for foreign developed/emerging markets. It has been raising dividends for last 56 years. The stock’s current risk-to-dividend rating is 1.86 (medium risk). This risk increased due to negative EPS growth in 2009 and increase in payout ratio. In addition, the current pricing of $44 is way above by buy range. While I would continue to hold my existing position, I will not be adding any new share lots until EPS grows and payout ratio reduces to its own historical average.
Full Disclosure: Long on DOV.
This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Openness Policies
As the financial news media has expounded Europe's emerging debt crisis, investors have shied away from companies with significant operations in Europe. Austerity measures are expected to hurt the economy, and so investors have looked elsewhere for opportunities. But is the European situation really that bad?
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Sources of Personal Income
Last time we talked about sources of income it was in the context of where companies get their income from. We discussed one specific company and how healthy and durable that source was.
Today, I want to talk about your personal source of income. Like companies, you too probably want to make sure you have a diversified stream of income from reliable and durable sources. For most people, that source of income consists of salary, savings accounts, stocks and bonds and perhaps even a rental property. If you have any two of these you are already better than most people on this planet in terms of income.
But chances are you're a reader of this blog because you would like to have more income. And we do cover a lot of ground regarding stocks, dividends and even real estate. But the investment world is not limited to those and perhaps you should consider adding other income streams flowing directly into your pocket.
Let's take a look at some of the possibilities.
Salary
Adding more salary to your income stream is probably something you're already doing now. Getting a raise or a bonus is what you work so hard for. We even discussed the topic of return on salary previously. But once you get it, chances are that to get another one you have to work even harder or longer. And at some point this plan doesn't scale anymore -- it can't continue to grow and grow.
So, what should you do? Get another job? Well, that's always a possibility. One can work part-time or on weekends or after-hours or double shift. But again, this only goes so far.
Is all lost then? Not at all. Keep working on (and in) your job but start to look at other possibilities too. Have you considered...
Angel investing
We discussed that by looking to invest on small or startup companies that other investors cannot invest on (because they lack the personal connections), one can even beat Warren Buffett at his own game as well as big-shot venture capitalists who are looking for the next Google and will probably miss the next corner store, butcher shop or flower stand.
If you keep your eyes peeled and your ears tuned, perhaps you could even invest in the next Walmart before the big shots. But if not that, investing in your next neighborhood bar or local gas station might be a start and a solid plan, depending on your capital and expected return.
Investment clubs
Investment clubs are nothing new. But they can be overlooked by many investors because investing often feels like it should be a solitary activity. Nonsense! Investment clubs can actually scale better than solo investing because by pooling together people with similar goals, it's easier to benefit from each other's knowledge and time to analyze companies and find new opportunities.
Often times, investment clubs that are flexible enough may even want to pool their resources together to invest in private companies, do some angel investing or move into real estate.
The benefit is clear: leverage each other's time, money and all get to share the benefit of new ideas from others who may think alike but do so independently.
Start your own business
This is also a topic I've alluded to before but have yet to discuss further. Opening up your own business -- whether part-time or home-based -- can be easier and safer than one imagines.
First, there are many businesses that don't require huge upfront investments nor huge effort or high cost to operate. And while one may think these are easy to replicate and thus should return close to zero to their owners, think again. The trick is to do something you love or have a strong interest in or something you'd love to have but somehow is not available yet or is not easy to get in your area. Or you just need to do it better than the competition. In many cases, you don't need to do all of these, so long as you have the passion or interest.
Let's just consider a few examples that are close to me. I'm sure you can think of a hundred other example of small businesses that you could create easily and that are meaningful to you.
Growing escargot. Yeah, the slimy snails that some people love to eat (especially the french). Turns out my dad used to create escargot in our backyard when I was little. He had plans to sell them, but he never developed the business around it and chose to eat them all instead. Growing escargot is easy -- they reproduce faster than rabbits -- and extremely cheap -- they eat lettuce and other greens. If you have even a medium-sized backyard, you can build a little shed and grow escargot in simple to build boxes. Just make sure you have all the necessary sanitary and business permits and you could sell them fresh or frozen to your local specialty store, restaurants or even grocery shop chains.
Pizza dough. Growing up, I remember us buying pre-made pizza dough from a friend's neighbor. They made the dough at home and packaged them in four or fives and sold them to order. If I were to do this today I'd probably offer multiple options such as whole wheat, yeast-free, gluten-free, special multi-grains, vegan. All organic and natural and 100% preservative-free.
The pill. Yes, believe it or not I have a friend whose grandparents used to make women's anticonceptional pills at home. They had all the permits and licenses and sold them under their own brand name. They never felt much competition from the big brands because they had their local niche market. I would probably be more careful on this one given the risks, but with proper knowledge and insurance this just comes to show that one can get as entrepreneurial as one wants. The sky is the limit.
Homemade jewelry. I actually know two people (not related to each other in anyway) who used to make earrings, rings, pendants and other jewelry at home or at small local shops from cheap metals or semi-precious ones, with semi-precious stones or other good-looking materials. In one case, the person would sell everything she could make to big-name retailers who would sell under their exotic or one-of-a-kind departments.
There. Four small but very real ventures created and run by people like you and me, most of which had a job and a family to attend to.
Know how to cook? Love dogs? Can build children's toys out of stuff in your backyard? Can teach piano lessons over the internet? What are you waiting for?
This article was written by EPIC INVESTOR. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Monday, July 12, 2010
Stock Analysis: Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in PNY (0.0% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Piedmont Natural Gas (PNY). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: Piedmont Natural Gas is a energy services company that distributes natural gas to 1,016,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers in portions of North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
PNY is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. The stock is trading at a slight discount to its calculated fair value of $26.17. PNY earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
PNY earned one Star in this section for 3.) above. The Star earned was for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1956 and has increased its dividend payments for 32 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
PNY earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $616. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as PNY has. The stock's current yield of 4.27% exceeds the 4.02% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Other: PNY is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: PNY earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned one Star in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of three Stars. This quantitatively ranks PNY as a 3 Star-Hold.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $27.49 before PNY's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 32 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.04%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 3.2%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 3.7% used in this analysis, thus providing a slight margin of safety. PNY has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
PNY enjoys a simple business model within a stable market. I have been looking to increase my utility allocation, but have been uncomfortable with the underlying financials. At 3 Stars PNY is, by far, the highest ranked utility that I follow. At 52%, its debt to total capital is slightly above the 45% I prefer, but is not out of line with other utilities. Its free cash flow payout of 34% is well below the 60% maximum I look for and its 4 years if negative free cash flow in the last 10 years compares favorable with other utilities. Although the stocks dividend yield at 4.27% is lower than several others, its dividend growth rate of 3.74% is much higher. Overall, PNY is worthy of additional consideration when it is trading below my buy price of $26.17 and as my allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
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