Value investors can spend a lot of time evaluating the quality of a company's management. We look at management's track record, and attempt to gauge the level of management's candor in providing information to shareholders.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
The Buyout Factor
Monday, June 28, 2010
Stock Analysis: Nucor Corporation (NUE)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in NUE (2.68% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Nucor Corporation (NUE). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: Nucor Corporation is engaged in the manufacture and sale of steel and steel products. As the largest minimill steelmaker in the U.S., Nucor has one of the most diverse product lines of any steelmaker in the Americas.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
NUE is trading at a discount to only 1.) above. The stock is trading at a 56.4% premium to its calculated fair value of $26.72. NUE did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
NUE earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. NUE earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2000-2003, 2001-2004, 2002-2005, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 37 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
NUE earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $10,213. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as NUE has. If NUE grows its dividend at 15.0% per year, it will take 2 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.02%. NUE earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 2 years is less than the 5 year target.
Other: NUE is a member of the S&P 500 and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: NUE did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks NUE as a 4 Star-Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $116.14 before NUE's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 37 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.24%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.4%. This dividend growth rate is significantly less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a large margin of safety. NUE has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
Like many industrials, NUE's earnings and cash flow have declined over the last two years. However, the company is well managed with a solid share in its markets, a very low ratio of total debt to capital percentage and a very diverse product mix. The company’s pay-for-performance and low-cost operations have helped mitigate weak demand in the most recent downturn. The stock is currently trading well above my buy price of $26.72. NUE is a great company, but this is not a great time to buy. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - June 27, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Friday, June 25, 2010
McDonald’s Stock Analysis
McDonald’s Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, franchises and operates McDonald’s restaurants in the food service industry worldwide. The company's share of the US fast food market is several times larger than its closest competitors, Burger King (BKC) and Wendy's (WEN).
McDonald’s is a major component of the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials indexes. The company is also a dividend aristocrat, which has been consistently increasing its dividends for 33 consecutive years. McDonald’s is one of the world’s most recognizable brands. Because of this and because it has performed very well to stockholders over the years, it is one of the most widely held income stocks by dividend investors.
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an annual average total return of 8.70% to its shareholders.
At the same time company has managed to deliver an impressive 12.20% average annual increase in its EPS since 2000. Analysts are expecting MCD to grow EPS to $4.49 by 2010 and $4.87 in 2011.. The economic slowdown is making consumers to trade down and dine out at fast food places like the ones owned by the Golden Arches. Mcdonald’s has been focusing more on expanding the sales of existing restaurants since 2003 versus relying on new stores to be the driver for growth. Same store sales and profits have been driven by product innovation, and comparable-store sales growth, and are part of the company’s recent success. The constant innovations in the menu are indeed fueling strong same store sales volumes. The McCafe Offerings, in addition to the Dollar Breakfast Menu and Restaurant remodeling are further fuelling the growth in sales.
International operations, which accounted for almost half of operating profits in 2008, have been a major growth factor over the past two decades. This however exposes the company to fluctuations in exchange rates, which could add or detract from EPS performance. MCD's stated operating priorities include fixing operating inadequacies in existing restaurants; taking a more integrated and focused approach to growth, with an emphasis on increasing sales, margins and returns in existing restaurants; and ensuring the correct operating structure and resources, aligned behind focusing priorities that create benefits for its customers and restaurants.
The ROE has been increasing since it hit a low of 14 in 2002. Recently it hit 30%, and has stayed above that level for two consecutive years.
Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 28.20% annually since 2000, which is almost two and a half times higher than the growth in EPS.
A 28 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every two and a half years. Since 1979 McDonald’s has actually managed to double its dividend payment almost every four and a half years on average. Future dividend payments would likely grow at 10% for the foreseeable future.
The dividend payout ratio has steadily increased over the past decade, due to the fact the dividend growth was much faster than earnings growth. Currently the payout is at 50% . A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings. The slow growth in earnings could put future dividend increases at risk.
McDonald’s is currently attractively valued. The stock trades at a P/E of 16.50, yields 3.10% and has an adequately covered dividend payment. The company has proven to be somewhat recession resistant. I would be a buyer of MCD at current prices.
Full Disclosure: Long MCD
Relevant Articles:
- Five Consumer Stocks for 2010
- Capitalize on China’s Growth with these dividend stocks
- A dividend portfolio for the long-term
- Dividend Investing Works in All Markets
This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
The Buyout Factor
Value investors can spend a lot of time evaluating the quality of a company's management. We look at management's track record, and attempt to gauge the level of management's candor in providing information to shareholders.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Some Recent Dividend News - in Video
A video source I like to head to is from the folks over at MarketNewsVideo.com, and specifically their 'Dividend Channel'. Each week they post a pretty good review of the most influencial dividend news from the prior week. In last week's, they cover the recent dividend increase for Annaly Capital Management.
This article was written by The Dividend Guy. To learn more about dividend investing, please follow my RSS feed or Twitter account.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Stock Analysis: Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in CINF (0.00% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: Cincinnati Financial Corp. markets primarily property and casualty coverage; it also conducts life insurance and asset management operations.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
CINF is trading at a discount to 2.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.8% discount to its calculated fair value of $34.00. CINF earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
CINF earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. CINF earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1954 and has increased its dividend payments for 50 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
CINF earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $581. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as CINF has. The stock's current yield of 5.59% exceeds the 4.02% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Other: CINF is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: CINF earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks CINF as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $29.44 before CINF's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 50 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 5.37%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 0.2%. This dividend growth rate is slightly less than the 0.6% used in this analysis, thus providing a small margin of safety. CINF has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
CINF was founded by independent insurance agents in order to better service their needs by providing them preferential treatment when picking an underwriter. The company primarily sells commercial property-casualty insurance with a smaller personal lines exposure marketed through a select group of about 1,100 independent insurance agencies. Like most financial services companies, CINF has seen its share of struggles. Back in December 2009 when I last looked at CINF, its Free Cash Flow payout of 78% turned me away from giving it serious consideration. Since then, the company has worked its FCF payout down to its present level of 47%. The stock has now earned the right for serious consideration when it is trading below its buy price of $34.00. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - June 20, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Johnson & Johnson Stock Analysis
Johnson & Johnson engages in the research and development, manufacture, and sale of various products in the health care field worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices and Diagnostics. Johnson & Johnson is a major component of the S&P 500, Dow Industrials and the Dividend Aristocrats Indexes. One of the company’s largest shareholders includes Warren Buffett. JNJ has been consistently increasing its dividend for 48 consecutive years. Dividend author Dave Van Knapp has also included the company in his most recent book "The Top 40 Dividend Stocks for 2010".
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered a 4.90% average annual total return to its shareholders.
At the same time company has managed to deliver a 11.10% average annual increase in its EPS since 2000. Analysis expect a 9.80% increase in EPS to $4.83 in 2010, follow by an 8% increase to $5.23 in 2011.
Johnson & Johnson is the first stock that comes to mind when illustrating the benefits of dividend investing. The company has been enormously successful, has a strong competitive advantage and as a result has managed to boost distributions for 48 consecutive years. It is no surprise that it is found in the portfolios of most dividend investors. The company’s sales and earnings growth would be driven by the company’s ongoing acquisition program, its pharmaceutical pipeline as well as expansion in emerging markets. Remicade and Stelara are two drugs which could fuel growth in sales, as is a new blood thinner drug under development, which would prevent strokes in patients. The company should do well due to its diversified revenues coming from drugs, consumer products and medical devices. Despite its size, Johnson & Johnson is highly innovative and aggressively funding new product development in order to maintain leadership positions.
The ROE has remained largely between 25% and 30%, with the exception of 2006 and 2007.
Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 13.40% annually since 2000, which is much higher than the growth in EPS. A 14% growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling almost every five years. Since 1971 JNJ has indeed managed to double its dividend payment every 5 years.
The dividend payout ratio has remained in a range between 36% and 45%. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
I would keep accumulating JNJ stock as long as it trades below $86.
This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Bouncing Off Bad News
When a stock's earnings reporting date nears, its volatility can increase as anxious investors start betting on whether the past quarter was kind to the company. Some earnings misses can result in double-digit drops to a company's stock price, while earnings beats have the potential to be huge boosters for stock prices. Investors, of course, can't tell in advance whether an earnings report will deliver good news or bad news; nevertheless, the investor can put himself in a position such that he is somewhat protected from downside events.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
How Healthy is Your Dividend
Up in Canada, one of the financial journalists I like to follow is John Heinzl. The reason is quite simple: he is a proponent of the dividend investing strategy and I have learned a lot about the strategy from him. In this video he talks about one of the important ratios that can indicate how healthy a dividend is coming from a particular company - the dividend payout ratio.
To view this video you will need to click through this link or the image capture below as the Globeinvestor.com does not allow people to embed their videos (which they really should do).
This article was written by The Dividend Guy. To learn more about dividend investing, please follow my RSS feed or Twitter account.
Monday, June 14, 2010
Stock Analysis: RPM International Inc. (RPM)
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I held no position in RPM (0.00% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of RPM International Inc. (RPM). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: RPM International Inc. makes specialty coatings and products for the structural waterproofing and corrosion control markets, as well as products for the consumer, do-it-yourself and hobby markets.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
RPM is trading at a discount to only 3.) above. Since RPM's tangible book value is not meaningful, a Graham number can not be calculated. The stock is trading at a 21.8% premium to its calculated fair value of $15.33. RPM did not earn any Stars in this section.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
RPM earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. RPM earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1969 and has increased its dividend payments for 37 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
RPM earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $548. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as RPM has. The stock's current yield of 4.37% exceeds the 4.02% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.
Other: RPM is a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: RPM did not earn any Stars in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of four Stars. This quantitatively ranks RPM as a 4 Star-Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $19.12 before RPM's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 37 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 4.26%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 2.9%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 3.2% used in this analysis, thus providing a significant margin of safety. RPM has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
Historically, RPM has relied on its diverse product offerings to generate consistent free cash flow over the economic cycle. The company has competitive advantages in its coatings markets based on its strong brand identity, high entry barriers, patents and reputation. However, I have concerns about outstanding asbestos-related lawsuits and its current valuation. RPM is trading well above my buy price of $15.33, so for now I will remain on the sidelines. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - June 13, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Friday, June 11, 2010
Air Products and Chemicals Stock analysis
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. offers atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, performance materials, and equipment and services worldwide. The company is member of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P Dividend Aristocrats indexes. Air Products and Chemicals has paid uninterrupted dividends on its common stock since 1954 and increased payments to common shareholders every year for 28 years.
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an average total return of 11.80% to its shareholders.
The company has managed to deliver a 20.20% average annual increase in its EPS over the past decade, largely due to low earnings in 2000. Analysts are expecting an increase in EPS to $4.98 for 2010 and $5.63 by 2011. This would be a nice increase from the 2009 earnings per share of $3.
The company is one of the largest producers of industrial gases and also owns a large specialty chemicals business. The potential areas of growth include growth in industrial gases, including electronics, hydrogen for petroleum refining, health care and Asian operations. The market for industrial gases gas increased at double the rate of the economy over the past years, which could be another driver of revenue growth. Air Products and Chemicals has announced its intent to acquire Airgas (ARG) in an unfriendly take-over in February 2010. This deal could benefit the company through cost savings if successful.
The Return on Equity has been stable around 15% over the past decade. Rather than focus on absolute values for this indicator, I generally want to see at least a stable return on equity over time.
Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 10.30% since 2000, which is lower than the growth in EPS. The company last raised its dividend by 8.90% in February 2010, for the 28th year in a row.
A 10 % growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every seven years. If we look at historical data, going as far back as 1983, Air Products and Chemicals has indeed managed to double its dividend payment every seven years on average.
The dividend payout ratio remained below 50% for the majority of the past decade, with the exception of 2000 and 2009. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings.
Currently Air Products and Chemicals is trading at 17.30 times earnings and yields 2.90%. In comparison Praxair (PX) trades at a P/E multiple of 19 and yields 2.40%. I consider Air Products and Chemicals attractively valued at the moment.
Full Disclosure: Long APD
Relevant Articles:
- Coca Cola (KO) Dividend Stock Analysis
- 3M Company (MMM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- United Technologies (UTX) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Emerson Electric (EMR) Dividend Stock Analysis
This article was written by Dividend Growth Investor. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Indian Economy – Reasons for Better Expected Returns
To me, it does not make sense to club BRIC together for investing purposes. Each country should be looked at individual entity. China continues to receive most attention in the press, however, I believe its India that provides a much better option for small individual investors. Following are three reasons I believe India has relatively more fundamental strength than other countries.
- Inward Consumption Based Growth: India’s economy is consumption oriented when compared to other emerging markets. India’s export contributes less than 15% to its $1.2T GDP. The IT outsourcing services and back office has garnered most of the business media coverage; however, these industries have less than 8% contribution to the GDP and employ less than 5 million people. This is an indicator of growth by internal production and consumption. It is less reliant on exports. Quite contrarily, these technology services perform better in recession, because it is all about optimizing operational cost.
- Conservative Central Bank: Its Reserve Bank (a.ka. central bank) has very conservative monetary policy, which is why we did not see failure of the banks (or banking system) during recent financial melt down. There were no widespread bank bailouts.
- Transparency: It has democratic governance which on many occasions slows down the decision making progress, but provides better transparency (relative to Russia and China). As of today, its currency is freely convertible for trading goods and services, but there are certain restrictions for international asset acquisition. However, it has a pragmatic roadmap to allow its currency to fully float with market dynamics. In 2007 and 2008, when Dollar dropped against Indian Rupee, Indian export started becoming uncompetitive.
- Government Stimulus Driven Growth is Less: The Indian market has rebounded in line with other emerging markets like China or Brazil. An earlier fear of bubble seems to be a just – a fear. It’s economy indicator suggest it is back of growth. The key in this rebound is; not much is being supported by government driven expenditure or public infrastructure projects. In fact, it continues to stumble on its infrastructure.
Having said that, I believe, individual investors should use ETF based investment vehicles for India (or any other emerging markets) which invest in array of companies and have less fees and commissions. Keeping with this thought process, I use Wisdom Tree India based ETF, EPI. You may read more about my reasons for selecting EPI for this objective.
This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Jade Art
Jade is a stone used for a variety of ornamental purposes, especially in Asia. Demand for jade extends from the construction industry to the jewelry industry. Jade Art Group (JADA) is a distributor of jade with a market cap of $30 million, and an annual profit of $13 million.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
BP and a Dividend at Risk
BP, the oil and gas company, is in a world of hurt these days. Never mind the environmental destruction going on (which is huge and a total shame), but the company financially will be hurt for some time to come. At risk for dividend investors is of course, the dividend. In this video, the topic of BP's dividend comes up. As with all dividend companies, there are many things beyond our control that can impact a company's ability to pay its dividend. Diversification is paramount.
This article was written by The Dividend Guy. To learn more about dividend investing, please follow my RSS feed or Twitter account.
Monday, June 7, 2010
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Dividend Stock Analysis
Full Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in MCD (3.34% of my Income Portfolio). See a list of all my income holdings here.
Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of McDonald's Corporation (MCD). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:
Company Description: McDonald's Corporation is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world. Its restaurants serve a varied, yet limited, value-priced menu in more than 100 countries around the world.
Fair Value: I consider four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
MCD is trading at a discount to 2.) and 3.) above. The stock is trading at a 22.5% discount to its calculated fair value of $86.10. MCD earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.
Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
MCD earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. MCD earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15% means that dividends grew on average in excess of 15% for each consecutive 4 year period over the last 10 years (2000-2003, 2001-2004, 2002-2005, etc.) I consider this a key metric since dividends will double every 5 years if they grow by 15%. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1976 and has increased its dividend payments for 34 consecutive years.
Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA)? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:
MCD earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $8,933. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as MCD has. If MCD grows its dividend at 15.0% per year, it will take 2 years to equal a MMA yielding an estimated 20-year average rate of 4.02%. MCD earned a check for the Key Metric 'Years to >MMA' since its 2 years is less than the 5 year target.
Other: MCD is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat and a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers™ Index.
Conclusion: MCD earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks MCD as a 5 Star-Strong Buy.
Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price could increase to $177.44 before MCD's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 34 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 1.24%.
Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.8%. This dividend growth rate is less than the 15.0% used in this analysis, thus providing a significant margin of safety. MCD has a risk rating of 1.50 which classifies it as a low risk stock.
MCD is the dominant brand in the global fast food industry. In addition to is strong brand, the company enjoys unrivaled scale advantages and substantial international growth opportunities. The company notes on their website that since going public in 1965, it has paid twelve stock splits and an investment of $2,250 in 100 shares at that time, grew to 74,360 shares worth over $4.6 million as of year-end market close on December 31, 2009. This stock is truly one of the great success stories for dividend growth investors and is found in virtually all dividend income based portfolios. I will continue to add to my position in MCD when it is trading below my buy price, which is currently $86.10, and as my allocation allows. For additional information, including the stock's dividend history, please refer to its data page.
Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information.
Recent Stock Analyses:
This article was written by Dividends4Life. If you enjoyed this article, please subscribe to my feed [RSS], or have future articles emailed to you [Email] or follow me on Twitter [Twitter].
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Weekend Reading Links - June 6, 2010
For your weekend reading pleasure, the articles listed below contain some of the best dividend and value investing insights found on the web. They were written by various members of the Dividend Investing and Value Network over the past week:
Articles From DIV-Net Members
There are some really good articles here, please take time and read a few of them.
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Investing in BP after the spill
I bought BP shares this past week. In some ways the decision was dead easy, in other ways I must admit that I am still questioning my choice- but not for the regular reasons. Let me explain to you first why it was an easy decision (my rational side) and then lets talk about why it was a tough decision (let's call it my emotional side).
Buying BP was an easy decision
At my target price BP shares would pay a 9.5% dividend, with a great price to book, price to sales, and P/E to name a few stats. They are undoubtedly a solid company with great assets and leadership that has performed well in the past. Even if the dividend was cut in half I would still be content to hold this as a long term investment.
The media has made light of the 'we are going to nail BP to the wall' attitude that the Obama administration has adopted over the last few weeks, but lets look at the facts. The sinking of the Exxon Valdez in 1989 took 20 years to reach the final court settlement of a paltry $500M, plus the estimated $2B that Exxon spent on cleanup and legal costs. While times have certainly changed in the last 20 years the corporate laws haven't. Don't get me wrong I am quite certain BP will have to pay but there are many factors to the case:
To summarize, despite the media's spin it isn't too likely BP is going to go bankrupt, that their market is going to disappear, or that they are going to be the target of a hostile takeover. Based on this reality and the strong company that is standing here buying BP was an easy decision.
Buying BP was a hard decision
I don't have a ton of moral rules when it comes to investing but there are certain stocks I simply am not interested in owning at any price- such as those directly involved with tobacco, or the production of weapons. I just don't feel comfortable becoming directly involved and profiting from these businesses. BP is an oil based business, this product has been central to wars, genocide, supporting despots, a whole lithergy of negativity. This and, of course, they are the company who's employees appear by early accounts to be primarily responsible for the current destruction occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. This all leaves me feeling a bit uncomfortable with the whole prospect of direct investment in BP.
I have commented before that investing is often a battle been the investor's rational and irrational sides. My hope is that BP continues to be a strong and profitable company, I also hope though that BP takes the task of cleaning up the mess it has made and undoing the harm it has caused just as seriously. How did you feel about investing in BP?
This article was written by buyingvalue. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Royal Dutch Shell Stock Analysis
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDS.A)(RDS.B) operates as an oil and gas company worldwide. The company explores for, and extracts crude oil and natural gas. The company is not on any dividend indices, despite its long history of consistent dividend increases. Any analysis of earnings trends for an oil and gas producer such as Royal Dutch Shell would definitely depend on the future prices of energy commodities over the next few years. Nevertheless the dividend is sustainable at current levels and there definitely is some room for dividend growth in 2011 and beyond. The dividend payout ratio has followed the trend in earnings and returns on equity. It largely remained below 50%, until it rose to 75% on a temporary dip in earnings in 2009.. A lower payout is always a plus, since it leaves room for consistent dividend growth minimizing the impact of short-term fluctuations in earnings. Currently the company is trading at a P/E of 11 and yields 6.70%. In contrast shares of British Petroleum (BP) trade at a P/E of 6 and yield 9.20%, while Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) trade at P/E ratios of 11 and 14 respectively and yield 3.90% and 2.90%. Full Disclosure: Long BP, CVX, RDS-B and XOM
Over the past decade this dividend stock has delivered an annual average total return of 5.10% to its shareholders.
There are two classes of shares – A and B(RDS.A and RDS.B). For US investors it is a much better option to invest in the B shares, since those do not come with a 15% withholding tax from the Dutch government. You could here about the difference between A and B shares. In addition to that, each Royal Dutch Shell American Depository Receipt (ADR) is equal to two shares, traded on London or Amsterdam.
At the same time the company has managed to deliver a 1.10% average annual increase in its EPS since 2000. The increase in prices of crude oil and natural gas definitely helped with earnings. The rapid fall of energy prices in late 2008 and early 2009 and weak global demand led to a 52% decrease in earnings per share in 2009 to $4.09. For fiscal year 2010 analysts expect earnings to increase by 41% to $5.75/share. Analysts also expect earnings per share to rise 25% from there to $7.16/share by FY 2011. The company is in the process of selling or closing unprofitable refineries it owns, which weigh in on its margins. It has also cut 10% of its global workforce, which added to other cost savings initiatives led to $1 billion in savings. The company is increasing its Canadian Oil Sands production, and doubling its Liquified Natural Gas capacity in Russia and Qatar.
Returns on Equity decreased to 9.50% in 2009, after a few years of consistently being above 15%. Year over year this indicator will fluctuate, due to the changes in the value of oil and natural gas. The company should be able to generate sufficient average returns on equity in excess of 15% in the long run.
Annual dividend payments have increased by an average of 12% annually in US dollar terms since 2000, which is higher than the growth in EPS. The reason for this is that earnings have a much higher volatility than dividend payments.
A 12% growth in dividends translates into the dividend payment doubling every six years. Since 1988 Royal Dutch Shell has actually managed to double its dividend payment almost every eleven years on average. The company last raised its quarterly dividend by 5 % to 84 cents/share in 2009.
The reason why the company has not been included on any dividend indices is because it was a result of the merger of Royal Dutch with Shell in 2005. It switched from paying dividends in pounds and euro to paying dividends in US dollars. This probably ended the continuity in many stock databases as it required a manual input from analysts. Per the table below, Royal Dutch Shell has managed to boost distributions at least since 1993.
The fact that Royal Dutch isn’t on any of the international dividend growth indices shows you that enterprising dividend investors should keep their eyes open at all times while searching for opportunities everywhere. Overly relying on mechanical rules, just like relying solely on your judgment, might be a recipe for disaster. While many successful dividend investors have some mechanical aspects to their trading, they also utilize their judgment in order to select the best dividend stocks in the world.
- Chevron Corporation (CVX) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- 3M Company (MMM) Dividend Stock Analysis
- Best Canadian Dividend Stocks
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Emerson Electric Company – Stock Analysis for Dividend Growth Portfolio
Emerson Electric Company (EMR) is a diversified global manufacturing and technology company. It offers wide range of products and services in the areas of process management, climate technologies, network power, storage solutions, professional tools, appliance solutions, motor technologies, and industrial automation. It is recognized for engineering capabilities and management excellence, Emerson has more than 140,000 employees and approximately 255 manufacturing locations worldwide.
EMR is a Dividend Aristocrat and member of Broad Dividend Achiever and has been raising dividends for last 53 years. The most recent dividend increase was in November 2009. I have a long position in EMR. My objective here is (1) analyze if EMR still continues to be a good dividend growth stock; (2) how does it rate on my scale of risk-to-dividends; and (3) whether can I continue to add to my existing positions.
Trend Analysis
Here I am looking at trends for past 10 years of corporation’s revenue and profitability. These parameters should show consistently growth trends. The trend charts and data summary are shown in images below.
Risk Parameter Calculation
Here I use the corporation’s financial health to assign a risk number for measuring risk-to-dividends. The risk number for risk-to-dividends is 1.86. This is a medium risk category (albeit very close to being a low risk) as per my 3-point risk scale. The drop in revenue, drop in operating margin, and increase in payout factor makes this as medium risk. Since FCF continues to be good and all earlier payouts were low, this is likely to be low risk in 2010 and beyond.
Quality of Dividends
This section measures the dividend growth rate, duration of growth, consistency over a period of past ten years.
Fair Value Calculation
This section determines what price I should pay to buy a given stock
- Net present value (NPV) price based on 15 year DCF: $46
- Average high yield price calculated based on past 10 years: $49
- Pricing based on past 10 year relative price-to-earnings ratio: $39
- Pricing based on price-to-earnings ratio of 12: $32
- Graham number: $11.6
The range of fair value is calculated as $28 to $37.
Qualitative Analysis
Emerson Electric Co. was founded in 1890, based out of Missouri, and has been paying and growing dividends since last 52 years. What surprised me was EMR’s evolution, its ability to sustain margins and grow, and worldwide reach.
- Its revenue is pretty diversified in eight product sectors and four global regions. Approximately 23% of its revenue comes from Asia and Latin America.
- It continues to have stable gross and operating margins. It generates relatively consistent operating and free cash flows. 2009 FCF was higher than last year, primarily due to cost reduction efforts.
- After drop in 2009 earnings seems be slowly recovering in 2010.
- I believe its strong balance sheet will allow it to continue to wither the slow down and enable its expansion in other geographical markets.
Conclusion
I like EMR’s diversified revenue stream and geographical presence. Overall, it is a US based company that will provide hedge against dollar fluctuation and proxy for foreign developed/emerging markets. It has been raising dividends for last 53 years. EMR’s end-markets are cyclic and it appears that it knows how to wither such business environments. It has a strong balance sheet and competitive market positioning. The stock’s current risk-to-dividend rating is 1.86 (medium risk). The current pricing of $46 is at 27% premium to the high price I am willing to pay for EMR. I would be open to add to my existing position when EMR is near my buy range.
Full Disclosure: Long on EMR.
This article was written by Dividend Tree. If you enjoyed this article, please vote for it by clicking the Buzz Up! button below.
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